Wednesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2015-05-20_spoos_briefing

Nice activity this morning which presents us with nice entry opportunities. Time to get busy! Here are the spoos which have descended a bit over night and are now approaching the 100-hour SMA. I think a long near 2121.75 with a stop below 2120 has merit. If that one goes then we probably drop to 2113.25 or lower.

2015-05-20_NQ_briefing

Similar pattern on the NQ and you can spread your exposure between those two.

2015-05-20_EURUSD_briefing

EUR/USD – liking the sell off at the ATM but from a trading perspective we are approaching the last line of defense which IMO is the 25-day SMA near 1.10862. I’m trying a long if we breach 1.11.51 with a stop still to be determined – need to see the next spike low or NLSL.

2015-05-20_gold_briefing

Gold – long near the 25-hour with a stop below 1202.7. That was quite a slap down! Let’s see if it can recover or if we’re back in sideways mode. FWIW – boy the June contract has been a crap period for traders.

Quite a bit more waiting below the fold – please meet me in the lair:


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

Monday Morning Briefing

We’ve got movement folks! Apparently things are coming into sync across the board and we’ve got a veritable laundry list of setups this morning. Time to get busy.

2015-05-18_USDCHF_briefing

Here’s the USD/CHF – still looking weak but attempting to paint a floor. Only 1/4R here with a stop below that recent Net-Line Sell Level.

2015-05-18_wheat_briefing

Wheat – boy what a run and it’s now bumping against it’s long time nemesis – the 100-day SMA. I think the right play is to follow those ST Net-Lines but to be short below the lower 25-hour BB.

2015-05-18_ZF_briefing

Bonds are looking primed and ready to rock & roll – five year bond futures retesting the 100-day SMA but I’m taking my cues from the short term panel. Long on a little dip lower with a stop below the lower 25-hour BB.

2015-05-18_ZT_briefing

ZT, the two year bond futures – long here with a stop below that recent spike low.

Quite a bit more below the fold – please meet me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Boy what an avalanche of setups! That ought to keep you guys busy for a while. See you all later this afternoon.

Cheers,

Magic Bounce

At the risk of sounding cynical but that bounce off the lows today was rather mysterious and reeks like an engineered double squeeze. Once again our Zero indicator signal paints a pretty good representation of today’s whipsaw:

2015-05-12_zero

Some poor sub was asking me how to interpret those wild swings and the best I could offer was the following:

  1. Clearly the tape suddenly turned on a dime today. You may point at some random news event as an explanation but I smell turkey.
  2. The bounce and gap fill that followed looks like it was run by prop desks and institutional traders. The strongest spike was a 1.0 compared with a negative 2.5 on the downside.
  3. VWAP has not been touched since the lows, which is rather unusual given a) the initial drop lower and b) the diminishing participation which since has turned into a flatline.

Obviously all this is completely in sync with the current market phase – which remains to be one big sideways high volatility wood chipper bent on destroying as many participants as possible. So treat carefully and make sure you get exposed only when the odds are clearly on our side.

2015-05-12_spoos_update

Speaking of which – what an awesome entry at ES 2011 yesterday. Things looked quite rosy there after the open but it was not to be. I am staying short here as swapping positions here due to a bounce is not part of my system – I got a good entry and I’m riding it to the end. Moving my stop to break/even however, that’s for sure. I’ll be looking into swapping for longs if that happens – as discussed yesterday.

The positive thing here is that this dip lower builds even more context, once again demonstrating that the short side is unable to breach little more than short term support levels. The current NLBL at 2111.75 has already been tested and a breach higher would be a damn good reason to be long. But for now I’m not going to second guess direction – this is exactly the type of tail chasing we need to avoid. You got an almost perfect entry – stick it out as per the system rules.

2015-05-12_EURGBP_update

Some updates on our ongoing campaigns – EUR/GBP looked good for a while but has dropped back lower. Nothing to add since yesterday’s entry. Still willing to flip for a short position should it drop below the weekly NLSL.

2015-05-12_CHFJPY_update

CHF/JPY – also looked a lot better a few hours ago. I’m moving my stop to break/even now.

2015-05-12_AUDUSD_update

AUD/USD – that one seems to be good to go! As you can see it’s peeking over its 25-week SMA and a breach here could lead to a squeeze higher.

2015-05-12_natgas_update

Natgas – I think I threw that one out for free yesterday. I really hope some of you guys grabbed a few long positions after it produced more context near the 100-hour SMA. I’m riding this sucker all the way. Stop now at break/even of course.

A few more goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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