No Juice

Equities have managed to push higher overnight and the E-Mini is now crossing the bear’s Rubicon, a line I drew at ES 2062 based on the most recent daily spike high. Nothing is ever impossible but unless we see an almost instant drop right here today this play is pretty much lost for the bears. Miracles happen but as of right now it seems they’ve run out of juice.

2015-01-23_spoos_briefing

Every handle higher from here now exponentially supports the bullish case. There is no harm in taking out a few lottery ticket shorts here but be aware that the odds are now vastly stacked against you. The hourly is looking pretty solid as well with the 25-hour SMA carrying price higher.

2015-01-23_NQ_briefing

I’m already long the NQ courtesy of Thor – and I distinctly remember how emotionally difficult taking this trade was on Wednesday. Just to make the point that none of us are ever immune to being biased, it’s a constant battle against one’s inner instincts. However if I wasn’t long already I would take one right here with a stop below the NLSL and the 25-hour SMA – let’s say near NQ 4240.

2015-01-23_copper_briefing

Otherwise I don’t see anything delectable this morning. The sole exception maybe being copper which doesn’t really offer an entry right now but it’s looking like it may start trending lower here.

The Dollar is on fire this morning and the EUR/USD touched 1.11 overnight, so I better head over to the ATM! The way things are heading I may just have one installed in my trading lair :-)

 

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

My New Best Friend

My apologies for being relatively quiet on such an exciting day. Unfortunately there was a death in my wife’s family and I had to be there to offer some moral support. Which means I haven’t been trading (much – the systems are always on) and earlier this morning there was no reason to grab positions ahead of Draghi’s announcement.

2015-01-22_EURUSD

So let’s talk about the big news first – most likely I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know but in a nutshell: Despite strong dissent by both German members of the ECB’s board the decision is to issue €1.1 Trillion in QE at €60 Billion per month. That’s a mighty chunk of change aimed at countering the threat of a supposed deflationary spiral. Obviously much of that had already been priced in but the expectation had been around €50 Billion per month but what’s another €10 Billion among friends, right?

Accordingly the EUR/USD is now at 1.13 and change and there’s no telling when this free-fall will end.

euro_toilet_paper

Clearly Draghi didn’t win any popularity contests over in the old Vaterland today, but he’s now officially my new best friend. Looks like I’m going to save a lot of money on toilet paper and may be able to move operations into my favorite Valencian palacio. Because unless the U.S. Fed is interceding somehow in the near term future we may see the Euro on par with the Dollar at some point this year. How about we organize an Evil Speculator Euro-Par-ty over here in Spain when it happens?

2015-01-22_spoos_update

On the equities side we’ve been getting exactly what I suggested yesterday – more upside and we are now approaching the point of no return for the bears. Given my post I had a very tough time taking an NQ long position via Thor last night – the short campaign had previously ended at break even. It’s interesting how I was emotionally uncomfortable about placing this trade. Scott and I were on the phone and the consensus was ‘yes, we absolutely have to take this trade’ – especially since we were both pretty bearish. Practice what you preach, so to say.

2015-01-22_zero

Bottom Line: Nothing has changed – 1600 is where the bears fumble the ball again and we most likely are going to see new highs. Which however wouldn’t mean that this bull market picks up where it left off a few months ago. I maintain that we are in the late stages here and I also don’t like the participation I’m seeing on the Zero. This may turn any day and I suggest that you slim down any significant equity exposure (i.e. large stock portfolios, stock based funds, ETF/ETNs, etc.).

2015-01-22_gold_update

Our gold campaign is looking very good now as we are only a bagel throw away from the 100-week SMA at 1310. Not shown on the panel above is the monthly NLBL at 1290 which we’ve already crossed. A close above this mark on January 31st would be a monthly buy signal and excellent news for anyone already long (i.e. this lowly Mole). I’ve told you guys that I intend to hold this one into 1500, that would be one trade for posterity given my 1212 entry.

That’s all for today – see you guys tomorrow.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Riding This Beast Into The Sunset

Forget about equities – everyone and their mother is trying to sort out this gyrating stop sweeping mess. And yes, they are about to get interesting (see below), but I expect our chart of the month to be gold and not the spoos or the NQ.

2015-01-20_gold_update

Fortunately some of us rats managed to secure a seat on the bus just before it took off. I have to run the numbers as I scaled into a bit over an R between 2012 and 2018. Which gets me to roughly 10R at this point and I’m just getting warmed up. The weekly shows us approaching the 100-week SMA – our first major hurdle. However I’m going to keep my stop below 1272 for now in expectation of an obligatory shake out attempt.

riding_into_the_sunset

The long term implications of this campaign are very promising and with a bit of finesse it’s possible that we’ll ride this sucker into the sunset. Which means somewhere around 1500 – you heard it here first.

2015-01-20_spoos_update

Okay on to equities – which as I said are about to get extremely interesting. We currently are what I believe are the late stages of a limbo period (see my 2012 excerpt on market weather). However we are most likely facing long term implications here – this is not just another leg lower or higher. I repeatedly have pointed out the increase in intra-day volatility expressed here by long wicks and overlapping candles. Very very tough tape to get a read and even tougher to get a good entry. Which is exactly why most traders miss the early stages of a downside correction.

2015-01-20_spoos_GBPJPY

But let’s not count our chicken before they are hatched. Most likely it’s going to get worse before it gets better. The GBP/JPY correlation is pointing upward right now and I think short term it’s quite possible we’re going to stop out the current NQ short campaign (courtesy of Thor).

2015-01-20_UVOL_DVOL

However there is conflicting evidence and in order to interpret the big picture we need to put it all into context. Now our UVOL/DVOL ratio today remains pretty negative despite the current push higher – could be indicative of slow accumulation especially as the Zero is donning a very flat signal (meaning little participation and quite a lot of monkey business).

A LOT more below the fold – not a post to miss – please meet me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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Bonus chart:

2015-01-20_CrazyIvan

CrazyIvan now at 77R – new all time highs since 1/1/2014. Who would have thunk? And it started to really get cracking when volatility was on the increase starting November/December. Seems like CrazyIvan is loving the IV and I hope to see more of this. Message to everyone who left during the summer: Watch the Nick Rage video again. This is a long term game, folks and instead of going with the program I watch you picking up pennies in front of bulldozers. Enough said.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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  3. recent misdeeds

    1. No Juice
    2. My New Best Friend
    3. Inflicting Maximum Pain
    4. Riding This Beast Into The Sunset
    5. Let’s Dive Right In
    6. Friday Morning Briefing
    7. Swiss Only Learn The Hard Way
    8. The Bus Is Empty
    9. Last Line Of Defense
    10. Strap On Your Helmets