Trading The House Down

It’s been an extremely pleasant day here at my make shift West Coast lair. It’s the first day of spring and of course the weather once again is awesome in Los Angeles with temperatures in the mid 70s only interrupted by a few fluffy clouds here and there. Meanwhile it’s been super cold over in Spain and of course I don’t miss any opportunity to rub it in when sending vacation pics to my buddies in Valencia.


But not only that – while I have been busy shopping and running errands all over Los Angeles I somehow managed to trade the house down this week. The NQ campaign I posted yesterday morning alone booked full 8R at this point – it’s 16 but I only took 1/2% position size so it’s a bit over 8% thus far. I am advancing my stop to 4448 and just let it run all through next week. May I point out that this was one juicy entry as I pinned the very low of yesterday’s session.


Crude – I was almost about to pull this one today but luckily was too busy packing. Exited now with a juicy 2R profit.


Soybeans – also exited this one with a 2R profit. If you are in this one you may want to hold it as I think it has legs. The Mole however is going to be enjoying some much needed R&R in Mexico, thus holding a ton of positions during vacations is generally not a good idea.


EUR/CAD – just exited for 1R.


AUD/USD has banked me 2R as well I’m holding this one with a trailing stop.


And finally EUR/USD – also banked 2R here and I’m advancing my stop to 1.075.


In related news CrazyIvan has now breached the 100R mark as it now stands at a total of 105 – accomplished in 15 months with around 2500 campaigns. That’s a heck of a lot of trades but even given the crappiest b/a spreads and/or commissions it amounts to about a 150% gain considering compounding. I am very much looking forward to auto-trading CrazyIvan with a small select group of investors later this year. FYI – this is a closed group of people I know, so please do not contact me about participating. But you are always free to sign up for the signal if you can commit to three roll-overs each day (7:am/15:00pm/11:00pm Eastern).


And that’s it for the Mole for the next 10 days as I’m heading to Puerto Vallarta, Mexico tomorrow afternoon. The pic above shows my view from the little casa we rented all the way on top of the hills. If I can’t forget about trading in that place then there’s no hope for me. Not only am I in desperate need for a real vacation but given today’s profits alone I think I more than earned it – I really hope you caught some of those juicy entries as well. In my absence Scott ‘The Convict’ Phillips has generously offered to take over here at the lair, so I trust you are in experienced hands. In case you are wondering, during my absence all subscription services will continue to run as usual. If you need help with anything feel free to shoot me an email but please allow a bit more time than usual for a response.


¡Hasta Luego!

El Topo

Easy Prey

Yesterday I mused about my habit of sitting through panic spikes only to pick out easy prey once the dust settles. Well, today is that day and as we have plenty of juicy candidates limping past us we better get organized. This is it folks – time to get busy!


The spoos retraced quite a bit of yesterday’s advance and currently we are hanging somewhere in the middle of nowhere. No entry here unless we drop lower and touch 2065.


The NQ however ain’t a bad long here with a stop below 4410.


EUR/USD – as much as I love it back at 1.06, as a trader I just have to take a long here with a stop below the 100-hour SMA. If it drops below that then I win as well once I’m back in VLC.


Gold is looking like solid here and if it holds this NLBL we should be primed to pump higher. You have a choice between putting your ISL below that hourly NLSL or the 100-hour SMA.

Plenty more waiting below the fold – please step into my West Coast lair:

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Strangely today’s momentum/participation is twice of what we saw yesterday in the ramp higher. Alright, tthat ought to keep you guys busy for a while – I’m grabbing breakfast now. Trading on the West Coast sucks – but I love the weather and the eye candy.


Everything Must GO!

Yellen strikes again and the bears have been blown out of the water once more, as expected yesterday. This morning’s drop below yesterday’s lows was a nasty little bear trap and I’m glad that I had cut my remaining short exposure to half which I got out near break even (having a stop below break/even – be prepared during FOMC days). I don’t expect any of you guys having caught that spike higher so let’s just observe the aftermath of what equates to a massive collective rope-a-dope.


The spoos rocketed higher like a bat out of hell. We just sliced through a daily NLBL and odds have it we’ll push a bit higher even before the close. I think this is one a great example of why I will never be able to live in SoCal again. This morning I fell out of bed, saw the spoos near the lows paired with low participation and thought to myself that it was a great buying opportunity. Of course by the time I’m up and running and ready to post the train has left the building. Moral of the story – if you want to catch early morning entry opportunities effectively – live on the East Coast or in Europe (Brazil and even Chile would work as well).


Anyway, this is my favorite chart of the day and the reason may not be immediately apparent. Yes, those spikes on the Zero Lite (right panel) are pretty large – or ARE THEY? On further observation we are spiking at 0.8 – and that amounts to almost NOTHING in comparison with regular trending days. The conclusion here is that this was driven by a small minority of connected prop desks and people on the inside. 99% of traders did NOT participate in this advance higher. You are free to draw your own conclusion from this. Personally I refrain from letting this affect my trading – I simply stay away during Federal Open Manipulation Cycles.


EURUSD is a buy – notice that we are going to close three consecutive higher highs for the first time in months now. It seems that Mole’s European adventure is going to become more costly again.


Bonds are a buy – everything must go! Massive candles here.


Gold is a buy buy buy – and we just cemented new weekly support near those lower bollingers. Breaching that in the future would require some heavy duty equipment and very strong downside momentum. I think we are looking at minimum at a medium term low here.

I’m not taking entries right now – my standing policy is to let FOMC days play out and then pick out easy prey stumbling along the sidelines once the dust clears. See you guys tomorrow morning.

I leave you with this courtesy of the Fly.

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