Time To Bitch Slap Old Bucky

The Fed is pretty much running out of options at this point. Their current modus operandi is to continue pretending that they want to raise rates but without real intentions of doing it anytime soon. Every month we are being served another paltry excuse as to why they’re still hesitant or that they’ll assess their timing based on the economic data. Perhaps next time it’s the humidity or waiting for the moon’s phase to line up properly.

Which means that among the few tools remaining in their arsenal to to keep equities afloat is to stomp on the Dollar once it approaches escape velocity. And given the Greek drama the timing couldn’t be any better to stick it to those dreaded Dollar bulls. And that’s going to be our theme of the day. Not because I say so but because quite a few USD related Forex symbols have moved into sync over the past few hours.


For starters I’m grabbing a long here on the EUR/USD with a stop below the recent spike low. If the 100-hour can’t be held then we’re going to see quite a bit more sideways churn or perhaps even a revisit of the recent lows.


AUD/USD is looking pretty juicy here as well and I’m long with a stop below its recent spike low. Also nice to see the daily far outside the 100-day BB. Now it’s still early days here but if this thing bounces it’s high time – if it doesn’t manage a reversal here it may fall off the plate and turn into a trend trade to the short side. So short positions on a stop out may be possible here.


The E-Mini isn’t among my favorite charts right now but if I don’t talk about it you guys are most likely to ride me out of the lair on a rail. So here you go – a possible long setup on the spoos if it drops to 2050. May not do it though so don’t chase it.

More goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs:

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.


Extra Evil Morning Briefing

Oh boy – we are literally swimming in juicy setups this mornings. After weeks of drought we finally reap the benefits of laying patient. Time to have some fun.


The spoos look extra delicious here and I’m currently 1/2R short but waiting to be stopped out at 2112 so that I can flip for a long position. The range between that and 2112 is our limbo zone – below the latter we are pushing back into bearish territory but for a slide lower we would need to breach 2108.


I actually like the NQ a bit better and I’m playing a short here (1/2R) via the same script.


Gold – still waiting for a move here – it’s coiling up! Long above 1190.8 (or here) with a stop below 1185. I’m glad we finally rolled over.


Tons on the forex side – long the USD/CAD with a stop below 1.24 – LOVE that configuration.


EUR/USD – the trade I love to hate. Which is why it’s probably working out. Triggers on the chart. I kid you not, when I saw this chart last night I got dressed and ran to the ATM and literally cleaned it out – hehehe…

More nefarious market madness looming below the fold:

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

A morning like this deserves its own theme. Crank it up and have fun. See you guys later this afternoon.


All In A Good Day’s Work

It’s all smiles down here in my sunny Mediterranean lair – account flashing bright green and I have converted several ST campaigns into daily ones (more on that below). Judging by the thundering silence none of you guys followed suit here yesterday afternoon which is extremely disappointing. Not to boast but my seven year track record suggests a pretty high success rate in flagging important inflection points.


The E-Mini once again turned on a dime right at the lower 100-hour BB, which was one of the support zones I pointed out this morning. Tough one to catch IMO unless of course…


…. you were a Zero subscriber – then you may have seen this one coming. Textbook signal divergence during today’s lows and although you may not have nailed the very bottom I have an inkling some of my Zero subs were able to slip in a few longs here ;-)


Alright, let’s catch up with the ongoing campaigns which I converted into daily ones as of now. NZD/USD now looking pretty solid and I’m leaving my stop at break/even for now. Giving this a lot of space to run.


EUR/JPY – also great entry there yesterday but we’re heading into daily resistance. My stop is already at break/even which may bite me in the ass if we get a LKGB retest.


EUR/USD – sorry to say that it’s looking good as well – there goes my cheap exchange rate I guess, bugger! Also facing resistance here on the daily soon.


AUD/USD – SOLID!!! I’m taking 50% off the table here as I expect a correction at the 25-week SMA, plus after banking 2R+ that’s more than in line with my system rules.


AUD/CAD – damn – this one literally exploded higher. I’ll be taking partial profits above 0.965 where the 100-day SMA awaits.


Wheat triggered on Thor.0 the other day, which is still in beta, and as this is turning into a textbook campaign I wanted to post it here as well. The whole idea behind Thor.0 is that it stays in the campaign as long as possible – we have a theoretical 20R target but don’t expect that one to ever be hit. In contract Thor exits at the 4R mark which is appropriate for that particular strategy. The main difference between those two is that Thor.0 triggers during strong trends as well as the onset of big run – success rate is 50/50 but once it gets going it can go on for weeks.


Corn was another Thor.0 entry and I think the original Thor would have taken 4R profits by now. As you can see the weekly is offering support here and this is where this campaign may fail. It has already taken 50% off the table at the 2R mark and now it’s basically a matter of whether or not this one turns into a runner. The BBs on the daily are about to start falling lower and if that happens there’s nothing but air below.


Crude update – yes, I’m still in that one. Many analysts are expecting this to be the highs for now but I’m not so sure. It’s been holding up pretty nicely and those 100-day SMA is starting to compress. I’m leaving my stop below that NLSL at 53.93 – let’s see if she decides to move against the common consensus, wouldn’t be the first time.


Bonds – a possible setup today. I’m actually waiting to be precariously long here today near 161 and if my stop nearby gets touched I’ll turn it into a short. Why? Well, look at the daily panel – could drop like a rock from here until about 154.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


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