Wrapping Up The Month

As usual October has been a pretty capricious month and there wasn’t a dry eye left in the house. Tomorrow will be its last trading session but since Sunday is Halloween I don’t expect much activity. So let’s take a quick look at where we are on some of the most salient charts:

2014-10-30_EURO_monthly

The most ominous chart right now must be the Euro. We finished September near the lower Bollinger and it looks like we will be doing so again. What’s worse most likely it will be a shooting star and a drop below 1.25 may actually lead us toward the 1.2 mark. Frankly that was on my Christmas list last year and it’s about time Santa delivers! For the noobs – I’m a U.S. expat living in Europe – you do the math.

2014-10-30_ES_monthly

Pretty much the inverse situation in equities. This is one of the longest hammer candles I can remember (only challenged by the July 2011 candle) and it has reversed a whole cluster of Net-Line Sell Levels (NLSL). Very very positive and we may be scraping new highs by the end of the year.

2014-10-30_spoos_update

A quick peek at the daily and weekly panels. Nice formation here on the daily (left) side and although we are overdue for a little correction I think we may close the week above the NLBL I highlighted. That would be our first weekly buy signal in a while. With a bit of luck, effort, and some scotch tape we may be ready to roll into Santa season. Frankly a little shake out beforehand would actually be healthy and shake out some of the late comers.

But the best chart today I will have to reserve for my intrepid subs – we are most likely near one of the best monthly buying opportunities of the year:


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Bonus Chart:

2014-10-30_zero

Nice bearish divergence today on the Zero Light.

Cheers,

RIPQE

Here lies the charred remains of Quantitive Easing – Time Of Death: 2pm October 29th, 2014. May you rest in piece – it’s been fun. The market is now officially on QE cold turkey (just in time for Halloween I may add). So when are they announcing QE4?  Just kidding!

Well, the good news: the Dollar is up and the Euro continues to drop as I’m typing this. Which of course serves this expat just fine. Alright – let’s review the damage, shall we?

2014-10-29_GC_update

Big FAIL on the gold front – it never even had a chance of touching that NLBL on the daily. The weekly appears to be a goner as well. Next target is the weekly NLSL at 1183.3.

2014-10-29_EURUSD_update

The Euro – ouch, that is one ugly chart. Technically we have now established a falling diagonal which should act as resistance on the next bounce. What doesn’t help the Euro’s case is that it just sliced through that daily NLSL as well.

2014-10-29_DX_update

Obviously the inverse on the Dollar front – if you squint you can make out the finger of God on the hourly panel. On the daily we also now established a rising diagonal and it just crushed a NLSL which should not start acting as support. Very nice and a breach of the old highs are now a possibility.

2014-10-29_SPX_update

Equities – actually thus far they’ve been holding up pretty well! I don’t see anything nasty here and my long positions remain in good shape. Nothing to add really – let’s see how we close the week. But this is pretty positive.

A few setups while I have your attention – please step into my lair:


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Cheers,

Falling Swords

The best advice I can offer you guys right now is to not resort to guesswork when it comes to when we’ll see a low. We are sailing in dangerous waters and if you’re not already short then simply wait it out – get used to the idea that you missed the boat. Anything can happen down here and it will!

2014-10-15_1412

Most importantly don’t fall prey to mental masturbation such as this. So it’s Ebola that’s bringing down the market now? Is that a fact? It couldn’t possibly have anything to do with the fact that the Fed’s money pump is slowly drying up? Or that we’ve been in a raging bull market for five years and counting which is begging for a correction?

It’s strange how the financial media continues to draw correlations between events and market cycles, even if they are disproven over and over again. And even IF those events were the actual cause – it’s useless to follow them as there is no chance of exploiting the information. How many people went long crude thinking that Russian supply disruptions in Europe would swing prices higher? And how exactly has that been working out for you?

Forget about the news – just follow the charts – they tell us all we need to know.

2014-10-15_sppos_briefing

Or NOT. If you recall my write up on market periods – we are in the midst of a rocket right now and there’s no telling when it’ll end. The wave wankers have tried over and over to employ all kinds of measures to project when a ‘third wave’ may end. The last time I tried that was in early 2009 when everyone was looking far below 666 based on their careful counts.

2014-10-15_spoos_volume_profile

The simple truth is that you’ll never know until after the fact – so stop trying to guess. Don’t think you are smarter than the millions of participants who are looking at the very same chart right now. We may bounce here today and hold the 25-week BB, or we could drop like a rock here and not stop until near 1700. I don’t know – but one think I do know for sure:

Never ever attempt to step underneath a falling sword.

2014-10-15_VIX_VXO

The one chart that’s been a thorn in my eye is this one – the VIX:VXO. It keeps pointing up and I really don’t know why. But we are in rough waters as I said and perhaps whoever is pricing those ATM options is tripping over their own hubris. Or they know something I don’t. Whatever it is – when things don’t make sense then you simply wait it out. We’ve done well this year – no sense in getting caught up in all the excitement (i.e. panic) and resort to forcing the issue. That rarely results in profitable trades.

2014-10-15_gold_briefing

Gold is looking pretty interesting right now as it’s fighting to overcome triple resistance. My current entry is betting that it’s going to fail but a few ticks higher above 1230 I’ll be long. Dynamics can shift quickly here and this is an important inflection point – which makes for good entries.

A few more ST charts below the fold:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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    1. Wrapping Up The Month
    2. Getting Paid On Thursday
    3. RIPQE
    4. Strike The Iron While It’s Hot
    5. Don’t Be Afraid Of The Boogeyman
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