Please Report To The Psych Ward!

So Thor triggered on crude a few days ago and after weeks of sideways pain I wasn’t particularly thrilled. But nevertheless the entry was taken according to Thor’s tested trading rules. The day after didn’t serve much to change my initial outlook:


What would YOU expect to happen next? Exactly. Señor Mole, please report to the psych ward!


Except that I don’t listen to my emotions (ask Mrs. Evil) – and was rewarded a little over a session later. That’s another 2R in the bank. Moral of the story: emotions = bad – system trading rules = good.

While we’re on the subject – I have been a busy bee and am about to unveil a little goodie for you Thor subs.

See you on the other side of my trades.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


Creative Criticism

After yesterday’s introduction of Thor I received quite a bit of input and various follow up questions via email, most of them supportive and encouraging. However despite best intensions and having worked countless hours to produce the best trading systems possible there is always someone who doubts my/our professional integrity or simply jumps to hasty conclusions when things catch a rough spot. Nothing new and I’ve developed quite a thick skin since I started this blog.

As you can imagine over the past few years I have faced my share of criticism, some constructive, and some simply borne out of frustration or envy. Putting yourself out there will invariably invite detractors over time – nobody is perfect and we all make mistakes or things often don’t go over as you planned them. Most of it I simply fade out, however I didn’t want you to miss out on this little jewel I received early this morning. Actually that person sent me two similar messages in succession (he must have hit the send button too early) and after reading them both I thought that some of you may actually be sharing his (or her) opinion. Be this as it may I decided to post my answers right here in the open:



I was reading about thor. Am happy to pay you $500 per month but get it right.

You guys keep claiming big things and nothing works. CI was touted as 30R per pair per year. It is at 29R overall. The SQN i measured was 1.3. Some website out there has already ranked your SQN at 1.3.

Heisenberg was touted as another big thing. What a flop that was.

Then came Darth mole. The comment then was “this will change your trading..”.

Now we have Thor….


Now we have thor. The touted SQN is 3.5. Do you know what 3.5 means? Absolute gem of a system. Do you think you guys have that.

Atleast publish some results. Actual trading results. All we have is some word about scot. Scot is made out to be the some brilliant guy except that all his previous products are failures.

Ok now we have thor. Lets see where it goes. Is it just about making a quick buck of fees? Because then you guys will just be like some other forex blog.

In my opinion there cannot be innovation that came to your mind that all of a sudden makes you 3.5. Gi ve it 6 months like CI and it will be at 1.3. If this innovation is so good, why cant you apply it on CI and make it atleast recover something? It has lost 30 R in 60 days. All this while guys like ashraf laidi are making 30% and 40% in a month. And his results are published and verfiied unlike yours which is just your word. In my opinion, get the system right, publish results and then start charging.

You guys are sitting on a timebomb waiting for someone to put a post on FPA or somewhere where people who have lost money of your CI will start ranting.


Okay, so let me take this on piece by piece if I may – I’ll be quick and to the point. If you think my responses are attempts to bend the truth then I invite you to add your comments below. That’s what it’s there for.

“I was reading about thor. Am happy to pay you $500 per month but get it right.”

Heck, don’t tempt me :-)

“You guys keep claiming big things and nothing works. CI was touted as 30R per pair per year. It is at 29R overall. The SQN i measured was 1.3. Some website out there has already ranked your SQN at 1.3.”

He’s right - since Jan 1st 2014 Crazy Ivan has tickled the 50R mark in late March and then proceeded to drive us nuts for the remainder of the year. It’s currently at 29.99R – in the plus – here’s the profit graph:


It’s been a tough year for Crazy Ivan but may I point out that it is still in the plus for the year. All campaigns are being logged in real-time via Google spreadsheets. If a campaign ends and logs its results the spreadsheet will be updated a few seconds later.

I agree that Crazy Ivan has been through a rough spot in the past six month (then again if you call sideways rough – perception is subjective and usually involves recency bias) and there are currently only a handful of subscribers left. Actually I’m surprised that those guys are still subbed as Scott told me from the get-go that very few of you would be able to sit through an extended sideways period, let alone a real drawdown (e.g. 20R+). We projected 30R per year on average and we’re clearly behind – odds are we’re going to be closing the year below that goal. Then again this year ain’t over yet and this is nothing out of the ordinary.

