We Got Movement

We’re seeing an interesting failure on the equities side today – seems like it took a few people by surprise and so it should! Judging by the participation a large portion of traders has been locked out of the rally and participation continues to wear thin:

2015-03-03_zero

I’ve kept telling people to anticipate a sell off but to remain patient as I have not seen any technical context to hang our hat on. That may be changing now as this stab lower may not hold but will help us establish potential sell opportunities if it heads higher. Quite frankly that signal signature on the hourly Zero looks extremely strange and is starting to reek like distribution.

2015-03-03_spoos_update

The E-Mini isn’t giving us much right now and I wouldn’t chase this move lower.

2015-03-03_NQ_setup

The NQ however is looking juicy on an hourly basis – I’m thinking long 1/2R here if it drops by a handle or so - put your stop below 4430. The context is pretty good above that daily NLSL and it’s worth to BTFD here. However, that said – if stopped out I am grabbing a short position as we may accelerate lower. Also, if it actually continues higher I will be looking for short opportunities – but let’s address that when/if we get there.

2015-03-03_EURCHF_update

EUR/CHF update – this was the only one that triggered and it’s looking positive so far – this is the type of price action we want to see. If it manages to heave itself above 1.077 then move your stop to break/even.

2015-03-03_crude_setup

Alright – we got a nice list of setups today – here’s crude which I want now with a stop below 49.6. Now bear in mind that it’s still in sideways churn mode and it will test your patience. Which however may be rewarded in the near future. When crude starts trending it doesn’t mess around.

2015-03-03_crude_thor

As a side note – crude also seems to be a decent contract for trading Thor – here are the past five years. As you can tell it goes through phases – did very well in 2010 and 2011 and then went sideways throughout 2013 into early 2014. After which it took off like gang busters. There was a pretty lively discussion on the board yesterday on the topic of excluding badly performing symbols. This is an example of where I would not even think about excluding it – there is simply no predicting when it goes back into rocket mode again.

2015-03-03_gold_thor

Gold however has been on a rampage in the past give years, clearly there was less trending potential in the past two years but it seems to be back in vogue now – at least via Thor. Looking forward to seeing more of that in the course of this year.

Alright – more setups below the fold – please step into my lair:


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That’s all I got for today – see you guys on the other side!

Cheers,

Setups Deluxe

Not a very interesting day on the equities side unless you enjoy playing the swings, in which case the sideways range on the E-Mini for instance offered quite some opportunity for jumping in and out. It’s the sort of day when the Zero really shines and not surprisingly it painted a pretty juicy Mole reversal signal during the mid day stab lower – plus note a very distinct signal divergence during the highs:

2015-03-01_zero

However what really caught my attention is the repeating pattern that its presenting itself on the hourly Zero panel (the lower panel). It’s starting to look like a heart beat and since it represents participation to the up/down side my conclusion is that buy/sell programs are bouncing the ball back/forth here. I looked around for signs of distribution or divergences on the momo side but still see very little.

2015-03-02_UVOL_DVOL

My UVOL/DVOL panel seems to support that notion as both lines are almost in perfect sync and are steadily rising – easy as she goes. Again, great day for swing traders, everyone else be nimble and be long near today’s lows and short near the highs (unless we breach above ES 2015 – see charts below).

2015-03-02_spoos_volume_hole

The E-Mini volume profile shows us a pretty deep volume hole at 2010 which now has been touched 2 1/2 times (the first one missed it by a tick or two). So that should serve as an inflection point moving forward – on the upside we have a ceiling near 2015.

2015-03-02_spoos_update

Which also is represented by a NLBL at 2014.75 – a breach above that by a tick or two and we are probably off to the races for another stab higher.

2015-03-02_USDCAD_triangle_setup

But I promised setups and am happy to deliver as we’ve got a ton today, especially on the futures side. But first Forex – here’s the USD/CAD which is painting a descending triangle formation. Now the odds for a breach higher is pretty low – I think we are talking like 15% or so. Which affects your position sizing – your odds of success are low but accordingly your pay off is high as many traditional chartists will expect a break down lower here – perhaps after a fake out spike higher. Sure, may happen, but every once in a while it just keeps running higher and burns the shorts in the process. Therefore my plan is to add 1/4R on a breach of 125.5 and another 1/4R on a breach above 1.266 – give/take a few ticks. 1/2R total with a stop below the 25-day SMA.

2015-03-02_cocoa_setup

Cocoa – very nice formation here and I’ll be long above today’s hammer with a stop below the NLSL (you can also use today’s low as usual).

Quite a bit more below the fold – please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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Cheers,

Setups Setups Setups

Way too much chatter on this board and way too little hands on trading. Almost none of you are riding this higher due to either a) lack of effort b) propensity for mental masturbation or c) trying to make predictions. Seriously? After six years plus of Evil Speculator goodness I expect a lot more from you guys. So once again, let me show you how it’s done:

2015-02-12_spoos_update

The bulls are clearly back in charge here as we have crossed all bullish inflection points and are now squeezing the tape higher. What I like in particular here is that the upper 25-day BB is now starting to point up, which means there’s almost nothing but air above. Well, I said almost – there is a weekly NLBL at ES 2088.75 but we just sliced through the one at 2062.25 and may have enough velocity to push it over the edge. That said – tomorrow is the last session ahead of a three day weekend (PrezDay) – and I have an inkling we’ll park up here and leave any remaining bears to roast for a few days.

2015-02-12_UVOL

Bots clearly in buy mode – look how smooth the UVOL line is climbing today. The squeeze is on! Heck, I’m just glad we are finally outside that dreaded trading range we’ve been locked in for over a month. The human sacrifice I offered the other day seemed to have appeased Mrs. Market. Gold Gerb – thanks for taking one for the team – you will be missed.

2015-02-12_Thor_NQ

Boy, I almost didn’t catch this pig except for the ST longs on the ES I put on the other day. However Thor came to the rescue and the current campaign is about 0.75R away from its target.

2015-02-12_setups

I promised setups galore, so step right into the lair – we even have a VIP section. And what happens in the lair, stays in the lair!

2015-02-12_EURJPY_setup

EUR/JPY – long here with a stop below the 100-hour SMA. It’s still early in the game but there is a good chance that the 25-day SMA remains in place. 1/2R only – if she goes we probably get a runner.

2015-02-12_crude_setup

Crude – long above the 100-hour SMA with a stop below 50. 1/2R only – I do love the formation on the daily but we cannot exclude the potential for more monkey business as there are too many eyes on this symbol.


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Alright, that ought to keep you rats entertained for a while – have at it and hopefully I see a bit more participation in the comment section. The Mole deserves better!

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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    1. Friday Morning Briefing
    2. Selling The Bounces
    3. Short Term Entry Opportunity
    4. Lower Highs And Lower Lows
    5. Wednesday Morning Briefing
    6. We Got Movement
    7. Tuesday Morning Briefing
    8. Setups Deluxe
    9. Thor Back Tested Past Five Years
    10. Long Term Equities Update