Let’s Dive Right In

So, are we finally done yet? Through how many more holidays will the Mole have to suffer? And there’s another one coming on February 16th – it just never ends! You think I may be kidding but I’m actually halfway serious. Look, I enjoy some time off as much as the next steel rat but as soon as there’s a holiday the entire trading week before and after is pretty much shot. Enough is enough – time to bank some coin.

2015-01-20_spoos_briefing

Alright equities – it seems like the bears are going to fumble this one again. The spoos are looking good here and today’s session should decide whether this is one last bull trap or if the bulls are getting blown out of the water. See that hourly NLBL – I’m catching it with a long and my stop is below 2013. Got to hedge my NQ short position which (thank the trading gods) has its stop at b/e by now.

2015-01-20_crude_briefing

Crude – long here with a stop below 47.5. IF we finally get a pop above 50 this thing will grow some legs. Until then we’ll have to suffer through the sideways churn.

Two more goodies below the fold – please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

Swiss Only Learn The Hard Way

If you just woke up and found your Forex account in flames then let me give you the skinny. The Swiss National Bank finally realized the errors of their currency pegging ways and decided to suddenly throw in the towel. Which of course triggered a massive dislocation across Forex markets as the Swiss Franc surged by 30pc. As I’m typing this the Swiss stock exchange is a sea of red dropping as much as 14%. Well done!

swiss_idiot

Now when I was a young kid traveling in Europe a Swiss train conductor kicked me out of the train in the middle of nowhere somewhere in the hinterlands of rural Italy because I couldn’t afford a pass for the sleep wagons (there were only sleep wagons on that train). Since that day I can’t stand the Swiss and for good reason. They are stubborn as heck and they only learn the hard way. And that’s coming from someone who actually went to Kindergarten there! I hope the SMI gets cut in half you cow tipping alphorn blowing wankers.

2015-01-15_EURUSD_briefing

So let’s observe the damage. Here’s the EUR/USD – dropped toward 1.15 and has recovered a bit of that first wipeout. Word has it that the Swiss will now have to sell a ton of Euros (at massive losses) and that probably means more downside on that front.

2015-01-15_EURCHF_briefing

Is that an ugly chart or what? EUR/CHF – back from whence we came back in 2011 when they screwed with everyone the first time around.

2015-01-15_dollar_briefing

Dollar got kicked in the head and then in the balls. I don’t recommend you pick any direction here at this point – let it settle down.

2015-01-15_spoos_briefing

U.S. equities rather tranquil in comparison. But look at all that volatility over the past few sessions. So far that support cluster appears to be holding however – the onus is now on the bears to take it lower. Today. If they can’t drag this sucker lower on a day like this they’re toast (again).

2015-01-15_gold_briefing

Gold update – jumped higher as should be expected. My entry at 2012 is starting to look solid now.

2015-01-15_crude_briefing

Crude is taking advantage of all the confusion and is trying to make a run for it – the 50 mark is in its sights. This would be a long/buy if it breaks the daily NLBL.

A few juicy setups below the fold – meet me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

Party Like It’s 1999

A sea of red candles across the board with the exception of the Dollar of course and the bonds. In my last post of 2014 I mused that the new year would be a tough one for equities but little did I know that we’d start it off with a down slide.

2015-01-05_spoos_LT

I strongly suggest you don’t try to step underneath this one as it’s very much possible that we’ll retest the ES2k mark. Both the 100-day SMA and the 25-week SMA are waiting there, which doesn’t mean it’ll stem the sell off but it’s our next best support cluster.

2015-01-05_DVOL

Today’s DVOL curve suggests a very well organized sell side – don’t take this lightly – the bots are inflicting as much pain as possible and I don’t think they’re done just yet.

2015-01-05_spoos_profile

Even if they were – there’s no technical context for us to dip into long positions here. On the volume profile chart we see the volume hole at 2020 having offered practically no support whatsoever. And that’s pretty bad news as it’s testimony to the strength of this sell off. Even if we bounce here there may be another leg lower – the (very abridged) Santa Rally brought us to new highs but remember what I said about late stage bull markets. Things are only going to get more volatile moving forward.

2015-01-05_crude_LT

The big news of the day however is crude which actually dipped below the coveted 50 mark. At the danger of sounding repetitive – do not try to pick a low here yet – price will tell us when it’s ready to produce a floor. Trust me, a many have tried and failed over the past few weeks, and hopefully you have heeded my advice and ignored any urges to buy the dips.

More importantly however is that we’re also scraping the lower 100-month BB. I had to zoom out quite a bit to find the last occurrence, which was back in the 20th century – mid 1999 to be precise.

Aaah – the good old times… when $30 crude was considered a selling opportunity. I remember filling up my car for 99 cent per gallon, and that was in West Hollywood. I doubt that we’ll ever see those prices again and as a matter of fact we are at a pain threshold that already has huge implications for an entire industry. My chart suggests that a bounce will present itself here shortly – if it doesn’t then I may have to eat my words as there’s nothing but air below. Statistically speaking however a bounce sometime this month has high probabilities, especially after six consecutive lower months (not counting January).

That doesn’t mean we’re buying the 50 mark – however it does mean that I’ll be on the lookout for possible buying opportunities on both the hourly and the daily charts. You know how I operate – I rarely take weekly entries – instead I take hourly or daily ones and let them turn into weekly campaigns. That’s how we rode the Dollar last year and it banked us some very nice coin.

The other chart which touched very long term technical context today was the EUR/USD – so we’ve got a  twofer today! Please step into my lair for a bit more detail on that front:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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    1. Setup Tuesday!
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