The Game In A Nutshell

I think today’s session should serve as a stark reminder that the very last thing you should ever attempt is to apply even the slightest sliver of logic to market behavior, especially during volatile periods. I’m going to make this very easy for you rats, so listen up and listen carefully now. If in doubt or if you find yourself attempting to make a prediction as to where the tape may swing in response to big news events remind yourself of the following:

shark_tank

Now read the line above again a few times and then write it on a piece of paper and stick it to your wall or resident shark tank if you have one handy. I prefer the latter as it serves as a proper backdrop to that message and for all you pikers I have put together a little theme pic which you can use instead ;-)

2015-06-29_spoos_update

Case in point are the spoos which first gapped lower screwing anyone left long – then attempted to close the gap until the 100-day SMA (and weekly NLBLs) to then turn on a dime and continue lower. Clearly there is no explaining any of this and neither should we try. The chart above provided us with all we need to know.

2015-06-29_zero

So did the Zero I may add which has been pointing down all day since the open. But chances are you weren’t watching that one as you’re a nomadic ZeroEdge reading retail rat and thus can’t afford the monthly subscription for your $2000 E*Trade account.

2015-06-29_ZM_setup_freebie

Soybean meal – I just held my nose and take a spoon full long here with a stop below 332. 1/2R only as the daily context is looking rather bearish so odds have it I’ll be stopped out. But if not it’ll catch a bunch of folks off guard.

2015-06-29_Euro_setup

Euro – nice upper BB touch and I’m short here 1/2R. I do love this chart but the gap turned into a short squeeze. Why? Because a reversal higher and beyond didn’t make any sense whatsoever, which is exactly why it happened. If that confuses you please re-read the intro above.

The force today is definitely with Forex – and for my intrepid subs I have more setups waiting below the fold:


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That’s it for today – I hope none of you guys were caught off guard and are positioned nicely. Definitely no lack in volatility and odds have it that we’ll see a bit more before things quiet down for Independence Day weekend.

Cheers,

Filling The Gaps

Last night’s dramatic gaps at the open across the board have been followed by systematic reversals. Before I went to bed my wife had actually joked that I should run to the ATM and clean it out. Well, when I got up this morning I wished that I had followed her advice:

2015-06-29_EURUSD_briefing

Because that sweet EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.095 is no more. The entire gap has been filled and I can only assume that Greece suddenly doesn’t matter anymore or that a new batch of hopium has hit the streets in expectation of the July 5th referendum.

Being a proponent of game theory I personally believe that the Greeks will vote to stick with the Euro – both sides simply have too much to lose in any other scenario. I also imagine all those Greeks standing in line at the bank today during the smoldering summer heat and that may dampen their resolve to ‘stick it to the EC’ and go it on their own. Don’t get me wrong – as I suggested yesterday my notion is that Greece would actually be better off over the long term but I just don’t see it happen. Fortunately we only have a few days to wait and I’m very much looking forward for this dreaded saga to finally meet some level of resolution.

2015-06-29_gold

Gold also just filled its gap and we are back from whence we came (Friday). Fortunately Scalpius was able to snag a few R here (see below) – that’s certainly a good start.

2015-06-29_spoos_briefing

Equities also on the rebound but thus far it’s been rather modest. The level we should keep our eye on is 2053.5 which marks the weekly Net-Line Sell Level (NLSL) and we traded merely two ticks above it last night. So definitely a technical level to watch and probably the last bastion of support as the 25-week SMA is currently at 2072.

Skynard grabbed a few longs at the open and that took some balls – big props for that mate. I refrained from getting involved after having spent over 25 hours last weekend coding and refining Scalpius as well as refactoring CrazyIvan into a leaner and meaner 2.0 edition (see previous post). Suffice to say I’m exhausted but clearly this will not be a week to rest or relax as volatility is upon us.

Honorable Mention:

2015-06-29_Scalpius_gold

Scalpius grabbed a  nice long position on Gold (and crude) near the lows – not a bad start! Unfortunately it was in a demo/test account – no real action just yet as it’s in early alpha.

Lesson learned:

Let Mrs. Evil handle the forex action moving forward.

Obviously I am not eager to touch anything right now – too much gaping action and it’s too late now to touch any of those moves. Let’s see what happens over the next few hours – I’ll be sure to put up a post later after the open once we see more participation.

 

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Furious And Furious Friday

We got movement people! And obviously I’m not talking about equities where we’re still spasmodically bouncing around in the same six month trading range. Booooring! Unless of course you are the evil lair’s official Swing Slayer and that coveted title is already taken by Skynard. You will have to defeat him first and then send me one of his digits to assume his position. It also helps if you either have at least one dragon or an army of White Walkers at your disposal. Either that or just send me money – I am surprisingly corruptible.

2015-06-26_spoos_briefing

Okay, let’s get the tedious charts out of the way first. Equities – I’m risking a tiny long position if it touches 2095 with a stop below 2090.

2015-06-26_ZL_update

Alright so I was talking about movement, remember? Plenty of that across the softs in recent days (i.e. corn, soy, wheat, etc.) – you guys really need to get yourself some futures accounts. Speaking of which, do you still remember the soybean diet I pimped the other day? Soybean oil has advanced beautifully and I’m now putting my stop below a recent spike low. I think that one has potential to go all the way.

2015-06-26_soybeans_update

On the actual soybeans contract it’s time to head for the hills after a beautiful stab higher. Sure it could push even further but my target has been hit and that’s that. I’ll keep an eye on it however for new entry opportunities – preferably after a little shake out.

2015-06-26_GBPCAD_briefing_leeches

GBPCAD – fascinating formation on the daily – rarely seen anything like that on the forex side. I’m happy to play the swings here just for fun but I reckon that it’ll be ready to pick a direction early next week. Be careful usually you’ll see a fake breach first – if you are really good at this game then you can try to play the fake breach with an inverse position. Paging Skynard the Swing Slayer!


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. If there’s anything interesting to share (and if I see you guys actually showing up – I know it’s summer… yuk) then I’ll see you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,




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  3. recent misdeeds

    1. The Game In A Nutshell
    2. Filling The Gaps
    3. Greece Saga Precautions
    4. Furious And Furious Friday
    5. Dangerous Turf
    6. Forex Update
    7. Freaky Forex Fun
    8. Gold!!
    9. Knocking On Heaven’s Door
    10. My New Soy Based Diet