Long Term Support

Something rather interesting happened yesterday during the E-Mini session. Granted it was a bit subtle but perhaps some of you veteran subs picked it up as well:


More specifically it’s something I saw on the Zero Lite after I marked a pretty significant bullish signal divergence, meaning price was meandering down while selling pressure was abating. Our modus operandi when confronted with such a divergence is to start looking for price confirmation in order to take out a contrarian entry – in this case a long position. Only problem was – price never budget. Participation continued to contract and then completely flatlined with the tape dropping lower all the way into the close.

As you can see VWAP was never threatened and not even touched beyond the first third of the session. That ladies and leeches we call a consolidated sell off session and that’s been pretty damn rare over the past few years. Just yesterday I mentioned that the bears have been unable to inflict any significant damage all year and this is perhaps the first session where I saw significant selling pressure and even a bit of panic selling toward the end.


Which brings me to the big picture, because for the first time in a long while I see long term support levels being threatened. As you can see the weekly on the left shows us only a few handles away from the 100-week SMA. But much more significantly – the monthly panel on the right is currently in breach of a monthly NLSL at 2023. Now it’s only August 21st and a lot can happen in the next 11 days. My inkling here would be that we’ll revere this at some point and stab back higher. However, what happens afterward in the coming month or two will show us whether or not the bears are ready to put themselves into the driver’s seat.


This is actually quite exciting as we are seeing acceleration plus we have finally abandoned the dreaded range we have been gyrating in over most of the year. On the NQ we are actually accumulating quite a bit more context across the board and this is where I see the most salient entry opportunities going forward. Note how we are touching the lower 100-day, a weekly Net-Line Sell Level, and a monthly NLSL at the very same time. Clearly the 4330 – 4340 range has significance and what happens here today and next week will be crucial.


When it comes to taking entries however I suggest that you keep an eye on the hourly panel. If you are a Zero sub then that’s clearly going to be helpful as well. Yesterday was a prime example how you always always want to wait for price confirmation, especially during strong sell sessions. If you do not see any divergences and if the signal accompanies price then simply go with the flow. Don’t over think this – especially during price corrections. Many of you may be a bit rusty trading trending tape like this after a year of sideways churn. So let this serve you as a reminder that price is always king – do not every attempt to step under a falling sword.

More specifically this means you want to see the following in place:

  • A bullish or bearish signal divergence on the Zero Lite. Make sure the large spikes of the signal ranges above the 1.0 mark – it’s easy to be deceived by pseudo-divergences when the signal range has been tiny for days.
  • Price confirmation. Wait for price to start moving in your direction – do not try to guess when the tide will turn. The more forceful the sell off (or ramp) the more conservative you want to be here.
  • Look for additional context. You can use whatever your heart desired – I personally rely on VWAP on the E-Mini (as shown on the Zero panel). You can use Bollingers, MAs, stochastics, it doesn’t matter. On VWAP for instance I look for attempts to breach it – if there hasn’t been a touch for a long time and we’re far away (like yesterday) then that means selling pressure is strong. So in that context you want to wait for price to give you a clear indication – spike lows or spike highs for instance are something to look out for.

Speaking of spike highs/lows – there is one in place on the NQ right now but it’s still a bit premature for me to jump in here willy nilly. So I’ll wait a bit more and perhaps take out a small long position if I see the lows being respected. If we breach the NLBL at 4364 then I may add 1/2R and build my way up. Yes we are sitting on LT support here but that doesn’t mean we won’t see another stab lower which may be bought back Monday. This should give you a general idea of how I approach things and how I (and some of the senior subs here) are playing the swings.

Finally, do not attempt to use LT charts for grabbing long positions here – you will be smashed to pieces. I hope I don’t have to explain this in further detail but let’s just say that too many retail rats utilize LT charts for ST trading decisions. It’s like taking the bicycle to the toilet – a bit overkill and you bound to bump into walls.

Quite a few setups today – please step into my lair:

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There Is No Butter In Summer Opex Hell

It’s OPEX week and clearly that is not helping what is already a sideways low participation high volatility summer tape from hell. So let’s treat carefully and pick our victims extra carefully.

That’s right, there is no butter in hell. So don’t try to be smart and play the swings here – you will be stomped on.


Case in point: You may recall the NLBL on the daily E-Mini chart I posted yesterday. After breaching the diagonal this is where the boys were to be separated from the men. A breach higher would have put us on the path to taking another whack at the 2120 mark. But as many times over the past few weeks participation died off instantly and profit taking continued overnight. There may be another long opportunity (i.e. LKGB) near the 100-day SMA but we’d have to judge participation there. Which means – watch the Zero today like a hawk.


My bond campaign has been taken to the woodshed and I’m out at break/even. Waiting for new instructions here – we may correct quite a bit lower and that will be a great spot to get positioned.


Sugar stopped me out at ISL overnight but it’s still moving in the right direction. So I’m back in LONG but this time with a stop below that recent FU spike low near 10.5.

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No Market For the Meek

And the fuckery continues. My apologies in advance for my crude language; but I think it does reflect the general sentiment among market participants these days. It hadn’t exactly been a fun year thus far to begin with – we have seen massive distribution across the front. Just when we thought that equities may pick a direction again we dropped into the summer tape, which has put us through a sideways ordeal of non-directional whipsaw. Even during the best of times it is tough to maintain a consistent edge as a trader – many have tried and very few manage to pull it off in the end. In market conditions like these however I guarantee you that even the pros are sweating. So treat carefully my dear steel rats – if you managed to not lose money in this market then you are a rock star.


It all started out beautifully on the E-Mini this morning. I snagged my entry and we dropped quickly until short term support near 2075 produced a rapid snap back and then some. Fortunately my system rules dictated to move my stop to break/even after 1.2R. I almost got to move my stop lower at 2R but the snapback was too fast.

So I flipped for a long position at my stop and am about to take partial profits. Technically speaking we are at an interesting junction here. I mentioned this morning that another FU spike higher was a possibility and this is around the point where the advance dies in its cradle or picks up some momentum. Anyway, I only have a tiny chihuahua in this fight – like most of you I’m mentally checked out of equities at this point. One of these days it’ll pick a direction – until it does I’m playing equities with petty cash.


Bonds however have played it by the script so far. Textbook entry and I’m moving my stop to break/even. Just look at the daily panel – now this is some tape I can sink my rat teeth into!

More below the fold for my intrepid subs:

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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