Setups Setups Setups

Way too much chatter on this board and way too little hands on trading. Almost none of you are riding this higher due to either a) lack of effort b) propensity for mental masturbation or c) trying to make predictions. Seriously? After six years plus of Evil Speculator goodness I expect a lot more from you guys. So once again, let me show you how it’s done:

2015-02-12_spoos_update

The bulls are clearly back in charge here as we have crossed all bullish inflection points and are now squeezing the tape higher. What I like in particular here is that the upper 25-day BB is now starting to point up, which means there’s almost nothing but air above. Well, I said almost – there is a weekly NLBL at ES 2088.75 but we just sliced through the one at 2062.25 and may have enough velocity to push it over the edge. That said – tomorrow is the last session ahead of a three day weekend (PrezDay) – and I have an inkling we’ll park up here and leave any remaining bears to roast for a few days.

2015-02-12_UVOL

Bots clearly in buy mode – look how smooth the UVOL line is climbing today. The squeeze is on! Heck, I’m just glad we are finally outside that dreaded trading range we’ve been locked in for over a month. The human sacrifice I offered the other day seemed to have appeased Mrs. Market. Gold Gerb – thanks for taking one for the team – you will be missed.

2015-02-12_Thor_NQ

Boy, I almost didn’t catch this pig except for the ST longs on the ES I put on the other day. However Thor came to the rescue and the current campaign is about 0.75R away from its target.

2015-02-12_setups

I promised setups galore, so step right into the lair – we even have a VIP section. And what happens in the lair, stays in the lair!

2015-02-12_EURJPY_setup

EUR/JPY – long here with a stop below the 100-hour SMA. It’s still early in the game but there is a good chance that the 25-day SMA remains in place. 1/2R only – if she goes we probably get a runner.

2015-02-12_crude_setup

Crude – long above the 100-hour SMA with a stop below 50. 1/2R only – I do love the formation on the daily but we cannot exclude the potential for more monkey business as there are too many eyes on this symbol.


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Alright, that ought to keep you rats entertained for a while – have at it and hopefully I see a bit more participation in the comment section. The Mole deserves better!

Cheers,

Short Term Setups

I am running a little late this morning but there’s a lot going on, so let’s get to it. Equities are still near our inflection point but I just noticed that we have additional context courtesy of the weekly panel:

2015-02-11_spoos_briefing

Things are slowly coming into focus here and despite the recent gyrations we can rely on the following:

  1. We are obviously in a sideways range spanning 100 handles between inflection points near 2080 and 1980.
  2. Currently we are painting higher highs and higher lows, that is positive for the bulls.
  3. We have not seen clear rejection but things will have to proceed higher by the EOW.
  4. The weekly panel dons a NLBL at 2082.5 – if we close above that on Friday we’ll have ourselves a weekly buy signal.

2015-02-11_YM_briefing

The YM is offering pretty nice ST context this morning.  I’m already exposed but if you’re looking for entries you may want to use that cluster of NLBLs and be long above YM 17791.

2015-02-11_AUDCAD_briefing

AUD/CAD – long above the NLBL with a stop below 0.974 and change.

More below the fold – please step into my lair:


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Cheers,

It’s A Long Way To The Top Or Bottom

Extreme exhaustion – I can smell it here in the comment section and all across the financial blogosphere and media. And if you’ve been hanging around the lair for more than a few days then you already know my modus operandi for dealing with one’s emotions – be those of the positive or negative variety: Acknowledge their presence, count to ten, then smile and stomp on them immediately. For we know what they are: annoying distractions at best and hurdles preventing you from banking your ill gotten gain at the very worst.

Look guys – at this point we don’t know what we’re dealing with here. And you know what – you don’t have to know, embrace the fact that you will never ever know what direction the tape will choose today or tomorrow, let alone sometime in the distant future. Predictions are for pikers. But what we do know is that it’s either a LT top or it’s a sideways correction with more upside ahead. And in each case the resolution will be boisterous and full of entry opportunities. You don’t have to trade today but you always always should prepare for taking trades tomorrow. Because just when the tape looks the most confusing the best entry opportunities happen to present themselves.

So this is what we don’t do:

We don’t get drawn into the swings and we don’t get emotional. Instead consider why the market swings in gyrations right now – the purpose is to exhaust participants and to draw them into emotional decisions. It’s a long long way to the top – or to the bottom. Meaning: Corrections near inflection points can take a lot longer than most retail traders care for or are able to imagine – most employ a lack of patience in combination with wishful thinking.

But ask yourself this: What really has changed from early January? We are still near the 2060 mark and now the resolution is nearer than it was five six weeks ago. And that’s good news right?

So this is what we’ll do:

First we analyze where we are right now and if we have an entry opportunity. Let’s start with participation:

2015-02-04_zero

Of which there is almost nothing today – see that flat line on the Zero Lite? It suggests that buying interest has dried up just when the bulls seemed ready to rip this thing higher and break the bear’s back.

2015-02-04_UVOL

UVOL also looks rather meager today – where are those bots today? All of this smells like either a big bear trap or distribution as institutionals are closing out long positions and prepare for more swings. But how do we know?

2015-02-04_spoos

Well, remember, we don’t. But we don’t need to know as we’ll use the short term panels to guide us until we get closer to our daily inflection points.  We’re still a bit too far from that daily NLBL at 2055 and if I want to get short I would prefer if we climbed a little. On the hourly we look in good shape right now and thus if you’re long I would remain long until that 25-hour SMA stops giving support. Once/if that 25-hour is starting to be threatened then we can talk about possible short positions but I think it’s a bit early for that.

2015-02-04_GBPJPY_setup

Alright, I can’t believe I’m giving this one away for free but here we go: GBP/JPY – once again we’re taking early clues off the hourly. Which means long right now with a stop near 178.2. If that one gives I’d love to be short with a stop above the 25-hour. The potential for this campaign is rather interesting – see the daily and weekly panels. Whatever direction it’ll pick will most likely turn into a runner. So keep your eyes on this one!

I also dug up several juicy futures setups – please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Have fun but keep it frosty!

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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