Painful Ping Pong

I’m not exactly enjoying the current market phase and most likely neither are you. The painful ping pong we are forced to endure for the past few sessions is to some degree courtesy of the Dollar needing to correct. However there’s an apparent lack of sellers since Draghi’s recent jawboning has confirmed the perception of the ECB as remaining dovish. So I guess we’ll gyrate around sideways for a while.

2014-11-17_dollar_update

Just looking at the action of the past week is making me nauseous – clearly this is not a good time to be trading Forex. So I suggest we don’t force the issue and wait until this thing plays out. The Santa Rally is nigh – we can be patient and we all have been through worse.

2014-11-17_spoos_update

Similar situation on the equities side and I would suggest the same here. I did propose an experimental inside day period entry on the spoos last Friday and that blew up in our face. I did take a short (as I’m still long) but have little appetite for adding positions here (13R is enough – even for this manic market megalomaniac).

2014-11-17_natgas_update

Update on natgas – grabbed 1/2R here last week and we’re off to the races. That’s quite a jump higher and it’s why I only recommended half a unit here – no wonder we call it the widow maker. I’m not going to touch this campaign until it either banks me 2R or my stop at break/even is being touched. If she really picks up the pace I may extend my target – I’ll keep you posted.

I have two juicy setups waiting in the bullpen but need to keep those for my intrepid subs:


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Cheers,

Rational Ambivalence

Finally we are correcting a little. Don’t get me wrong – I rarely tire of banking coin but we need to see at least an obligatory correction before the Santa season hits late this month. My NQ campaign was obviously stopped out (with ample profits) and that still leaves the ES campaign which I have been trailing via Net-Lines and spike lows:

2014-11-13_ES_update

Which means I’m currently drawing the line a tick below 2020.5 which would still leave me in the plus 12R. If we drop below that then it’ll be difficult to suggest support levels. We have been rising like a rocket and there is very little context below. I think we need to see a bit more tape here – so far it’s been pretty lackluster.

2014-11-13_NZDUSD_setup

NZD/USD is starting to look like a possible floor – weeks of pain after a very solid down trend. Now it’s peeked above the 25-day SMA plus a NLBL which has me long right here with a stop below yesterday’s lows.

Two more goodies below the fold, please join me in the lair:


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Cheers,

The End Of The Beginning

We are seeing tepid signs of buying interest but it’s not exactly convincing – at least not thus far. We need to see a lot more mojo down here as we have reached the last line of defense - a slip up here and it’ll be one long cold winter for the bulls.

2014-10-14_spoos_update

That drop below the lower 100-day Bollinger should have never happened – but it’s on the books now and there will be consequences. The only remaining level of support that’s keeping us from falling off the plate is the (very much untested) lower 25-week BB and thus far it seems to be holding. Let me be clear: A drop below 1850 will open the floodgates and we most likely find ourselves at 1750 or lower.

Bottom Line: The bulls have a vested interest in holding 1850 – for below it the abyss awaits. But whether or not we bounce here – this is BAD and most likely it’s not the end of the story. To quote good ole’ Winston:

“This is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, but it is perhaps the end of the beginning.”

2014-10-14_crude_update

Talking about falling off plate and all – here’s another recent turkey – crude. Wow – that’s a massive drop and it very much resembles what we’re seeing on the equites front. Just worse. We are now on death watch and I’m posting the LT chart for a reason. What we need here now (imagine Winston saying it) is last kiss goodbye maneuver, after which we will deploy our troops to deliver the final death knell. The Mole will be on the case here – that much you can bet on.

One measly setup waiting below for the subs – but it’s a good one ;-)


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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  3. recent misdeeds

    1. One Chart Says It All
    2. Monday Snooze
    3. Monday Morning Briefing
    4. The Slow Walk-Down
    5. It Keeps Going And Going And….
    6. The Bots Are Back!
    7. An Impending Trend Shift?
    8. Fade The Noise – Play The Game
    9. Tuesday Morning Briefing
    10. Painful Ping Pong