Presidents Setups

According to the federal government, the holiday observed on the third Monday in February is officially Washington’s Birthday. But many Americans believe that this holiday is now called Presidents’ Day, in honor of both Presidents Washington and Lincoln, whose birthdays are Feb. 22 and Feb. 12, respectively. It turns out that whether you honor one or the other or both of these presidents may depend on where you live as the states decide the holidays. See, they even make taking time off complicated!


The bulls are back in charge now – blasting the way higher. My NQ Thor campaign closed out overnight at the 4R mark which more than made up for losing those SPY lottery tickets. ¡Menos mal!

I can tell from the lack of participation that most of you guys already have one foot out of the door. But I owe it to the hardcore crew here to dish out the goods. So our last laundry list of short term setups before we close up shop for the long weekend.


AUDNZD – I’m waiting for a drop lower (if we get it) to grab a long position near 1.043. Stop below 1.04.


ZF – that’s the 5-year t-note futures contract: Long above that NLBL with a stop below 119’220ish.

Quite a few more goodies below the fold:

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

And that’s it – I think we’ve done a great job surviving the recent gyrations, we always managed to stay ahead of the tape. And for that alone we deserve a relaxing and fun filled weekend – I hope the weather on your end is playing nice. Over here in Valencia it’s currently over 20 degrees Celsius (~70 Fahrenheit) with plenty of sun – feels like spring already. Not a bad start for Día De Los Presidentes. So unless something drastic happens this afternoon expect my next post on Tuesday morning. Have fun!


Riding This Beast Into The Sunset

Forget about equities – everyone and their mother is trying to sort out this gyrating stop sweeping mess. And yes, they are about to get interesting (see below), but I expect our chart of the month to be gold and not the spoos or the NQ.


Fortunately some of us rats managed to secure a seat on the bus just before it took off. I have to run the numbers as I scaled into a bit over an R between 2012 and 2018. Which gets me to roughly 10R at this point and I’m just getting warmed up. The weekly shows us approaching the 100-week SMA – our first major hurdle. However I’m going to keep my stop below 1272 for now in expectation of an obligatory shake out attempt.


The long term implications of this campaign are very promising and with a bit of finesse it’s possible that we’ll ride this sucker into the sunset. Which means somewhere around 1500 – you heard it here first.


Okay on to equities – which as I said are about to get extremely interesting. We currently are what I believe are the late stages of a limbo period (see my 2012 excerpt on market weather). However we are most likely facing long term implications here – this is not just another leg lower or higher. I repeatedly have pointed out the increase in intra-day volatility expressed here by long wicks and overlapping candles. Very very tough tape to get a read and even tougher to get a good entry. Which is exactly why most traders miss the early stages of a downside correction.


But let’s not count our chicken before they are hatched. Most likely it’s going to get worse before it gets better. The GBP/JPY correlation is pointing upward right now and I think short term it’s quite possible we’re going to stop out the current NQ short campaign (courtesy of Thor).


However there is conflicting evidence and in order to interpret the big picture we need to put it all into context. Now our UVOL/DVOL ratio today remains pretty negative despite the current push higher – could be indicative of slow accumulation especially as the Zero is donning a very flat signal (meaning little participation and quite a lot of monkey business).

A LOT more below the fold – not a post to miss – please meet me in the lair:

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Bonus chart:


CrazyIvan now at 77R – new all time highs since 1/1/2014. Who would have thunk? And it started to really get cracking when volatility was on the increase starting November/December. Seems like CrazyIvan is loving the IV and I hope to see more of this. Message to everyone who left during the summer: Watch the Nick Rage video again. This is a long term game, folks and instead of going with the program I watch you picking up pennies in front of bulldozers. Enough said.


Last Line Of Defense

Equity futures are dangling by a thread right now with the E-Mini trading below the 2k mark again – odds suggest that by the time you read this we may already have plunged lower. Looks like the proverbial shit just got real in equities. Let’s observe:


My E-Mini triptych panel (hour/daily/zoom) shows us below the 100-day SMA and now testing the last NLSL at 1995.75. If it goes then we will most likely take out the previous lows and the implications of that in turn would be a pretty extended move lower. As I said yesterday – strap on your helmets and make sure that your seat belt and safety bar is securely fastened – this could get very ugly and that quick. Suffice to say that the Thor NQ campaign which almost got stopped out yesterday is now starting to look solid.


The Singapore Dollar vs the USD – I think this may be the first time I’m showing this pair here. Nice resistance zone near 1.3365 – I want to be long above it with a stop below 1.335.


AUD/CAD – if it overcomes the hourly NLBL at 0.9746 then I’ll be long with a stop below 0.968. Low odds of it happening but if it does then we may just slice through that 100-day SMA and start a second squeeze.


A special welcome goes out to Bob The Horse – a long lost steel rat and great contributor many years ago who decided to return to the old lair. Great timing Bob and good to have you back. Things are going to be wild this year and your experience and insights would be most valuable in our eternal quest for market domination.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


    Zero Indicator

    Darth Mole Alerts

  1. poll

    • What is your average spread on the EUR/USD?

      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...

  2. NinjaTrader

    search warrant

  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Long Term Equities Update
    2. Introducing Thor.0
    3. Awesome Thursday Morning Briefing
    4. Ring Side Seats To The Freak Show
    5. Waiting Out The QE Storm
    6. Evil Speculator 101
    7. Event Risk
    8. Slow Drift Morning Briefing
    9. Friday Morning Briefing
    10. Long Term Update