Perhaps we’ll close 10R above today’s mark or perhaps we’ll close 10R below it – neither scenario would surprise me and it is to be expected for Crazy Ivan. Scott in particular has been very outspoken regarding the fact that CI can be very tough to follow emotionally. After all he’s traded it for about a decade and it often pushed him to the edge.

At the danger of re-heating old material – I think this is a perfect opportunity to once again reset all our expectations and perhaps remind you of the cumulative big picture approach we are favoring here at Evil Speculator. Watch the video above – the good part starts at the 38 minute mark but I recommend that you really watch all of it. Nick Radge makes some very brilliant point and I consider this clip a must see for anyone even thinking about trading automated systems or joining a fund.

Anyway, CrazyIvan is currently only 29R in the plus for the year and we are being criticized. Can you imagine the emails I or a guy like Nick Radge would receive if there was a negative year? Or perhaps two in a row? That thought makes me question the wisdom of offering any trading systems to anyone here. Scott for one keeps advising me to close the blog and simply trade my own money or start a small fund.

“Heisenberg was touted as another big thing. What a flop that was.”

90% of Thor actually is based on Heisenberg – it took me approximately one year to implement all the rules and test various market categorization criteria. We released it into beta for about two weeks – for free of course. Then we realized that it was not performing as expected and immediately decided to dispense with sending alerts. Let me also point out that we repeatedly stated that nobody should take any live trades during the free beta testing period. After an additional six months of blood, sweat, and tears, Scott started to trade a slightly adjusted rule set which we now call Thor. I watched him turn $600k into $840k in 60 days and then decided that, in combination with 7 years of backtested results, it was sufficient evidence to implement the updated rules into the old codebase. It only took me one week to convert Heisenberg into Thor which speaks to its similarity.

Then came Darth mole. The comment then was “this will change your trading..”.

DarthMole is running as we speak – it’s still available for FREE after more than six weeks. It’s not a trading system and its job is to predict price volatility – nothing else. Here’s a snapshot of the current live grid – a few symbols are missing as I’m running them on a separate workspace:


Look at those charts – I personally would call this nothing short of sensational. The reason I haven’t talked much about it here in the past few weeks is that on top of my blogging and trading duties I have been putting in 14+ hours every single day on a my machine learning project and most recently decided to take on Thor as well. It is not my fault that very few of you are realizing the significance of this. Being able to predict price volatility is huge.

Which in part also enforces our opinion that only a small number of people reading this will be successful trading Thor or any other system out there. As Richard Dennis once put it so aptly:  “I always say that you could publish my rules in a newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is constancy and discipline. Almost anybody can make up a set of rules 80% as good as, what we qualified our people. What they couldn’t do is give them the self-confidence to stick to that system even when things are going bad.”

Now we have thor. The touted SQN is 3.5. Do you know what 3.5 means? Absolute gem of a system. Do you think you guys have that.

Yes, we know what SQN means – as a matter of fact I keep pointing people toward a pertinent page that explains the formula step by step. I’m not trying to be funny or sarcastic here – we are all about SQN/expectancy here.

Atleast publish some results. Actual trading results. All we have is some word about scot. Scot is made out to be the some brilliant guy except that all his previous products are failures.

Here are Scott’s statements for the year in PDF format. He asked me go ahead and make them publicly available on the blog. May I also point out that Scott has been posting daily snapshots of his trading account in the comment section since he started trading HammerTime – which I renamed Thor.

Ok now we have thor. Lets see where it goes. Is it just about making a quick buck of fees? Because then you guys will just be like some other forex blog.

Do I really have to answer this? I guess I do… And NO – actually I have been wondering whether or not it actually makes sense at all to offer this as a sub and it’s part of the reason I am reducing access to it and only will allow 100 subs ever. Some of you are clearly ill prepared to trade automated systems and a few of you should not be trading at all. You tell me! Perhaps it’s best to wait six months or more until we have a more extended track record. In the end you can always choose to wait until then, actually I strongly encourage you that you do just that.

