Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.


Boy, we have a ton of excellent ST setups waiting in the bullpen this morning – so let’s dive right in. The context on the spoos is fairly juicy here – observe the bounce off the lower 100-hour BB on Sunday night and as of now the tape is busy drawing in participants before a big move.


However I wouldn’t trade the S&P futures this morning, instead I’m looking at being long the NQ above the NLBL near 4280 and short below the (already expired) NLSL at 4266.25.


Alternatively or in combination the YM also has good ST context – trigger and stop levels are 17560 and 17511.


The EUR/USD looks like it wants to pop higher and I’m planning a trip to the ATM right after finishing this post. Long here already with a stop below 1.0983. I hate this trade but have got to take it ;-)

Alright – we’re all warmed up now? Plenty more waiting below the fold:

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So did I promise too much? GREAT setups today? It’s good to be back, especially when the tape throws such juicy setups at us. See you guys later this afternoon.


Mexican Murpy

And of course this just had to happen. I mean how many vacations have I taken in the past seven years since I started Evil Speculator? Three perhaps – none of which lasted more than three or four days? And the one time when I finally decided to go off the grid for a few days the damn site melts down. Incredible! As you (may) know this almost never happens – except of course when poor Mole take a few well deserved days off. Unfortunately I also managed to forget my mobile phone at the club – typical. So I didn’t figure the site was down until early evening when I returned from a beautiful day on the Marietas Islands.


In the end the culprit turned out to be some missing PHP updates which caused some incompatibilities with the newest version of cPanel. My most supreme hosting company however was on the case right away and by the time I woke up this morning everything was upgraded and properly fixed. I seriously don’t pay these guys enough – best hosting firm I have ever come across. Of course if you for some reason experience any problems please don’t hesitate to zap me an email. Again, allow 24 hours for a response as I’m in Mexico with a spotty Internet connection.

By the way, I humbly thank all of you who responded in kind to my email. As a matter of fact I didn’t receive one single angry email, which speaks a lot to the caliber of people who frequent and support Evil Speculator. Thanks guys – this actually makes me look forward to returning to work next week.

Now Scott was obviously unable to put up a new post yesterday and after such a lengthy outage there’s simply now way I’m going to leave you guys hanging. So here we go – a quick update on the current price action.


The E-Mini is actually in a very interesting spot here. The red arrow points at the spot where we touched the upper 100-hour BB and then started to proceed sideways. I’m not convinced that we’ve got a double top situation here – just yet. The tape since then has been indicative of wearing out some of weak hands. The first real level of support I’m seeing now is near 2076 where the lower hourly BB meets our NLSL. Now if we fail that one then it’s quite possible that we’ll revisit the 100-day SMA near 2050. But even then the bulls still have a pretty good chance at to jump in there and take advantage of that rising SMA. Let’s see what happens today/tomorrow – the price action will give us further clues – look at velocity, participation, UVOL/DVOL, all that good stuff. And of course the Zero!


The YM is actually a bit ahead of the ES here and although I would trade the latter I would take early clues from the former. Bottom Line: I would be long right here with a stop below the daily NLSL – at this point I would not be interested in short positions. I am using the conditional as I am obviously not trading whilst on vacation with Mexican Internet connectivity (actually it’s not that bad – upload speed is the biggest problem).

I got a few more goodies for my intrepid subs – please step into my Mexican lair :-)

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Alright, that’s it for me until sometime mid next week. Obviously you are in good hands – Scott did an awesome job in nailing the recent highs.


Everything Must GO!

Yellen strikes again and the bears have been blown out of the water once more, as expected yesterday. This morning’s drop below yesterday’s lows was a nasty little bear trap and I’m glad that I had cut my remaining short exposure to half which I got out near break even (having a stop below break/even – be prepared during FOMC days). I don’t expect any of you guys having caught that spike higher so let’s just observe the aftermath of what equates to a massive collective rope-a-dope.


The spoos rocketed higher like a bat out of hell. We just sliced through a daily NLBL and odds have it we’ll push a bit higher even before the close. I think this is one a great example of why I will never be able to live in SoCal again. This morning I fell out of bed, saw the spoos near the lows paired with low participation and thought to myself that it was a great buying opportunity. Of course by the time I’m up and running and ready to post the train has left the building. Moral of the story – if you want to catch early morning entry opportunities effectively – live on the East Coast or in Europe (Brazil and even Chile would work as well).


Anyway, this is my favorite chart of the day and the reason may not be immediately apparent. Yes, those spikes on the Zero Lite (right panel) are pretty large – or ARE THEY? On further observation we are spiking at 0.8 – and that amounts to almost NOTHING in comparison with regular trending days. The conclusion here is that this was driven by a small minority of connected prop desks and people on the inside. 99% of traders did NOT participate in this advance higher. You are free to draw your own conclusion from this. Personally I refrain from letting this affect my trading – I simply stay away during Federal Open Manipulation Cycles.


EURUSD is a buy – notice that we are going to close three consecutive higher highs for the first time in months now. It seems that Mole’s European adventure is going to become more costly again.


Bonds are a buy – everything must go! Massive candles here.


Gold is a buy buy buy – and we just cemented new weekly support near those lower bollingers. Breaching that in the future would require some heavy duty equipment and very strong downside momentum. I think we are looking at minimum at a medium term low here.

I’m not taking entries right now – my standing policy is to let FOMC days play out and then pick out easy prey stumbling along the sidelines once the dust clears. See you guys tomorrow morning.

I leave you with this courtesy of the Fly.

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