There Is No Butter In Summer Opex Hell

It’s OPEX week and clearly that is not helping what is already a sideways low participation high volatility summer tape from hell. So let’s treat carefully and pick our victims extra carefully.

That’s right, there is no butter in hell. So don’t try to be smart and play the swings here – you will be stomped on.

2015-08-18_spoos_briefing

Case in point: You may recall the NLBL on the daily E-Mini chart I posted yesterday. After breaching the diagonal this is where the boys were to be separated from the men. A breach higher would have put us on the path to taking another whack at the 2120 mark. But as many times over the past few weeks participation died off instantly and profit taking continued overnight. There may be another long opportunity (i.e. LKGB) near the 100-day SMA but we’d have to judge participation there. Which means – watch the Zero today like a hawk.

2015-08-18_bonds_update

My bond campaign has been taken to the woodshed and I’m out at break/even. Waiting for new instructions here – we may correct quite a bit lower and that will be a great spot to get positioned.

2015-08-18_sugar_briefing

Sugar stopped me out at ISL overnight but it’s still moving in the right direction. So I’m back in LONG but this time with a stop below that recent FU spike low near 10.5.

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No Market For the Meek

And the fuckery continues. My apologies in advance for my crude language; but I think it does reflect the general sentiment among market participants these days. It hadn’t exactly been a fun year thus far to begin with – we have seen massive distribution across the front. Just when we thought that equities may pick a direction again we dropped into the summer tape, which has put us through a sideways ordeal of non-directional whipsaw. Even during the best of times it is tough to maintain a consistent edge as a trader – many have tried and very few manage to pull it off in the end. In market conditions like these however I guarantee you that even the pros are sweating. So treat carefully my dear steel rats – if you managed to not lose money in this market then you are a rock star.

2015-08-17_spoos_update

It all started out beautifully on the E-Mini this morning. I snagged my entry and we dropped quickly until short term support near 2075 produced a rapid snap back and then some. Fortunately my system rules dictated to move my stop to break/even after 1.2R. I almost got to move my stop lower at 2R but the snapback was too fast.

So I flipped for a long position at my stop and am about to take partial profits. Technically speaking we are at an interesting junction here. I mentioned this morning that another FU spike higher was a possibility and this is around the point where the advance dies in its cradle or picks up some momentum. Anyway, I only have a tiny chihuahua in this fight – like most of you I’m mentally checked out of equities at this point. One of these days it’ll pick a direction – until it does I’m playing equities with petty cash.

2015-08-17_ZB_update

Bonds however have played it by the script so far. Textbook entry and I’m moving my stop to break/even. Just look at the daily panel – now this is some tape I can sink my rat teeth into!

More below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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Cheers,

Simple Trend Trades

I’m going to keep it super simple today. Over the past few months we have observed increasing evidence of two medium trend shifts – a swing down on the equities and a push up on the bond side. My simple modus operandi going forward is to wait for short term trend trading opportunities in order to be positioned if/once we finally see acceleration. Yeah, I know – hopefully sometime this year – it’s been painful.

2015-08-17_bonds_briefing

Bonds have been on a strong trajectory higher but have pulled back a little over the past few sessions. From here we either revisit the 100-day SMA or we proceed higher in the near term future. I’m currently long the ZB but will flip for a short position if we drop through 158.

2015-08-17_spoos_briefing

Equities – not as clear as the situation in bonds just. It’s hard to miss that falling diagonal on the spoos however and it’s now touching the 100-day SMA. Which means make or break time. It’s all fun and games until the bulls suddenly find themselves 100 handles lower. I’m cautiously short but do still leave the door open for another FU push higher. Distribution is as distribution does.

Not much else going on this morning but I did dig up two juicy GBP campaigns. Please meet me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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