All In A Good Day’s Work

It’s all smiles down here in my sunny Mediterranean lair – account flashing bright green and I have converted several ST campaigns into daily ones (more on that below). Judging by the thundering silence none of you guys followed suit here yesterday afternoon which is extremely disappointing. Not to boast but my seven year track record suggests a pretty high success rate in flagging important inflection points.


The E-Mini once again turned on a dime right at the lower 100-hour BB, which was one of the support zones I pointed out this morning. Tough one to catch IMO unless of course…


…. you were a Zero subscriber – then you may have seen this one coming. Textbook signal divergence during today’s lows and although you may not have nailed the very bottom I have an inkling some of my Zero subs were able to slip in a few longs here ;-)


Alright, let’s catch up with the ongoing campaigns which I converted into daily ones as of now. NZD/USD now looking pretty solid and I’m leaving my stop at break/even for now. Giving this a lot of space to run.


EUR/JPY – also great entry there yesterday but we’re heading into daily resistance. My stop is already at break/even which may bite me in the ass if we get a LKGB retest.


EUR/USD – sorry to say that it’s looking good as well – there goes my cheap exchange rate I guess, bugger! Also facing resistance here on the daily soon.


AUD/USD – SOLID!!! I’m taking 50% off the table here as I expect a correction at the 25-week SMA, plus after banking 2R+ that’s more than in line with my system rules.


AUD/CAD – damn – this one literally exploded higher. I’ll be taking partial profits above 0.965 where the 100-day SMA awaits.


Wheat triggered on Thor.0 the other day, which is still in beta, and as this is turning into a textbook campaign I wanted to post it here as well. The whole idea behind Thor.0 is that it stays in the campaign as long as possible – we have a theoretical 20R target but don’t expect that one to ever be hit. In contract Thor exits at the 4R mark which is appropriate for that particular strategy. The main difference between those two is that Thor.0 triggers during strong trends as well as the onset of big run – success rate is 50/50 but once it gets going it can go on for weeks.


Corn was another Thor.0 entry and I think the original Thor would have taken 4R profits by now. As you can see the weekly is offering support here and this is where this campaign may fail. It has already taken 50% off the table at the 2R mark and now it’s basically a matter of whether or not this one turns into a runner. The BBs on the daily are about to start falling lower and if that happens there’s nothing but air below.


Crude update – yes, I’m still in that one. Many analysts are expecting this to be the highs for now but I’m not so sure. It’s been holding up pretty nicely and those 100-day SMA is starting to compress. I’m leaving my stop below that NLSL at 53.93 – let’s see if she decides to move against the common consensus, wouldn’t be the first time.


Bonds – a possible setup today. I’m actually waiting to be precariously long here today near 161 and if my stop nearby gets touched I’ll turn it into a short. Why? Well, look at the daily panel – could drop like a rock from here until about 154.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


Short Term Entry Opportunity

This is an Evil Speculator Entry Alert – meaning we have a limited time to get exposed as price is hanging in the balance near an important inflection point. Yesterday night I was talking about lower highs and lower lows – that pattern seems to be in the process of being broken:


That hourly NLBL at 2099 is up for grabs right now and I want to be long in about a minute or two when it finalizes – hopefully above it. My stop will be below 2096 – if stopped out I’ll be short with a stop above 2099 – easy peasy lemon squeezy.

I’ll keep digging around for more ST setups but wanted to set this one off as quickly as possible as it’s time sensitive.

UPDATE 1: Alright guys – I did dig up something very juicy on the futures front, please step into the lair:

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UPDATE 2: Okay, here’s a little freebie for you leeches:


Soybeans – long above that hourly NLBL at 997.5 – stop below that 25-day SMA.

Alright, we got a bit of event risk in a few minutes:


I hope Draghi pulls out all the stops – I need that Euro at m…ing par!


Great time to be an American! That’s right, you guys were just born there – the Mole had to EARN it! ;-)


We Got Movement

We’re seeing an interesting failure on the equities side today – seems like it took a few people by surprise and so it should! Judging by the participation a large portion of traders has been locked out of the rally and participation continues to wear thin:


I’ve kept telling people to anticipate a sell off but to remain patient as I have not seen any technical context to hang our hat on. That may be changing now as this stab lower may not hold but will help us establish potential sell opportunities if it heads higher. Quite frankly that signal signature on the hourly Zero looks extremely strange and is starting to reek like distribution.


The E-Mini isn’t giving us much right now and I wouldn’t chase this move lower.


The NQ however is looking juicy on an hourly basis – I’m thinking long 1/2R here if it drops by a handle or so - put your stop below 4430. The context is pretty good above that daily NLSL and it’s worth to BTFD here. However, that said – if stopped out I am grabbing a short position as we may accelerate lower. Also, if it actually continues higher I will be looking for short opportunities – but let’s address that when/if we get there.


EUR/CHF update – this was the only one that triggered and it’s looking positive so far – this is the type of price action we want to see. If it manages to heave itself above 1.077 then move your stop to break/even.


Alright – we got a nice list of setups today – here’s crude which I want now with a stop below 49.6. Now bear in mind that it’s still in sideways churn mode and it will test your patience. Which however may be rewarded in the near future. When crude starts trending it doesn’t mess around.


As a side note – crude also seems to be a decent contract for trading Thor – here are the past five years. As you can tell it goes through phases – did very well in 2010 and 2011 and then went sideways throughout 2013 into early 2014. After which it took off like gang busters. There was a pretty lively discussion on the board yesterday on the topic of excluding badly performing symbols. This is an example of where I would not even think about excluding it – there is simply no predicting when it goes back into rocket mode again.


Gold however has been on a rampage in the past give years, clearly there was less trending potential in the past two years but it seems to be back in vogue now – at least via Thor. Looking forward to seeing more of that in the course of this year.

Alright – more setups below the fold – please step into my lair:

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

That’s all I got for today – see you guys on the other side!


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