Trading The House Down

It’s been an extremely pleasant day here at my make shift West Coast lair. It’s the first day of spring and of course the weather once again is awesome in Los Angeles with temperatures in the mid 70s only interrupted by a few fluffy clouds here and there. Meanwhile it’s been super cold over in Spain and of course I don’t miss any opportunity to rub it in when sending vacation pics to my buddies in Valencia.

2015-03-20_NQ_update

But not only that – while I have been busy shopping and running errands all over Los Angeles I somehow managed to trade the house down this week. The NQ campaign I posted yesterday morning alone booked full 8R at this point – it’s 16 but I only took 1/2% position size so it’s a bit over 8% thus far. I am advancing my stop to 4448 and just let it run all through next week. May I point out that this was one juicy entry as I pinned the very low of yesterday’s session.

2015-03-20_CL_update

Crude – I was almost about to pull this one today but luckily was too busy packing. Exited now with a juicy 2R profit.

2015-03-20_ZS_update

Soybeans – also exited this one with a 2R profit. If you are in this one you may want to hold it as I think it has legs. The Mole however is going to be enjoying some much needed R&R in Mexico, thus holding a ton of positions during vacations is generally not a good idea.

2015-03-20_EURCAD_update

EUR/CAD – just exited for 1R.

2015-03-20_AUDUSD

AUD/USD has banked me 2R as well I’m holding this one with a trailing stop.

2015-03-20_EURUSD_update

And finally EUR/USD – also banked 2R here and I’m advancing my stop to 1.075.

2015-03-20_CrazyIvan_PL

In related news CrazyIvan has now breached the 100R mark as it now stands at a total of 105 – accomplished in 15 months with around 2500 campaigns. That’s a heck of a lot of trades but even given the crappiest b/a spreads and/or commissions it amounts to about a 150% gain considering compounding. I am very much looking forward to auto-trading CrazyIvan with a small select group of investors later this year. FYI – this is a closed group of people I know, so please do not contact me about participating. But you are always free to sign up for the signal if you can commit to three roll-overs each day (7:am/15:00pm/11:00pm Eastern).

2015-03-20_CrazyIvan_PL

And that’s it for the Mole for the next 10 days as I’m heading to Puerto Vallarta, Mexico tomorrow afternoon. The pic above shows my view from the little casa we rented all the way on top of the hills. If I can’t forget about trading in that place then there’s no hope for me. Not only am I in desperate need for a real vacation but given today’s profits alone I think I more than earned it – I really hope you caught some of those juicy entries as well. In my absence Scott ‘The Convict’ Phillips has generously offered to take over here at the lair, so I trust you are in experienced hands. In case you are wondering, during my absence all subscription services will continue to run as usual. If you need help with anything feel free to shoot me an email but please allow a bit more time than usual for a response.

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¡Hasta Luego!

El Topo

Thor Back Tested Past Five Years

After presenting Thor.0 some of you guys wanted to know what the long term track record is as it’s always important to see how a particular strategy performs in various market conditions. Well, I’ve been a very busy bee this weekend and am ready to deliver the goods. And not just that – I devoted over six hours of my day today running five years worth of backtests on Thor as well and the results were rather stunning. But let’s start with Thor.0 first:

2015-03-01_Thor.0_2010-2015

This is it – Thor.0 running on all 38 symbols over the past five years which produced a total of 250R. If you consider compounding that would have turned $100k into nearly half a million. By the way that is about 800 full campaigns – 1370 entries but Thor is forced to go in/out four times in a 2R+ campaign due to a NinjaTrader bug that prevents us from taking partial profits. Hopefully they’ll fix that issue once they finally release NT8 (sometime in 2020 – hehe).

What stands out here of course is that nasty draw down in 2010 – not a happy year if we just had started out (I think this is exactly what happened to Bill Dunn). However the good news is that Thor.0 exhibits high dependency and therefore is a great candidate for employing an equity curve filter. What I mean by high dependency is that it remained below its 20-day SMA throughout the entire drawdown. See the original article and also my write up when I implemented one into CrazyIvan (which still runs today). Well, and as it so happens Thor.0 shares a codebase with CrazyIvan, and therefore the EC filter is already built-in. It even considers live trades which is essential in trend trading systems like this one. So if market conditions revert to what we experienced in 2010 then it’ll automatically shut itself off for however long necessary.

2015-03-01_Thor_all_symbols

Now here is the original Thor strategy – every single campaign on every single symbol over the past five years. As it stands today 265R in about 1500 campaigns. I absolutely love that solid curve upward through a variety of market conditions. However the effort really paid us some unexpected rewards as we realized that there are were a handful of symbols which had been clear under performers in the past five years. Quite simply they have not been conducive to trading Thor and should be left out until they enter a compatible market phase.

Which by the way is nothing unusual and an approach employed by Ed Seykota – instead of trading a static set of symbols he constantly evaluates a small universe of symbols and only trades the ones in line with his strategies’ requirements, i.e. most likely trending in Ed’s case – he’s a proud trend trader and even sings about it:

That’s right – one trend pays for ‘em all! But in our case actually quite a few more:

2015-03-01_Thor_top_30

This is what happens when you start excluding 10 underperforming symbols. 311R over the past five yea and let me assure you that this is not courtesy of form fitting. We have only excluded symbols which have been continuously pointing down for the past four years – like for instance this one:

2015-03-01_AUDCAD_Thor

That’s AUDCAD and it’s been pointing down continuously for the past five years. Bear in mind that this one is actually included in the first Thor chart. Hard to believe really. So the approach we have decided to follow is to run a backtest on all symbols currently on our blacklist once per month and decide whether or not to include them again. The requirement for AUDCAD would be that it’s starting to point up and looks like it has entered a positive phase. Employing an SMA approach here would be difficult and we prefer to do it manually.

So there you go – all the stats on Thor and Thor.0 for the past five years. Personally I’m super happy with the results - what do the rest of guys think?

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Presidents Setups

According to the federal government, the holiday observed on the third Monday in February is officially Washington’s Birthday. But many Americans believe that this holiday is now called Presidents’ Day, in honor of both Presidents Washington and Lincoln, whose birthdays are Feb. 22 and Feb. 12, respectively. It turns out that whether you honor one or the other or both of these presidents may depend on where you live as the states decide the holidays. See, they even make taking time off complicated!

2015-02-13_spoos_briefing

The bulls are back in charge now – blasting the way higher. My NQ Thor campaign closed out overnight at the 4R mark which more than made up for losing those SPY lottery tickets. ¡Menos mal!

I can tell from the lack of participation that most of you guys already have one foot out of the door. But I owe it to the hardcore crew here to dish out the goods. So our last laundry list of short term setups before we close up shop for the long weekend.

2015-02-13_AUDNZD_briefing

AUDNZD – I’m waiting for a drop lower (if we get it) to grab a long position near 1.043. Stop below 1.04.

2015-02-13_ZF_briefing

ZF – that’s the 5-year t-note futures contract: Long above that NLBL with a stop below 119’220ish.

Quite a few more goodies below the fold:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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And that’s it – I think we’ve done a great job surviving the recent gyrations, we always managed to stay ahead of the tape. And for that alone we deserve a relaxing and fun filled weekend – I hope the weather on your end is playing nice. Over here in Valencia it’s currently over 20 degrees Celsius (~70 Fahrenheit) with plenty of sun – feels like spring already. Not a bad start for Día De Los Presidentes. So unless something drastic happens this afternoon expect my next post on Tuesday morning. Have fun!

Cheers,




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