In my opinion there cannot be innovation that came to your mind that all of a sudden makes you 3.5. Gi ve it 6 months like CI and it will be at 1.3. If this innovation is so good, why cant you apply it on CI and make it atleast recover something? It has lost 30 R in 60 days. All this while guys like xxx xxx [name omitted as I don't permit implicit advertising] are making 30% and 40% in a month. And his results are published and verfiied unlike yours which is just your word. In my opinion, get the system right, publish results and then start charging.

Innovation isn’t always linear – sometimes a few small changes in a rule set change the outcome significantly – Ivan has been extremely verbose on that subject. You could even trade the same entry system with completely different campaign management and turn a losing system in a winning one and vice versa. I don’t follow xxx and thus I am not familiar with his work. My question to you would be why you’re not trading along xxx then – heck, if he really banks 30% a month I may just sign up myself! ;-)

You cannot just turn CrazyIvan into Thor – they share some similarities and although I was able to turn Heisenberg into Thor (as it was based on the same rationale/research/idea) the former is an multiple candle entry system while Thor is a pure trend trading system. We are using hammers as entries but we could just as easily use another entry method as the hammer is only a result of an underlying market condition. Also, you may have missed the part where I said that all current CI subs will get a free three month subscription to Thor after which they can decide on their own if they want to continue.

You guys are sitting on a timebomb waiting for someone to put a post on FPA or somewhere where people who have lost money of your CI will start ranting.

Hey, get in line. Someone always loses money – nature of the beast – the market is a big bad meat grinder and retail is drawn to it like moths to a bright shining light. I can only do so much to keep you guys out of trouble. Of course when you do trip it’s much easier to point at me or someone on the outside. The very same people who will call you a genius when you have a good year will tear you to pieces when you’re down (and I’m not even down!). I have been hosting this blog for six years plus now and for every 1000 positive emails I get perhaps one or two nasty ones. So frankly speaking I’m pretty happy about what I do and I sleep well at night.

Now you may think I am pretty upset about this email but I am really not. Actually I’m grateful he wrote me as it was an opportunity to face expected criticism face on and early in the process. In some ways I completely agree with how this guy feels. Yes, we could be full of shit and perhaps we made some type of horrible mistake somehow. You probably should not sign up for Thor until you see us bank coins live here on the blog for at least a few months.

When to sign up or trade Thor via our alerts is a decision I cannot make for you – I have to be focused on delivering the best product possible and keep up the high standards we set for ourselves. If you have reservations then you better sit this one out or perhaps only trade very small position sizes, i.e. 1/4R or even less. As it says right on the bottom of every alert that is being sent to you (say it with me): Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Okay, while I have your attention here’s another question I received this morning:

I was thinking to sign up for Thor. But there is only $10K at my disposal for trading now. Does it make sense to even think about signing up having this amount available? I can hardly imagine what trading can I do with 1R or so.

It would make sense if you just limit yourself to Forex. However keep in mind that the $149/monthly fee represents 1.5% of your equity, right now about 1.5R. So if you perhaps only bank 5R next month then you’ll really just bank 3.5R (excluding commission and slippage). Over time, if you keep winning this becomes negligible. If you lose 5R then paying that extra 1.5R will feel even worse, and if you keep losing it’ll really start pissing you off. You may even feel tempted to write me a less than friendly email.

I know it sucks but that’s the reality of trading with small accounts. Of course the advantage of trading small is that you are more nimble and can get in/out easily. And if you wind up blowing your account, a lot less lost. Not to diminish the emotional impact however and it’s all relative – for some people losing $5k feels like losing $5 Million to others.

Introducing Thor

Thor is a daily chart pattern trend following system which Scott came up with based on the work we both did for Heisenberg, and which is further leveraged off the old work done by Ivan. It is, in essence, an ‘Ivan take’ on a classic trend following system of the type everyone knows and was spearheaded by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt (i.e the founders of the turtles). However the campaign management has been tweaked to produce a high SQN trend trading system, currently we are measuring approximately an SQN of 3.5.


High SQN equates with low drawdowns, as opposed to classic Donchian breakout trend following which has massive winners but massive drawdowns. It only trades during strongly trending price action on multiple timeframes, and Scott and I have exhaustively tested custom trend filters until we recently came up with what we believe is a genuine innovation – and which has resulted in dramatically improved performance this month.

