Chasing The Market’s Tail

Judging by the measly comment count it seems most of you guys are ready to call it a week. Plus the market seems to be in shake out mode and my E-Mini campaign met its maker, fortunately at the break/even point. Heck,  it was worth a shot but the odds were low to be begin with. Just one out of 10,000 campaigns  - moving on. So I won’t bore you with more short term setups this morning  - instead let’s talk about a cognitive bias of sorts that many of us have fallen prey to but which I don’t see being addressed very often.

2015-04-17_spoos_briefing

Today’s events are actually a prime example of what I call ‘chasing the market’s tail’. In a nutshell this rather common behavior is triggered by a series of events that cleverly draw you into taking repeated entries despite diminishing probabilities of success. You may start out with getting out clean – meaning at break even or with a little win. But after being stopped out you look at your chart and you think to yourself – hey, I got swiped just by [one handle, one tick, just below that SMA, etc.]. And you just know that after shaking out those weak hands it’ll reverse and continue higher [or lower] again.

What’s happening here is that your ego has been bruised. You got stopped out – be this for a loss or perhaps at break even or a little gain. But you really really liked this campaign, especially as you got a great entry, grabbed it right off the lows, who knows what. And you want it back – plus remember your ego is a bit bruised – and there’s that little voice in your head that keeps telling you that you’re smarter than the market and that your supreme charting skills or your unique ability to predict the future will surely overcome this temporary setback.

Yes, of course you’re never going to say all this out loud – sounds quite ridiculous after all. But we all have been there – we all have felt that temptation to go right back in, haven’t we? I mean look at that E-Mini chart above – such a juicy bounce off that lower 100-hour BB and who’s to say we’re not going to run up from here after having shaken out all those weak hands?

Of course none of us really know – especially on a Friday with only a few hours left to go. All that stuff going through your head is mental masturbation and needs to get cut at the root. That is exactly how you wind up getting drawn into bad entries – and never forget, that in fact is the main function of the market – to suck you in when the odds are aligned against you. Or maybe there are no odds – it may look that way to you now but is this entry really in line with your system rules? That’s right – I didn’t think so.

Of course Dr. Mole has the right remedy – just watch the above. Whenever I find myself after a ‘regrettable’ stop out I habitually ask myself if a new entry is justified. I also monitor my own emotions and if there are any vestiges of regret or disappointment – if so, then I simply repeat the following mantra:

Homey Don’t Play That!

That’s clear enough and it usually fixes the problem. Look guys – we’ve had a great ride recently despite equities running around in circles. Let’s not test our luck, shall we? I’m fine with letting this one go – perhaps it’ll jump higher from here and perhaps it’ll drop like a rock and we test the lower border of this sideways range again. I really don’t know and my crystal ball is still in the shop. But what I do know is that this is not a good spot for taking entries and so I’ll graciously decline and wait for a better opportunity. Which will come – believe me – if nothing else we have proven that over the past seven years ;-)

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Cheers,

Still In The Game

Boy that was a close shave this morning – one tick lower on the E-Mini this morning and I would be out in the woods right now kicking over trees. Just kidding – you’ve got to take things in stride, even if you get swiped by a tick. For the record – you will always see me put an ISL on my chart with a < sign – which means that you should put your stop BELOW it. In particular you always want to avoid full numbers – except on entry triggers.

2015-04-16_spoos_update

That’s where we are right now – quite a little bear trap this morning, extending all the way down to 2089 – those cheeky bastards! But let’s be honest – I got lucky here as I could have easily have scraped a bid. Better sacrifice a chicken burger to the Market Goddess tonight? And yes, of course it’s a she! ;-)

2015-04-16_spoos_setup

If you are still not exposed after Tuesday’s hammer then today is probably your next best opportunity – and it’s binary. Be long above 2104.75 and short below 2089. The daily context here is really excellent as we’re straddling that upper diagonal on our sideways triangle/wedge.

2015-04-16_CL_update

Here’s crude which has been holding steady – the weekly panel shows us kissing the 25-w SMA and that’s our first theoretical hurdle. Why theoretical? Because it hasn’t been touched in eons – which in itself speaks to the velocity on the way down. It’s still early days and we could easily switch back into shake out mode. But so far so good and my stop is still at break/even.

2015-04-16_ZL_setup

ZL – soybean oil - looking pretty good here straddling the 100-hour SMA and it’s also near the 25-day SMA. I’m going to be long above today’s highs and short below the lows.

More juicy setups waiting below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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And that’s all I got for today – keep it up everyone and let’s continue banking coin like bosses :-)

Cheers,

Nothing Thursday

Well, I got nothing this morning – markets are running a bit in circles and after scanning through about 10 symbols it was clear to me that this is a textbook morning to just sit out. Big part of the game is knowing when to act and when to sit back and let the tape come to you.

2015-04-16_spoos_update

I almost got clipped on the E-Mini – one single tick kept me from being stopped out, thus far. That is courtesy to my old standing habit to never place a stop at a round number, even on the index futures. That said however, we may get a bit more of a shake out today and this has been a bit of a lottery ticket – so odds of survival of this campaign are low. See you guys later this afternoon.

 

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Cheers,




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  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Chasing The Market’s Tail
    2. Still In The Game
    3. Nothing Thursday
    4. Well I’ll Be Damned!
    5. Wednesday Morning Briefing
    6. Bait And Switch Tuesday
    7. Futures Setups Galore
    8. Monday Morning Briefing
    9. Go Gadget Go!
    10. Friday Morning Briefing