Inside The Mind Of A Retail Rat

In a column in the Financial Times at the start of the week, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, whom the Obama Administration passed over to appoint Yellen, argued that it would be folly for the Fed to raise rates. Damn it – this is going to be a boring one again – alright you can do this – this is important, pull yourself together…. Now Ray Dalio, the manager of one of the world’s biggest hedge funds, Bridgewater Associates, has weighed in on the debate… what the fuck does he know…  arguing that the Fed, rather than tightening policy (that is, raising rates), might well end up easing instead—purchasing bonds and pumping money into the financial system ... say what??... a policy known as quantitative easing. (Between 2008 and 2014, the Fed carried out such a policy.) OMG this shit is boring… okay, okay, now we’re getting to the good stuff…

mouse_hamburger

When Dalio’s remarks, which he delivered in a note to clients, were first reported, it appeared that he was suggesting the Fed would back off a rate hike, a move Wall Street had been expecting to take place in September or December. On Tuesday, he published an article on LinkedIn ... who the fuck still uses LinkedIn – snort... , in which he clarified his views. “To be clear, we are not saying that we don’t believe that there will be a tightening before there is an easing,” Dalio wrote. “We are saying that we believe that there will be a big easing before a big tight…

Oh for f…s sake, this is IT! How does this crap even make any sense? Am I supposed to buy stocks here or not, for crying out loud!? Or is gold the way to go? It’s fallen a lot lately – gotta bounce at some point! Man, this shit is a lot harder than I thought… perhaps uncle Cletus was right… I should have just invested in his chicken farm instead of opening that damn TDA account.

Alright, what was that guy again who banked some coin recently? Evil Investor or something [googles] – ahh right – Evil Speculator….. Haa-haa – funny guy … damn his charts are really dark, he must be color blind or something. Bad taste in music too, jeezes… Seems to know what he’s doing tho… What? $49 per month? Is he insane? Who can afford that!!? Alright, we’re done here – let’s see what’s on ZeroHedge today, they sound smart and know a lot of stuff…

2015-08-28_USDJPY_briefing

Pssst… wait… is he gone? Oh good – now, let’s get on with our business. USD/JPY is looking like a juicy long position but not just yet. This is looking WAY too easy and I’m waiting for a drop toward the 100-hour SMA just to screw with everyone a little. Probably worth waiting until Sunday night.

2015-08-28_SI_briefing

Silver – good to go here IMO but I’m taking only a tiny position (0.3R) as it’s been a wild ride lately. 14.2 is your minimum stop, mine is actually a bit below that.


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Don’t go crazy now – easy does it ahead of Jackson Hole and all. So, keep yourself busy – I for one have big plans for this weekend…

Hey, evil is as evil does.

Cheers,

Sky Diving Elvis’

I’m going to dip my toe into a few symbols today again – however let’s re-emphasize again that small position sizing clearly should be our modus operandi for the foreseeable future. It is important that you understand that a practice of small position sizing (e.g. < 0.5% per campaign) and wider stops does not hamper our ability to profit but instead leverages this high volatility market phase in our favor. To place large bets during this period is tantamount to gambling, and if that’s what you’re after then I suggest you head for Vegas or Reno.

At least there you get to enjoy low priced hotel rooms, pool side entertainment, a sky diving Elvis, and girls in skimpy outfits serving you free drinks while they suck money out of your wallets*. You have been warned.

UPDATE: I had posted a ZB and ZN long trade but they hit the stop a few minutes after. I don’t see much edge in a short position here so I’m waiting for instructions. Meanwhile this is what’s left on the menu this morning:

2015-08-26_GBPCHF_briefing

GBP/CHF has been dancing on the 100-day SMA and I’m long here. However if stopped out near 1.46 I plan on reversing to short position. Again, SMALL position sizing – I’m taking 0.33% R position sizes today.


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2015-08-26_events

A little bit of event risk today an hour before the open. You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty.

Cheers,

* Why am I not in Vegas right now again?