We will not be discussing these filters, it is proprietary and frankly we don’t want anyone to figure it out. The campaign management you could obviously reverse engineer, but the rest of it will be very difficult but not impossible to reverse engineer. There is also a significant body of work in selecting which pairs and which futures contracts to run this over at any one time, and we have a fantastic model for this, again secret sauce proprietary.

The bottom line for those currently racing to reverse engineer our system (we can’t blame you for it) is that you will gain significant value from just paying for it. If we hadn’t build it ourselves we would pay for it, and that’s the honest truth. It requires you to be at your screen from 5:00 pm-5:15 pm EDT for currencies and 5:45pm – 6:00 pm EDT for the CME futures (metals, energy and index futures), the grains open 1 hour after that.

The Basics

Initial capital requirements are minimal for FX trading (you could trade with as little as $5k) and to add all of the futures contracts in I would say a minimum of $25k, but even $25k would be a bit restrictive depending on your risk tolerance. Certain contracts are quite large and a typical R value on ES futures would be roughly $500 per contract (could be higher or lower) and a typical R value on CL would be $1500, GC would be $700-1100, SI might be $2000.

Scott currently trades a small account at a high R value for income purposes (withdrawing the money each month to live off) and I am getting ready to do the same. Scott compounded it quite easily from $28,000 to $50,500 at close Friday in 6 weeks trading at $1000 R values (quite unacceptably high at first). He also trades a larger account at a 1.5% R value with a negligible risk of ruin which he has compounded from $600,000 to $860,000 (43% return) in just under two months. Yes you read that right.

The system is performing to specifications currently, not above or below, just exactly as it should. The backtested win rate is 57% and the current win rate is 56% on closed trades (though that will go up slightly when we bank winners from some of the open trades) My guess is that this is an exceptional period we are having due to the USD breakout, but something that should happen enough that it is not surprising. We would be extremely happy with long term performance 75% of what we are currently doing, and think that is a reasonable expectation.

Deviating from the rules, not being at your computer when you are supposed to, holding on to winners/losers when we tell you to jump out, not having stops set correctly, taking a different correlated pair than we tell you (for example let’s say we have a setup in gold and silver. We tell you which one to take but you like the other one) is going to hurt you over time. The system requires a serious commitment to trading. It is for people who want to compound an account significantly and quickly, shooting for 400%+ returns, and are prepared to work hard to do it. Scott’s personal goal is 400% per annum, and he thinks that he has maybe a 50% shot at it. Then again, he’s a bit crazy and he’s Australian – so don’t hold that against him.

Your Commitment

If you cannot free yourself to be at the screen during those times I would advise you to choose a different system. You do NOT have to be at the screen at other times, and to a certain extent screen watching is counter productive. Bottom line is that if you have a small account you will be limited to what you can trade, which is fine. There is plenty of opportunity. The system takes approximately 30 trades per month the way Scott trades it right now (manually), which is to avoid correlated pairs and have strict risk requirements about the number of simultaneous trades which are not yet at break/even.

You may be less risk averse, or take more trades. For instance if you get a long signal in NQ, which is in profit but your stop is not yet at break/even, and you got another long signal in ES the next day, you may choose to take the second signal as well. Personally we don’t do that, or anything approaching that. The Achilles heel of every daily chart system is that correlations are in reality orders of magnitude larger than mathematical models suggest, so you must trade accordingly. The bonds are related in some weird way to the sugar futures which again are somehow related to GBPJPY. We don’t know why and we don’t care – we just don’t correlate them. Also the setups cluster – you may not get anything for 2 days then 5 in one day, and any setup you instigate on the same day is also correlated in a way difficult to quantify. So if you don’t get a signal for one day please do yourself a favor by not emailing me. For my wrath shall wax hot, your wives shall be widows, and your children find themselves fatherless.

The Good

What sort of return can you expect? In the 7 years of backtesting the WORST periods the system did expectancies in the 0.25 range. The best periods were whole years for certain symbols in the 0.8 range. Long term backtest average is 0.5 expectancy. The bigger the trend, the higher the return – and yes, it works very well during bear markets. Thor would have killed it in 2007/2008. This system does not work in any way shape or form in sideways markets, but our filters keep us on the sidelines as much as possible. We are trend hunters, seeing the strongest trending markets worldwide to trade.

