Coiled Up To The Max

As you are probably already aware – the Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day meeting on Wednesday and will deliberate the first interest rate increase in nearly a decade. Analysts seem to be split over the outcome however I would be rather surprised if the Fed decides to hike. Yes, there has been a lot of pertinent jaw boning since late last year. But behind all the spouted rhetoric hides very tangible fear about the shock waves a hike may cause. For one the Dollar would most likely punch massively higher – affording the mighty Mole an even more lavish and immoral lifestyle over here in poverty stricken Spain. Expect me to buy up massive amounts of property and elect myself the rightful ruler of Valencia. Heck maybe I even change my last name to Borgia and re-implement prima nocta.


But all joking aside – while everyone is treating water we rats have work to do. No other chart shows us the accumulated anticipation like the E-Mini futures and I have decided to post a tryptic so that you are able to take in the entire context, starting at the daily, the weekly, and most importantly the monthly panel.

You don’t have to be seasoned analyst to see that the daily is now curled up to the max. That first drop down may either have been this year’s correction or it will be remembered as the first dip that preceded a massive slide lower in equities. If I had any idea as to where this pendulum may swing I would offer it. However we are literally sitting at the gates of hell with almost perfect context across all three time frames. By anyone’s definition this is a very bearish looking chart. But I have seen too many stick saves in the past few years to count out the bulls just yet. Thus, lacking any further evidence and with daily/weekly/monthly support levels yet intact I have decided to hold my small long positions I placed last week.


Bonds update – here I have gotten a bit more luck. The Friday entry was well placed and I am now moving my stop to break/even.


I’m waiting for a little bounce higher so that I can get short gold. Willing to be long above the 100-hour SMA but only 1/3R if it plays out this way.

Where is the gold!!? Anyone remember this awesome band from the 1980s? I used to dance my ass off on that tune way back in the days – we’re talking spiky hair and Doc Martin boots – the works. Unfortunately they just don’t make raw uncompromised music  like this anymore. Whether or not you like EBM – in today’s PC soaked social media policed environment this feels like a refreshing air of authenticity from the past…

Anyway, quite a bit more looming below the fold – please step into my lair:

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Jumping On Board

DarthMole just predicted volatility expansion on the E-Mini and I’m jumping on board here with a small long position. Given the whipsaw I’m only taking out 1/2R with a very conservative stop below ES 1940.


In case you’re wondering, yes – a short position below 1940 is possible but I would most likely start with 1/3R and then build it up as things move our way. Clearly the tape has been very effective in shaking out both sides, prime territory for market makers and scalp mongers. So don’t get married to a particular direction folks – this could resolve either way.


Soybean oil is trying to make a run for it. Throwing 1/2R into the pot here. Stop below the recent NLSL on the hourly. Interesting spot as I’m seeing a possible floor pattern.

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Have fun but keep it frosty.


Fourteen Years Later

I still remember that day as if it was yesterday, which makes it so surreal, given that 14 years have passed since. My wife and I had just returned from a trip to Catalina island the night before and it was supposed to be my first day back at work at some dotcom in L.A. I was working for at the time. For some reason I had turned on the TV while I was fixing breakfast and I still remember the shock when I saw both towers burning. Recall that AA11 hit the North Tower at 8:46am Eastern followed by AU175 at 9:03am . Although I used to get up early whilst living in California to check the markets we over at the West Coast were just rolling out of bed at that time.


I knew right away that this couldn’t possibly be an accident. A few years earlier I had been living in Norther California and had begun studying for a VFR license. Although I wasn’t a full fledged pilot or anything I knew a thing or two about protected airspaces. And in my mind there was no way that a commercial airliner would be permitted to fly at such a low altitude straight over Manhattan – let alone two. What played out in the following hours was a series of carefully orchestrated shocks to a nation who until that day had considered itself almost invincible, at least on its home turf.


