Bluffin’

Pretty relaxed day down here at the lair but we continue to print coin one campaign at a time. It’s been pretty rough sailing over the past few weeks and I’m proud to say that our policy of taking on small but strategic risk has paid off.

Most importantly we have been extremely picky in choosing setups which kept us out of a lot of whipsaw tape. Human psychology often leads you to increase participation during noisy tape – may this be due to revenge trading, over compensation, defense of entrenched opinion, who knows – the rabbit hole of human cognitive biases runs deep. However if you’re playing it by the book you should be fine – you may have not caught every single swing but as I said the other day, our mission during this market phase is survival and keeping one’s powder dry for more directional tape. Message received? Great, let’s move on.

2015-05-11_spoos_update

I’ve fortunately kept short despite a quick spike higher to 2013 this morning – this conniving bitch of a market stopped me out at 2012. But persistent as I am I jumped back in at 2011 seeing the complete lack of participation on the Zero:

2015-05-11_zero

I was prepared for whipsaw and thus far it’s continuing lower. I’m a bit surprised actually as participation has completely flatlined all day. But if you find yourself on the right side of the tape, don’t over think it right? Fortunately the context developing here is extremely positive. Even if we reverse and run higher I’d be happy to flip for long positions as this would actually validate the entry. So I think we’re positioned well and the tape is now working in our favor.

2015-05-11_cable_update

Cable update – I’m taking profits here after a textbook entry two days ago. I could wait for a touch of the upper BB but as I mentioned last week: In this market I’m a bit quicker to take profits – the nimble trader lives another day.

2015-05-11_bonds_trend_trade

Bonds – this could actually turn into a trend day. Very few people would look for short positions here but this is actually what may happen. For right now I’m long but my short trigger is at 153’20.

Juicy setups waiting below the fold – please join me in the lair:


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Cheers,

Running Like A Hare

The tape across the board has been running like a hare and today’s session again did not offer us any reprieve from the relentless battering we’ve been through over the past few weeks. Up and down she goes although on the equities side it’s been more down than up and the fat lady hasn’t sung just yet.

2015-04-30_spoos_update

Clearly I’m going to be limping behind here as things are unfolding quite rapidly. When I took that snapshot it was looking like equities may have found some ground but I simply didn’t trust it and posted in the comment section that it’s probably best to let things play out. That seems to have been good advice as the spoos are heading even lower as I’m typing this. To your collective benefit Mole’s instincts have been honed by decades of hairy tape ;-)

2015-04-30_zero

The Zero is still showing us very little participation, once again indicative of a stop run by institutional traders. A lot of greedy retail rats are being burned here folks – consider yourself lucky you’re not one of them (I hope!).

2015-04-30_NQ_update

The NQ printing lower highs and lower lows – this is not looking good. The 25-day SMA only offering soft support and this thing could easily resolve toward the 100-day SMA near 4317 before it’s all over.

2015-04-30_VIX-VXO

On days like these it always pays to check breadth and momo charts. The VIX:VXO is showing me no divergence which is concerning.

2015-04-30_VXV-VIX

More long term the VXV:VIX is also pointing down. That’s bad medicine…

Alright, updated across the board in no particular order:

2015-04-30_EURUSD_update

The EUR/USD is now in earshot of my target and I’m taking everything but 25% of my position off the table. This campaign has done a great job of softening the impact of the shitty exchange rate I’ll probably be facing in the months ahead. Notice the weekly NLBL that has been sliced today.

2015-04-30_EURJPY_update

EUR/JPY – same idea here – I’m taking almost everything off the table, only keeping 25% of my original position. Again my target is near the 100-day SMA where I would normally expect some obligatory resistance. But given the velocity of this short squeeze things could easily overshoot.

2015-04-30_crude_update

Crude – I’m quite stunned by how well this one has kept up given all the drama in the remaining futures pits. As you may remember I snagged a rather early seat near the 50 mark and remain determined to ride this puppy higher. Over the past week or so there was a lot of talk about crude having hit a high and I’m glad I didn’t listen – as always! ;-)

2015-04-30_ZF_update

ZF is not a setup yet but I like the daily and weekly panels here. As soon as it gives me an excuse to be long I’ll let you know.

2015-04-30_ZN_update

Ditto on the 10-year futures but it’s a bit early to snag a position just yet. Let’s see how things play out Sunday night or on Monday.

Alright before I grab dinner a few juicy setups for my intrepid subs:


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Cheers,

The Big Squeeze

The gloves have officially come off and it’s outright war all across forex as GBP and EUR shorts are systematically being squeezed into oblivion. Very few saw this one coming it seems except for the Mole and his crew of lowly steel rats. Having secured early seats on a fleet of buses it’s all smiles down here at the lair – a rather welcome reward after weeks of pain and patiently waiting our turn in the bullpen. But that’s yesterday’s trades – we’ve got more work to do this morning – so let’s roll up our sleeves and get to it:

2015-04-30_spoos_briefing

The E-Mini – I took an experimental long here as we’re retesting the 2088 mark. I have low expectations of this one working out but it’s a delicious entry and I’m taking it with 1/2R.

2015-04-30_NZDUSD_briefing

NZD/USD – picking over corpses here – that’s right, no mercy! That was one nasty drop and I’m long here with a stop below the previous lows. Again an experimental entry – if you follow me into the abyss don’t risk more than 1/2R.

2015-04-30_ZN_briefing

Bonds – binary inflection point here. I’m currently long and so can you but I would wait for a drop toward 128’120. Below 128’040 the abyss awaits – see the context on the daily.


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,




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