If you take 30 trades per month at .5 expectancy and 2% R value, on average you will make 30% per month if you trade perfectly. Yes you read that correctly. If you take 30 trades per month at 2% R value and 0.25 expectancy you will earn 15% per month on average, less mistakes from you deciding you know better than the system. That’s on you. At 30% per month you double your account in just under 3 months. At 15% per month you double your account every 5 months, or 535% per year. Frigging crazy numbers, but it’s not magic. Takes a lot of trades x significant edge = hell a lot of cash.

The Bad

How hard is it to trade correctly for a whole month? Very very hard. The email alerts will make it easier. Scott personally made two mistakes this week, the first for him in 50 days. Your head will screw with you in a hundred different ways and try and get you to not follow the system. We are here to help you follow the system. To help him follow the system Scott actually employs someone he trusts to keep him on track. This way he doesn’t just decide to go off the reservation on his own. It’s a constant dangling sword of Damocles and we all are only a day away from turning back into a nervous little mess like anyone else. I would budget for 2-3R of mistakes per month unless you are already an expert, and obviously that can seriously eat into your bottom line.

It’s very easy to trade one single day perfectly. All of you could do it, not a problem. What is difficult is doing it day after day after day. Also, it’s quite easy doing it on a small account, but as the numbers get better psychological issues can come into play. That is why we will always think and talk about R and not dollar values. Except when it comes to the profit graphs – Scott will continue to post his results in $$ values as they are up to date. Thor does stay in campaigns for weeks on end sometimes and the Google spreadsheet will not always be in sync as it only logs completed campaigns.

And The Ugly 

What sort of drawdowns can you expect? The largest drawdowns we see in backtesting are 6R. A rule of thumb for me is to double what you see in a significant backtest, so you can reasonably expect a 12R drawdowns at least once a year, and budget on getting it twice. In my opinion this system contains a significant black swan risk from correlations, so once or twice a year you will have 10 positions open and get butt-slammed on most of them, so your 12R drawdown may very well happen in the space of a week.

What sort of R value is appropriate? That depends on your risk profile. If you don’t wish to experience more than 5% drawdown you must therefore trade with something like .5% R value which will give a nice smooth equity curve at around 7% per month less mistakes. You might decide that you have a different risk tolerance with your own money and the market’s money. In that case you might trade small (.5%) until you have a 30% gain, and then be willing to trade an R value that you would risk all of that 30% at a higher R value of 2%.

A Fistful Of Dollars

Whatever you decide to do it is critical you have a business plan for what you do and when you do it all typed up and laminated and stuck to the side of your computer. Trust us, when you get close to your uncle point you won’t want to stop, and you will be at your least objective and incapable of making a decision. You MUST decide at what point you stop trading.

Scott’s personal preference in trading plans is to decide to reduce risk the further you get in a drawdown, so that you approach your comfort limits (where by definition your trading will be at it’s worst since trading in a drawdown is way harder than winning all the time) asymptotically. An example plan might be:

  1. Trade with 1% R value until equity is up 20% AND you are trading at 95% efficiency for the last month (less than 1 mistake in 20 trades)
  2. When efficiency is > 95% and SQN > 3.0 and equity 20% above starting capital trade 2% R value.
  3. At 12% drawdown from peak equity, measured in $ value from peak, halve size to 1% R value
  4. At 15% drawdown from peak equity measured in $ value from peak, have size again to .5% R value
  5. At 20% drawdown from peak equity measured in $ value from peak, take a week off from new positions in the market, managing only existing positions and evaluate whether your edge exists of whether you are trading at acceptable efficiency.
  6. If you recommence trading after a week break at 20% drawdown lower size to .25% until you can trade 20 trades without making a mistake
  7. Any time you are below your original capital trade trade for .5% R value until you are 10% below original capital. At 10% drawdown from original capital lower position size to .25%R value. At 15% lower position size to .125% R value.

You could also add what Scott calls the ‘two bucket’ plan above a certain sum of money you never thought the market would give you. Let’s say that you decided on the business plan above. You could also put in that any amount > 50% you earn in a year goes into a separate bucket, the ‘roll the dice bucket’. In this bucket you trade everything at 5% R value (which is going to have you periodically maxing out available leverage and undergoing significant and real risk of ruin for that bucket. The above is to illustrate that the actual system (though good) is the smallest part of the plan. You achieve your financial objectives with position sizing and you safeguard yourself with a business plan.