I called into work and asked whether or not I should come in and was told to not bother and to ‘stay safe’. In retrospect this sounds a bit silly of course but recall that L.A. is a prime target and in situations like these it’s rather easy to become paranoid. Besides there was no telling the type of traffic chaos even a small scale attack on Los Angeles would have produced. I happy complied and wound up returning only two days later.

Although I now again live back in Europe, where I am originally was born and raised, I was already a green card holder at the time and had lived in the U.S. for almost ten years. California had been very good to me and although I would enter into a period of significant hardship only months later, when the dotcom bubble started bursting, I was banking coin and life was great. Deep inside I already considered myself an American and I was determined to become a full fledged citizen as soon as I was eligible. Which eventually is what happened but many years later, some of you senior rats here may actually remember the day.

The country has changed quite a lot since that dreadful day and IMNSHO not for the better. In my mind 9/11 marks a clear turning point in the soul of the United States. I think we all lost something very important that day – I wouldn’t call it innocence, that would be naive. Perhaps a better way to express it would be ‘a certain lightness of being’. I remember back when I emigrated to the U.S. in 1991 – to me it felt like an imaginary rock had slipped off my shoulder. The energy we all felt in L.A. back in the 1990s is something you need to have experienced to really understand. Although the place was clearly dealing with significant social problems (e.g. the Rodney King riots just a year later) it felt like I had entered a magic sphere in which anything was possible if you put your mind to it. If you worked hard and if you were ready to sacrifice then the sky was the limit.

I don’t feel that sensation anymore when I’m visiting these days. Perhaps it’s because I’m quite a bit older now and my life has taught me a few lessons (in humility) since then. I personally cannot complain as some of the hardships I experienced turned out to be a catalyst for improvement years later. But the world around me is clearly not the same anymore and I see nothing but failure across the board and short sighted decision making in response to imaginary threats. Meanwhile we are ignoring the real threats that affect not only the U.S. but also life over here in Europe, the current migration crisis is only one among many. The implications of the 2007/2008 market crash are still with us and the prevailing cynicism and general feeling of helplessness is feeding a populace that is unwilling to make the sacrifices necessary to implement profound changes.

I will always remember the victims of 9/11 – all the people who died that day and especially the ones who sacrificed themselves to help safe countless lifes. Those are the true heroes of our time, not the false idols the mainstream media insists on elevating as examples of a successful and true existence. The biggest loss that tragic day however was something more intangible. Call it our nation’s soul perhaps – a certain swagger or can-do attitude that, as inappropriate or imaginary as it may have been, had sustained us through several post world war generations. What we lost that day is something a lot more profound and I fear it will take many more generations to rekindle.

The people who died 15 years ago today – how would they feel about the nation that succeeded them? Surely I cannot speak for them, but had I given my life that day with the knowledge of what would happen in the years to come… I think it would have been deeply saddened me. In my mind we wasted a great opportunity for constructive change on both sides of the Atlantic – Europe is as guilty here as the United States. The wars we fought since turned out to be not just a colossal waste of life, resources, time, and money. We actually managed to exacerbate the situation for us since then and the world has become even more hostile and dangerous since.

Right now it seems that we are all living a life of distraction and blissful ignorance. It is time we put down our game consoles and mobile phones and take a hard look at ourselves and the world around us. Ask yourself – is this really the best we can do? If the answer is no (and I little doubt it is) then go out there and make a difference, for yourself, for your family, for all of us.


Alright, since it took me a lot longer to write this post some of these setups may not be valid anymore. EUR/JPY – I’m getting ready to flip this one as it’s near my stop. If it does we may see a juicy squeeze to the upside.


ZM – still good to go – this is actually a setup from yesterday and we are waiting for a punch higher – whenever that’ll happen. Now is actually a brilliant time to grab this one as it dropped back toward the prior lows.


Bonds – the five year – this one took off already – sorry. If it retests (and it very well may) then I recommend you try to sneak in here.


Same story on the ten year – maybe I should have posted the charts first before starting to write this long a… post. Apologies but once I get started time just flies by.

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