Well I’ll Be Damned!

I keep regurgitating the fact that having an opinion as a trader means abso-diddly nothing. Case in point are a series of previously juicy looking futures campaigns which quickly met their maker either last night or earlier this morning. Gone are my sugar long, the coffee short, copper short, and the silver short. All of them seemed ready to put the pedal to the metal but wound up being led to the woodshed in the end. Fortunately I had the good sense of advancing my stops to the break/even mark when I saw a consolidated reversal across the board. I’m not much of a correlation trader but I can take a damn hint ;-)


But strangely the campaigns I was most skeptical about are now progressing nicely – at least thus far. Last night’s long entry on the spoos was rather experimental and I’m still not convinced that this thing resolves higher. But on the off chance that it does then we may get the squeeze of all squeezes and I’m well positioned to ride it all the way. My stop has now been advanced to the break/even mark – officially joining the strong hands club.


Speaking of which: Crude is finally off to the races and there’s someone smiling over in the Kremlin tonight – and of course down here in Valencia as well. The lowly Mole tried three times to catch a seat on this particular bus and it seems my efforts are in the process of finally being rewarded. It’s not impossible to expect a retest of the 100-day SMA but the odds thus far support continuation – perhaps after a obligatory shake out candle or two. My target is 64 – yes, that’s right, I have nefarious plans for this one. Crude world domination is only days away ;-0

Well, that’s all I have to offer tonight – I’m running a bit late over here and I have nothing new on the setup front. Of course I’ll be back tomorrow morning, bright eyed and bushy tailed as always. Remember – one day at a time – consistency above all is key.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


Bait And Switch Tuesday

Guys – don’t let this happen to you! If you’ve been trading equities for more than a few months then you probably have seen the following play out: Equities are dropping near the open, everything is screaming sell. Suddenly there’s a spike to the upside which triggers more bids and results in a short squeeze continuing most of the session. So how to keep from getting screwed like this and in many other ways on a recurring basis?


Simple! Sign up for the Zero which shows you real participation on a 5-minute basis. What you are looking at above is a textbook bullish divergence on the Zero Lite during the quick drop post NYSE open. May I also add that yesterday’s sell off had very little juice as evidenced by the tiny signal range accompanying it. That’s not always a sure sign of a bear trap but it bodes paying attention the following day near the open.

What worries me more however is the ‘heartbeat’ like signal on the hourly Zero (left panel). I have seen this a few weeks ago and it preceded a shake out a few days after. Which brings me to the next chart:


The E-Mini is continuing to flesh out a sideways wedge of some sort and I have a hard time justifying entries anywhere except near the extremes. However, that said – the hourly is looking good and I just added 1/4R with a stop below 2084.25 (VWAP). Low odds on this one succeeding however, you have been warned.


My NQ campaign met Sir Gregor Clegane today who made quick business out of my long positions by chopping them into pieces. Not a big deal as they were nicely in profit but a shame nevertheless given the jump higher.


Updates updates – Sugar looking good but I’m moving my stop to break/even as I don’t trust a concerted number of pull backs all across the futures and forex.


Coffee – always suspected this one may be a trap and I closed it out near break/even. This one just doesn’t have the mojo and I’m too correlated with all the other open futures positions already.


Copper – looked so juicy and then pulled back. Still like this one but I’m moving my stop to break/even as well.


Silver – also moving my stop to break/even. Not a definite rule in my systems but when it happens across the board I think it’s more than justifiable, especially given my current exposure. So let’s see how many of them survive the night and into tomorrow – if they hold below I think we may have real runner potential as this was quite a shake out today.


Crude – I bet you all forgot about this one already! I took a second long position on the 9th and so far it’s remained in play courtesy of my more conservative stop below the 50 mark. It’s finally tickling the 100-day SMA now and perhaps it’ll muster up enough mojo to finally break free. Anyway, keeping my stop below the 50 mark as I’ve been waiting for this one to play out a while now.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


Let’s Not Overthink This

Yes, in case you are wondering, we are seeing clear signs of distribution or accumulation. Which one exactly it is – well, we can’t be sure and my crystal ball is still in the shop. However that said, I don’t see anything disturbing on the momo front – at least not yet. So as usual I’ll have to go with price:


Since we took this snapshot we’ve dipped down a little again and if you’re looking to grab long positions you may get a better entry near the 25-hour which currently sits near 2075.  On the short side it seems that the 100-hour should be our best guide at this point – it’s been tested and the 25-hour is also near. Anything between the 100-hour and 25 hour SMAs is limbo territory – feel free to grab positions but probably it’s best to use the extremes for inverse entries.

A drop below the 100-hour could drag us a bit lower but it doesn’t get serious until we breach the 100-day at 2057.5. I think from there the bears may have a real shot at dragging this beast lower. I’m sure all that sonds a bit confusing and frankly I can’t offer the perfect entry here either.


Or can I? Of course you may simply play the daily setup which is a hammer (thus far) – be long above it and short below it. And in between you can play the swings at your heart’s content ;-)


GBP/CAD – taken to the woodshed, water boarded, and then disposed of – another great entry bites the dust. Bummer really but it was always experimental as the trend obviously remains to the downside.


USD/JPY – here we are in much much better shape. I’m advancing my stop as indicated and am prepared to hold this sucker through a possible short squeeze. This in fact has been my approach in the past few years – get a seat early (i.e. via the hourly) in promising daily formations. This in fact is how I got into the NQ early as well.

A few setups below the fold for my ever intrepid subs:

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.



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