All In A Good Day’s Work

It’s all smiles down here in my sunny Mediterranean lair – account flashing bright green and I have converted several ST campaigns into daily ones (more on that below). Judging by the thundering silence none of you guys followed suit here yesterday afternoon which is extremely disappointing. Not to boast but my seven year track record suggests a pretty high success rate in flagging important inflection points.


The E-Mini once again turned on a dime right at the lower 100-hour BB, which was one of the support zones I pointed out this morning. Tough one to catch IMO unless of course…


…. you were a Zero subscriber – then you may have seen this one coming. Textbook signal divergence during today’s lows and although you may not have nailed the very bottom I have an inkling some of my Zero subs were able to slip in a few longs here ;-)


Alright, let’s catch up with the ongoing campaigns which I converted into daily ones as of now. NZD/USD now looking pretty solid and I’m leaving my stop at break/even for now. Giving this a lot of space to run.


EUR/JPY – also great entry there yesterday but we’re heading into daily resistance. My stop is already at break/even which may bite me in the ass if we get a LKGB retest.


EUR/USD – sorry to say that it’s looking good as well – there goes my cheap exchange rate I guess, bugger! Also facing resistance here on the daily soon.


AUD/USD – SOLID!!! I’m taking 50% off the table here as I expect a correction at the 25-week SMA, plus after banking 2R+ that’s more than in line with my system rules.


AUD/CAD – damn – this one literally exploded higher. I’ll be taking partial profits above 0.965 where the 100-day SMA awaits.


Wheat triggered on Thor.0 the other day, which is still in beta, and as this is turning into a textbook campaign I wanted to post it here as well. The whole idea behind Thor.0 is that it stays in the campaign as long as possible – we have a theoretical 20R target but don’t expect that one to ever be hit. In contract Thor exits at the 4R mark which is appropriate for that particular strategy. The main difference between those two is that Thor.0 triggers during strong trends as well as the onset of big run – success rate is 50/50 but once it gets going it can go on for weeks.


Corn was another Thor.0 entry and I think the original Thor would have taken 4R profits by now. As you can see the weekly is offering support here and this is where this campaign may fail. It has already taken 50% off the table at the 2R mark and now it’s basically a matter of whether or not this one turns into a runner. The BBs on the daily are about to start falling lower and if that happens there’s nothing but air below.


Crude update – yes, I’m still in that one. Many analysts are expecting this to be the highs for now but I’m not so sure. It’s been holding up pretty nicely and those 100-day SMA is starting to compress. I’m leaving my stop below that NLSL at 53.93 – let’s see if she decides to move against the common consensus, wouldn’t be the first time.


Bonds – a possible setup today. I’m actually waiting to be precariously long here today near 161 and if my stop nearby gets touched I’ll turn it into a short. Why? Well, look at the daily panel – could drop like a rock from here until about 154.

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Time To Start Paying Attention

I’m sensing an increasing amount of mental exhaustion right here in the comment section. I can’t really blame you as it’s perfectly natural to start feeling frustrated after several weeks of sideways volatile market conditions across all four verticals (i.e. equities, bonds, forex, futures). However – I think I have done a pretty good job of keeping you guys out of trouble, plus things are slowly coming into sync here. I can’t promise that we’re at the cusp of a new (and hopefully more directional) market phase – but judging from the roster of setups waiting in the bullpen below I think it’s time to start paying attention again. So let’s get to it!


Boy did I have it wrong on the E-Mini this morning – my prognosis was that we’d hit the ground running after around 2115 but as soon as it happened the tape turned on a dime. I did however anticipate the possibility of a last kiss goodbye move to the downside, so if you catch the Es near its 100-hour SMA then a small long entry has pretty decent odds. If 2103 fails then we may be dealing with a false break out and that means we’re back in hell for another week or two.


Copper campaign update – great entry this morning and she’s looking hot! Moving my stop to break/even now.


NZD/USD – even better entry and my evil plan seems to be unfolding as planned. Also moving my stop to break/even here.


USD/CHF – now that was interesting! That blue line signifies the daily NLBL at 0.9493. I grabbed a long position right after that touch and my ISL remains below 0.9493. Still early in the game however and we could see another drop lower.


We got a ton of juicy looking setups today – here’s the EUR/USD which (much to my chagrin) appears to be bent on pushing higher. I am waiting to grab a long near 1.086 with a stop below 1.0818.


AUD/CAD – long here with a stop below 0.9475. Definitely like that formation on the daily.

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Thar She Blows!

Is it true? Could it be? Someone please pinch me because it looks like we may just have departed this dreaded trading range which has been the source of much stagnation and whipsaw as of late. Well, let’s not jinx it – shall we? The session still has another hour to go and we haven’t really punched into fifth gear just yet.


Here are the E-Mini S&P futures – a.k.a. the spoos (technically that’s the big contract but anyway) – nice punch higher here when most of us expected another trip to the downside. Yes yes, hindsight is 20/20 – ain’t it? Which is why I suggest you don’t beat yourself up and remember – it’s much better wishing to be in a trade than wishing to be out of one.


Thor actually grabbed a long here last night – I only took 1/2R as I’m a highly suspicious here. Plus YM is lagging the spoos it seems but hey, let’s see how she flows.


Cable update from this morning – so far so good and we’ve got a decent chance to breach that daily NLBL. Next hurdle would be the 100-day SMA but let’s address that if/when we get there.


CAD/JPY – one of my favorite charts in my roster right now. We took an early entry yesterday and the actual IP long trigger was a few ticks higher. Which ever you took – so far it’s looking fine but we can’t rule a retest of the 100-day SMA, which is still falling, let’s not forget that. So we are far from being out of the woods here.


Crude – definitely out of the woods on that one. My trailing stop was never threatened and I’m keeping it here as I don’t want to be swiped in case we see a stop run lower before she blows. If it manages to pass 59 we are entering short squeeze territory – wouldn’t that be a shame… ;-)


Bonds – no setup here, just a general observation. I’m actually short ZB via Thor and it’s looking good but has not locked in the 2R mark just yet. IMO this thing either falls apart right here or we’ll see another trip higher.

I’ve got some setups but will reserve them for my intrepid subs:

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