Long Term Support

Something rather interesting happened yesterday during the E-Mini session. Granted it was a bit subtle but perhaps some of you veteran subs picked it up as well:

2015-08-20_zero

More specifically it’s something I saw on the Zero Lite after I marked a pretty significant bullish signal divergence, meaning price was meandering down while selling pressure was abating. Our modus operandi when confronted with such a divergence is to start looking for price confirmation in order to take out a contrarian entry – in this case a long position. Only problem was – price never budget. Participation continued to contract and then completely flatlined with the tape dropping lower all the way into the close.

As you can see VWAP was never threatened and not even touched beyond the first third of the session. That ladies and leeches we call a consolidated sell off session and that’s been pretty damn rare over the past few years. Just yesterday I mentioned that the bears have been unable to inflict any significant damage all year and this is perhaps the first session where I saw significant selling pressure and even a bit of panic selling toward the end.

2015-08-21_spoos_LT

Which brings me to the big picture, because for the first time in a long while I see long term support levels being threatened. As you can see the weekly on the left shows us only a few handles away from the 100-week SMA. But much more significantly – the monthly panel on the right is currently in breach of a monthly NLSL at 2023. Now it’s only August 21st and a lot can happen in the next 11 days. My inkling here would be that we’ll revere this at some point and stab back higher. However, what happens afterward in the coming month or two will show us whether or not the bears are ready to put themselves into the driver’s seat.

2015-08-21_NQ_LT

This is actually quite exciting as we are seeing acceleration plus we have finally abandoned the dreaded range we have been gyrating in over most of the year. On the NQ we are actually accumulating quite a bit more context across the board and this is where I see the most salient entry opportunities going forward. Note how we are touching the lower 100-day, a weekly Net-Line Sell Level, and a monthly NLSL at the very same time. Clearly the 4330 – 4340 range has significance and what happens here today and next week will be crucial.

2015-08-21_NQ_briefing

When it comes to taking entries however I suggest that you keep an eye on the hourly panel. If you are a Zero sub then that’s clearly going to be helpful as well. Yesterday was a prime example how you always always want to wait for price confirmation, especially during strong sell sessions. If you do not see any divergences and if the signal accompanies price then simply go with the flow. Don’t over think this – especially during price corrections. Many of you may be a bit rusty trading trending tape like this after a year of sideways churn. So let this serve you as a reminder that price is always king – do not every attempt to step under a falling sword.

More specifically this means you want to see the following in place:

  • A bullish or bearish signal divergence on the Zero Lite. Make sure the large spikes of the signal ranges above the 1.0 mark – it’s easy to be deceived by pseudo-divergences when the signal range has been tiny for days.
  • Price confirmation. Wait for price to start moving in your direction – do not try to guess when the tide will turn. The more forceful the sell off (or ramp) the more conservative you want to be here.
  • Look for additional context. You can use whatever your heart desired – I personally rely on VWAP on the E-Mini (as shown on the Zero panel). You can use Bollingers, MAs, stochastics, it doesn’t matter. On VWAP for instance I look for attempts to breach it – if there hasn’t been a touch for a long time and we’re far away (like yesterday) then that means selling pressure is strong. So in that context you want to wait for price to give you a clear indication – spike lows or spike highs for instance are something to look out for.

Speaking of spike highs/lows – there is one in place on the NQ right now but it’s still a bit premature for me to jump in here willy nilly. So I’ll wait a bit more and perhaps take out a small long position if I see the lows being respected. If we breach the NLBL at 4364 then I may add 1/2R and build my way up. Yes we are sitting on LT support here but that doesn’t mean we won’t see another stab lower which may be bought back Monday. This should give you a general idea of how I approach things and how I (and some of the senior subs here) are playing the swings.

Finally, do not attempt to use LT charts for grabbing long positions here – you will be smashed to pieces. I hope I don’t have to explain this in further detail but let’s just say that too many retail rats utilize LT charts for ST trading decisions. It’s like taking the bicycle to the toilet – a bit overkill and you bound to bump into walls.

Quite a few setups today – please step into my lair:


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Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Inside The Mind Of A Retail Rat
    2. Taking Profits
    3. Relive The Bounce
    4. Rammstein
    5. Sky Diving Elvis’
    6. Steadily – Consistently – Systematically
    7. The Tale Of The Big Bad Bear
    8. Long Term Support
    9. Medium Term Support
    10. FOMC Wednesday