The Ground Rules

Over the past few weeks Scott and I have actually been debating about whether or not I should offer Thor to any subscribers. For one we believe that only a small minority of you will be able to follow the system properly, plus several of the contracts we trade require decent size accounts (again, Forex is fine even for small cracker accounts).

Someone actually asked me in the comment section why we don’t keep it for ourselves if it’s really so great. And he’s right about that but that argument obviously would apply to the entire blog as a basis to questioning my profitability or credibility. However, after six plus years and over 3000 posts I think my track records speaks for itself. And psychologically it’s beneficial for me not having to rely on trading income completely as it gives me a better sense of detachment. Plus it’s been a lot of fun for me and Evil Speculator’s premise from the get-go has been one of helping retail rats avoid the trials and tribulations of trading the markets and of course bank some serious coin. If I stop doing that or if you aren’t successful then you’ll obviously walk away and in the end so will Evil Speculator.


However, that said, there will be limitations to how many people can sign up to Thor and in particular regarding the jumping in and out of it. We’ll do our best to help you guys bank coin with Thor and keep you in sync with how we are trading. For instance if we take discretionary entries that bend the core rules a bit or if we skip one setup for some reason (FOMC, some market event, etc.) we will let you all know beforehand. As you can imagine that is a commitment on our end and we are only prepared to do that for serious and equally committed participants. What I do not want to find myself doing is a lot of hand holding and explanations for people who jump out of the system two months later because it may hit 10R draw down (or especially if they screw up on their own). It’s quite an investment keeping you guys on track, frankly speaking Scott has repeatedly advised me to NOT do it. I still see value but if it becomes to much for me to maintain I may disable signups. To preempt any concerns – anyone grandfathered in will be retained as long as the signal is running – even if we decide to disable new subscribers.

This Is Not Sparta

There will never be more than 100 subs for Thor – I think that is the limit both Scott and I feel comfortable with. I will also refuse anyone who’s quite obviously working for a bank, fund, or prop desk. I hereby reserve the right to reimburse any Thor subscriber and cut that person off if I see the need. And trust me – if we see large cars moving along or with our entry signals (or attempts to fade them) then we will find the responsible party and ban them for life. We have the skills to do that and will employ a zero tolerance policy.

The Cost

I have given the sub fee a lot of thought and decided to offer a special intro rate of $149 for the first three months – if it keeps plugging along as it has recently I’ll raise it to $199 in early spring. The folks who sign up now will get grandfathered into the old price for life – unless their subscription expires due to non-payment and PayPal kicks them off.  IMPORTANT: Anyone who signs up and cancels will not be able to sign up again – it’s a one-time opportunity. I can control that on the aMember side very nicely. W have zero patience for retail guys who go on vacation for three weeks and decide they don’t want to pay their subscription during that time. You may laugh now but I even get Gold subscribers who cancel their recurring subs every time they take a few weeks off – still enjoying the recurring price but treating it like a non-recurring one. Yes, we get all the high rollers here at Evil Speculator.

CrazyIvan Subs Rejoice

And finally, I’ll be giving all CrazyIvan subs a three month freebie – they’ll deserve it as CI has been pushing sideways for six months now and we feel their pain. After that they’ll get the chance to sub in for $149 before I’ll raise it to $199.

I think all of the above is pretty fair – if not, well, just don’t sign up – it’s all the same to us. We’re not implementing these limitations because we’ve got a chip on our shoulder but because we need to limit Thor’s exposure. But we all know that a high SQN system like this is going to make a bit of a splash, in particular if we keep posting a rising equity curve week after week, month after month. Which is why we will limit this to our core rats and early adopters. Obviously if 1000 people and a dozen fund managers start trading Thor then performance will suffer and we all lose in the end.

If I left anything out please post it in the comment section. You can sign up for for the free beta right now. Depending on the issues I see it’ll last between one to two weeks. I probably won’t deploy Thor until tomorrow or Thursday but I recommend you do it now as I will pull the free beta sub in a few days.

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