Crappy Morning Briefing

Yeah, I got pretty much nothing this morning – the Euro is still squeezing (told ya’ll!) and equity futures are still running in circles with no end in sight. It’s only mid May but this feels like July tape.


Then we have Draghi running his mouth at the IMF headquarters a little after the open at 11:00am, which is probably going to blast forex all over the place. And to top it all off for me – my Internet is crawling this morning, nothing seems to work properly, and it’s going to be a scorcher here in Valencia with temperatures exceeding 41 degrees Celsius (over 106 Fahrenheit). Maybe it is July after all and nobody told me.


Miraculously I was somehow able to extract two charts and I am just going to throw them out for you guys. AUD/NZD – I’m waiting for a little drop to 1.076 to grab a long position with a stop below 1.072.


Crude – as you know I’m already in this for the long haul. But this is a pretty decent spot to grab a ST entry near the 100-hour SMA – assuming it drops to 60.1. Put your stop below 59.80 and Bob’s your uncle.

And that’s it for now – if you don’t hear back from me this afternoon then I probably died from a heatstroke on the way to the gym. Fortunately I have already arranged to have my head frozen so that I can be reanimated and connected to a big trading AI a few decades from now.


It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.



We’ve Got Movement

Despite yesterday’s lottery tickets the odds supported continuation lower and that’s exactly what we got. Early in the morning near the open there was a moment when I thought the bulls still had a chance – yesterday’s lows had held up overnight and we were slowly crawling higher. However shortly after the bell that low was crushed and it’s been a sea of read since. Let’s see where we are and where we may be heading:


The E-Mini is now touching its 100-day SMA and the easy part of the journey is over. That doesn’t mean it’s the end of the line for the bears. We are most likely going to close below the daily NLSL at 2070.25 and despite a bounce we could easily continue lower afterward. As I’m typing this our current line of defense is the weekly NLSL at 2064 and if that one doesn’t hold we have a stack terminating near 2030. Below that the bulls are quite frankly screwed.


Yesterday I showed you guys this P&F chart and pointed at 2080 as a level to keep your eye on. Well, if we close below that – and the odds are high we do then we’ll finalize a double bottom break down on our SPX P&F chart. The current temporary target is 2020 – my money says we may drop lower. Again, if we bounce right here this may change again. A run back to 2095 would trigger a low pole reversal warning.

Oh – you didn’t see that chart? Probably because you’re not a sub – an unfortunate situation you should remedy! ;-)


Our crude campaign is proceeding according to our nefarious plan. What can I say – we got a perfect entry there and I’m holding this all the way. My trailing stop now advances to 56.07.


We’re not in this one but bonds have literally fallen off the plate over the past few days. I’m seeing very very soft support here but would not dare taking entries until price confirms that a low may be in place. Anyway, keep an eye on this one. If you’re short – don’t bloody touch it and let your trailing stop take care of you.


Very very nice setups tonight – I’ll throw one out for free the rest is for the subs only. Palladium – long above 796.80 – my stop goes below today’s lows.

Quite a few more waiting below the fold:

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Did I promise too much? Now let’s go and get that money!


Zero Divergence

Quite a fascinating sell off today – that bump against the daily NLBL was all the bulls were able to muster. Perhaps it would have been smarter to take profits there yesterday (on the NQ) but I personally prefer to ride the long cons – meaning I get in early if I can and ride those suckers out. Of course what happens quite often is that you give up previously coined paper profits. Part of the game really – I got out a bit above break/even so if nothing else it’s been educational ;-)


Here’s the E-mini in all its ignominy – straight down near those hourly Net-Lines. The daily has us back at the 25-day SMA but don’t be so sure that a bounce is procedural now.


The Zero is rather fascinating which is why I didn’t want to miss this opportunity to post it. The hourly panel shows us a strong spike to the downside. That was quite a failure near the top and we have two possibilities now:

  1. This is the mother of all bear traps and we’ll be seeing a counter move here post haste.
  2. The jig is up for the bulls – we’re testing the 100-day SMA and most likely drop right through it.

See this is the problem with those sideways formations – you really never know when you are in a break out until you’re well in it (and it’s too late to get positioned). I think we can all agree that this is one ugly chart formation – whatever you want to call it. Fear ranks high right now and very few people are going to try to be long here.

Which brings me to the Zero Lite on the right. Pretty distinct divergence here, which not always means that we’ll see a bounce back. We may just have run out of selling pressure and if we drop through key support near the well tested 25-day SMA we may get more of the same. But yes, there is a small statistical chance that we reverse here which is why I just grabbed a few E-Mini contracts. Just a small position as I don’t see anything clearly bullish on this chart.

Let’s be clear about this. We are in the late stages of a LT bull market and market conditions have evolved significantly over the past year. What we are seeing are fast surges followed by drawn out sideways corrections. The bulls are living on borrowed time and I think sometime this year there will be a price to pay for six years of bullish exuberance.

So why am I long here? Because it’s a short term opportunity and I’m not in the business of predicting LT tops or bottoms. Not my game – at least not anymore – when I did I was actually doing quite well but it’s not something you can base a trading career on. And taking it one day at a time with eye on the ongoing trend has been the proper recipe over the past few years.

Some very juicy goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs – please step into my lair:

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Things are about to get a lot more exciting – let’s put on our game faces.


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