Rejection

After six years of pain the bears are used to rejection near inflection points. Which is why we keep seeing those bounces just when it looks like the tape is about to fall off the plate. But in the past few weeks I keep thinking the same thing over and over: How many stick saves are we going to see before this thing falls off the plate?

2015-02-02_spoos_update

However, that said – the bears are starting to wear our their welcome. Yes, medium and long term tops take a while to form, but there comes the point when it becomes clear that there’s not sufficient selling pressure to take this dog any lower. That time is approaching fast now – if you project forward a few days: Let’s assume we get two or three more closes near the diagonal I painted on the daily (left panel) and we’ve effectively produced a bullish defense line. Odds for a bounce higher will increase rapidly now every day we remain above 1980.

I’m still short here from ES 2040 and won’t touch those until we fall off the plate or I get stopped out at break/even. It’s make or break time for the bears – let’s see if they blow it once again.

2015-02-02_VIX

The VIX also at the line of scrimmage  - that 23/24 mark has been holding thus far and supports the notion that we are at a technical inflection point.

2015-02-02_USDCAD_setup

On the setup side I’m actually taking my cues from the short term panels in expectations of turning them into daily campaigns. Here’s the USD/CAD which currently looks like an experimental long until about 1.256 – I want to be short below that.

More futures and forex setups below the fold:


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Cheers,

Setup Tuesday!

We’ve been through some nasty tape over the past week but I have an inkling that’s about to change. Things are slowly coming into focus and it’s probably not accidental that we’ve got setups crawling out of the woodwork this morning. So it’s going to be a busy morning – grab a cup of coffee or your favorite tea, roll up your sleeves, and be ready to pull that trigger!

2015-01-27_spoos_briefing

Quick update on the spoos – up/down/up/down – I think I’m getting sea sick. Whether or not this is yet another berar trap is beyond me but what I do know is that 2062 remains unchallenged thus far. I know I’ve been sounding like a broken record over the past week or two but this market is NOT healthy. Be on your guard!

I’m going to be short here below 2040 – long above the NLBL at 2047.75 – in between it’s a coin toss.

2015-01-27_GBPJPY_briefing

Okay, setups setups – we got aplenty. GBP/JPY – long here with a stop below 177.8.

2015-01-27_AUDCAD_briefing

AUD/CAD – long here with a stop below 0.9882.

2015-01-27_cotton_briefing

Let’s not skimp on the futures either – I’m long cotton with a stop below 58.

But we’re just getting warmed up – please join me in the lair:


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

No Juice

Equities have managed to push higher overnight and the E-Mini is now crossing the bear’s Rubicon, a line I drew at ES 2062 based on the most recent daily spike high. Nothing is ever impossible but unless we see an almost instant drop right here today this play is pretty much lost for the bears. Miracles happen but as of right now it seems they’ve run out of juice.

2015-01-23_spoos_briefing

Every handle higher from here now exponentially supports the bullish case. There is no harm in taking out a few lottery ticket shorts here but be aware that the odds are now vastly stacked against you. The hourly is looking pretty solid as well with the 25-hour SMA carrying price higher.

2015-01-23_NQ_briefing

I’m already long the NQ courtesy of Thor – and I distinctly remember how emotionally difficult taking this trade was on Wednesday. Just to make the point that none of us are ever immune to being biased, it’s a constant battle against one’s inner instincts. However if I wasn’t long already I would take one right here with a stop below the NLSL and the 25-hour SMA – let’s say near NQ 4240.

2015-01-23_copper_briefing

Otherwise I don’t see anything delectable this morning. The sole exception maybe being copper which doesn’t really offer an entry right now but it’s looking like it may start trending lower here.

The Dollar is on fire this morning and the EUR/USD touched 1.11 overnight, so I better head over to the ATM! The way things are heading I may just have one installed in my trading lair :-)

 

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