Filling The Gaps

Last night’s dramatic gaps at the open across the board have been followed by systematic reversals. Before I went to bed my wife had actually joked that I should run to the ATM and clean it out. Well, when I got up this morning I wished that I had followed her advice:

2015-06-29_EURUSD_briefing

Because that sweet EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.095 is no more. The entire gap has been filled and I can only assume that Greece suddenly doesn’t matter anymore or that a new batch of hopium has hit the streets in expectation of the July 5th referendum.

Being a proponent of game theory I personally believe that the Greeks will vote to stick with the Euro – both sides simply have too much to lose in any other scenario. I also imagine all those Greeks standing in line at the bank today during the smoldering summer heat and that may dampen their resolve to ‘stick it to the EC’ and go it on their own. Don’t get me wrong – as I suggested yesterday my notion is that Greece would actually be better off over the long term but I just don’t see it happen. Fortunately we only have a few days to wait and I’m very much looking forward for this dreaded saga to finally meet some level of resolution.

2015-06-29_gold

Gold also just filled its gap and we are back from whence we came (Friday). Fortunately Scalpius was able to snag a few R here (see below) – that’s certainly a good start.

2015-06-29_spoos_briefing

Equities also on the rebound but thus far it’s been rather modest. The level we should keep our eye on is 2053.5 which marks the weekly Net-Line Sell Level (NLSL) and we traded merely two ticks above it last night. So definitely a technical level to watch and probably the last bastion of support as the 25-week SMA is currently at 2072.

Skynard grabbed a few longs at the open and that took some balls – big props for that mate. I refrained from getting involved after having spent over 25 hours last weekend coding and refining Scalpius as well as refactoring CrazyIvan into a leaner and meaner 2.0 edition (see previous post). Suffice to say I’m exhausted but clearly this will not be a week to rest or relax as volatility is upon us.

Honorable Mention:

2015-06-29_Scalpius_gold

Scalpius grabbed a  nice long position on Gold (and crude) near the lows – not a bad start! Unfortunately it was in a demo/test account – no real action just yet as it’s in early alpha.

Lesson learned:

Let Mrs. Evil handle the forex action moving forward.

Obviously I am not eager to touch anything right now – too much gaping action and it’s too late now to touch any of those moves. Let’s see what happens over the next few hours – I’ll be sure to put up a post later after the open once we see more participation.

 

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Gold!!

I just contracted a sudden bout of gold fever. My trusted donkey is packed and I’m ready to ride out West – which from VLC is short of a 6500 mile journey. Just kidding of course – I’m more of a keyboard miner of sorts, toiling in the digital soil that are the financial markets.

gold-miners

Let’s see if we can’t dig up a few nuggets here, I’m really liking this chart I just stumbled over:

2015-06-23_gold

Now let me clear that it’s early days and that we have not seen any signs of a bounce. I’m grabbing a a few lottery ticket longs as it’s touching a support trend line I painted a week or two back. It’s also touching a daily NLSL and although that doesn’t mean much on its own it’s worth 1/2R. I may add more if I see price respond. DarthMole is also suggesting that we are heading into a low volatility cycle which may help us grab a position here.

Alright, got to run – Mrs. Evil is waiting with dinner.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Meanwhile Down At The Evil Lair

Over the past few weeks I have hinted a few times that I was developing a swing trading system based on Darth Mole. Which you may recall is a simple indicator I developed last year with the aim of predicting expansion in price volatility. Quite a good thing to know if you’re about to enter a symbol and over the past few months we’ve been watching it nail one big swing after the other. Some of you are subscribed to the free email alerts or have seen it in the twitter feed. But for the uninitiated here are a few screen grabs:

2015-06-16_DM_EUR

Here’s DarthMole running against the EURUSD. The blue arrow indicates when you received the alerts.

2015-06-16_DM_CL

Here it is killing it on crude.

2015-06-16_DM_GC

Here it’s calling out gold.

2015-06-16_DM_ZB

And here it’s having fun with the 30-year bonds.

I guess you get the idea – it’s bang on when it comes to predicting volatility. Of course the missing piece always has been DIRECTION. Quite frankly DarthMole has been driving me crazy over the past six months or so – I kept watching it nail those volatility swings day after day and became almost obsessed with developing a system that would take advantage of its uncanny abilities.

For months I spent almost entire weekends scrolling through mountains of charts. Just watching and taking notes of anything that stood out to me. Exhausted and desperate I tried to get Scott involved who took a long look at it and pretty much told me he was seeing no edge. There simply seemed no way of making a directional calls and thus building a system around, no matter how tempting, seemed out of reach. After all volatility knows no directional allegiance – it’s great to know when it’s coming but what to do with it?

But persistent (and a bit obsessive) as I am I kept plugging and testing various ideas – correlations, other indicators, Net-Lines, moving averages, heck, everything I could think of. I realized that taking losses would be part of the process and that any successful system would thrive via large outlier winners followed by a succession of small losers. But when exactly to take that entry was the big puzzle I needed to solve. I was laboring for weeks on end until about three weeks ago the light bulb suddenly came on. The result is a fairly trivial and unoptimized swing trading system which is frankly speaking is killing it across the board. I call it (drum rolls) SCALPIUS. Let me show you:

2015-06-16_USDCAD_scalpius_LT

Scalpius vs. the USD/CAD – all stats show the past 19 months (i.e. since early November 2013).

2015-06-16_copper_scalpius_LT

Copper

2015-06-16_ES_scalpius_LT

The spoos…

2015-06-16_USDJPY_scalpius_LT

But it really really loves Forex for some reason. Here’s the gofer.

2015-06-16_GBPUSD_scalpius_LT

Cable is just a beauty, isn’t it?

2015-06-16_EURUSD_scalpius_LT

EUR/USD – gorgeous…

2015-06-16_scalpius_19_months

And finally here’s a graph showing all symbols above combined. I know – 732R – insane. Took over 2700 campaigns to get there – a bit over six to seven campaigns per week day (i.e. about one per symbol). Yes, it loses more than it wins – the ratio is a win rate of about 1: 1.6. But the winners can be huge and it loves to ride the trends.

In case you’re wondering – no this is not something I plan to offer as a service via email/Jabber alerts. It’s way too busy for that and I’ve learned my lesson with CrazyIvan (remember, only 4 subs left). And honestly I’m still pondering whether or not I’ll be accepting LAMM signal subscribers either. Perhaps a small number in a few months from now – if so only the people who already signed up for the LAMM service recently. Frankly it’s probably the best system I’ve ever build plus it very much suits my trading style. A bit busy but it’s manageable as it’s running on a 60 minute chart.

I’ll be leaving for Austria for a few days on Friday morning and will start trading Scalpius after the 25th when I’m scheduled to be back in Valencia. I’ll keep you guys posted on how it’s doing. In the meantime keep watching out for those DarthMole alerts – I always told you guys there is a great system in there! ;-)

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Happy Independence Day
    2. The Quiet Before The Storm
    3. Timing is everything – Black Gold
    4. Short Term Updates
    5. The Game In A Nutshell
    6. Filling The Gaps
    7. Greece Saga Precautions
    8. Furious And Furious Friday
    9. Dangerous Turf
    10. Forex Update