Wednesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2015-01-28_spoos_briefing

I’m grabbing a short if the spoos touch 2040 and change – stop above 2045. Low odds of a slide but big payoff. On stop out I’d flip for a long with a stop below 2040. A direction will most likely present itself here before the week is over, this thing is coiled up to the max and ready to jump.

2015-01-28_GBPUSD_briefing

Cable – long with a stop below the 25-hour SMA. Only 1/2R as it’s early in this push and one must be ready for a little shake out. Could have legs though.

2015-01-28_crude_briefing

Definitely experimental long on crude – I should have my head checked but this ST formation does look pretty good to me. 1/2R only here – entered right here with a stop below 45.

A few more ST setups below the fold:


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2015-01-28_events

Plenty of event risk later this afternoon but we should be okay for the next five and a half hours.

Happy hunting!

Setup Tuesday!

We’ve been through some nasty tape over the past week but I have an inkling that’s about to change. Things are slowly coming into focus and it’s probably not accidental that we’ve got setups crawling out of the woodwork this morning. So it’s going to be a busy morning – grab a cup of coffee or your favorite tea, roll up your sleeves, and be ready to pull that trigger!

2015-01-27_spoos_briefing

Quick update on the spoos – up/down/up/down – I think I’m getting sea sick. Whether or not this is yet another berar trap is beyond me but what I do know is that 2062 remains unchallenged thus far. I know I’ve been sounding like a broken record over the past week or two but this market is NOT healthy. Be on your guard!

I’m going to be short here below 2040 – long above the NLBL at 2047.75 – in between it’s a coin toss.

2015-01-27_GBPJPY_briefing

Okay, setups setups – we got aplenty. GBP/JPY – long here with a stop below 177.8.

2015-01-27_AUDCAD_briefing

AUD/CAD – long here with a stop below 0.9882.

2015-01-27_cotton_briefing

Let’s not skimp on the futures either – I’m long cotton with a stop below 58.

But we’re just getting warmed up – please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

Tape Phase Transitions

No short term setup on the equities front but there’s plenty on our plate across the futures and of course the forex side, so it’s going to be a busy Monday. However the hourly E-Mini today is a great example of how the tape repeatedly transitions through different phases with dynamics (and thus odds) constantly shifting. This year’s first sell off started after a very tightly squeezed Bollinger (both the 25 and the 100 – I’m always using a 2.0 for std dev). It immediately trended down without a single close above the 25-hour SMA.

2015-01-12_spoos_thresholds

Thanks to the Zero we actually got in at 1990 but frankly speaking we were very lucky as technically there was very little to suggest a low was in place. However when looking at the situation it’s clear that a squeeze to the 100-hour SMA was almost guaranteed – the blue squares demonstrate how the corrective zone was growing constantly as price was falling away from the 100-hour (you could easily use a 50 or a 75 or a 150 – it’s just a personal lens I use).

The very first hurdle to was the 25-hour SMA and once it was overcome a run higher to the 100-hour had very good odds. That is the very reason why I often look for inflection points near the 25-hour (or again you could easily use a 21 or a 30 – whatever works for you). The area in between is rather easy pickings and once price touches the next major hurdle, the 100-hour SMA, you have the choice to either close out or convert it into a daily campaign by moving your stop near break/even in anticipation of continuation higher.

If the 100-hour is overcome the bulls usually have a pretty good chance to make it to the upper 100-hour BB, however that is most likely where we encounter new selling pressure, the strength of which will decide whether or not we just produce a little correction or we go back to retest the lows. And that is the situation we are in right now – we are in that no-man’s zone which delineates bullish territory from the big bad snarling bear. The 100-hour often makes for great retest dip-buys – there are never any guarantees and you should look for correlated measures (i.e. momentum, velocity, participation, volume, etc.) to pick an entry.

Of course it is exactly here where great entries can be found – to both the down and upside. I usually try to identify as much context as I can find (i.e. Net-Lines, moving averages, price patterns, support clusters, what have you…) and then decide where I want to be long and where I want to be short.

2015-01-12_GBPUSD_briefing

Now given my general approach it’s easy to see why I want to be long cable right now – it’s got very low odds to succeed down here BUT we are enjoying a very tightly squeezed BB pair plus the SMAs are starting to inverse; there’s a NLSL right below and that’s where I’ll place my stop.

2015-01-12_NG_briefing

Natgas is a bit of a lottery ticket – I always call it the widow-maker for a reason. We may see another bounce higher here and I’m currently long near those lows with a stop below 2.8.

Quite a bit more below the fold – please meet me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,




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