Pay Attention Now

I must agree with Skynard’s musing earlier this morning – we are about to see a large move on the forex and futures front. Equities are simply the tail being wagged by a big (and currently snarling) dog. Time to pay attention – summer or not – these are conditions in which to bank some coin.

2015-07-23_spoos_briefing

We are somewhat in limbo on the spoos right now but I think we’ve got an short term inflection point around 2114 – so if we push up a little I’m planning to be short until 2115 – long above that. Small position sizing here as I’m preserving my capital for much better setups (see below).

2015-07-23_EURCAD_update

EUR/CAD update – our evil plan is proceeding as planned and this is now officially a daily campaign. I’m trailing a respectable distance away to lock in a bit of profit just in case but allow enough room for a continuation higher.

2015-07-23_ZB_briefing

Bonds – I’m actually already in ZN but if you have an appetite for exposure I think the ZB is looking trendy this morning.

2015-07-23_natgas

Natgas – I’m short near the high of the current trading range. Actually I think this is about to breach higher so I plan to flip for a long near 2.93. As you know NG can move fast so I’ve programmed it all in for quick execution.

Quite a bit more looming below the fold – please meet me in the lair:


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That ought to keep you guys busy for a while. Enjoy the setups but don’t get over exposed – and I’m referring especially a certain reader with a shampoo like avatar.

Cheers,

Only The Paranoid Survive

Originally attributed to Any Grove, the founder of Intel Corporation, this has remained one of my favorite quotes and one that has kept me out of trouble over and over again in my time spent as a trader. It always pays to watch your six and if you think you live in turbulent times after following the ongoing Grexit saga over the weekend then think again. Here’s a quote by Andy which summarizes the first twenty years of his life:

By the time I was twenty, I had lived through a Hungarian Fascist dictatorship, German military occupation, the Nazis’ “Final Solution,” the siege of Budapest by the Soviet Red Army, a period of chaotic democracy in the years immediately after the war, a variety of repressive Communist regimes, and a popular uprising that was put down at gunpoint. . . [where] many young people were killed; countless others were interned. Some two hundred thousand Hungarians escaped to the West. I was one of them.

So however bad you think you have it – think again. Things could be a lot worse. Of course not to diminish the situation in Greece right now. I often image myself living there, unemployed, broke, and standing in line in the smoldering summer heat trying to pull my last few Euros out of my bank account. In comparison I live a rather a sheltered existence - which of course could change at a moment’s notice (I reside in Spain). Which is why I personally employ a mixture of living in the now bundled with basic preparation and diversification.

2015-07-06_spoos_gaps

And that should be a standard policy given what I expect in the months ahead. After indecision and a six months + sideways churn we are now seeing successive gapping action across various market verticals. That is not a sign of a healthy market and the wheels could come off here at any moment. So just because the almost reflexive BTFD perhaps worked for you last week doesn’t mean it’s a good idea moving forward.

2015-07-06_EUR_gaps

Be cautious and avoid charts which signal uncertainty – the EUR/USD certainly is one of them. Given the weekend headlines the drop back to 1.1 is actually rather mild, just like when we gapped here last week. But we could see a huge jump or drop here at a moment’s notice (without the notice), and it won’t have anything to do with technical inflection points but rather political brinksmanship played for months/years finally coming to a sudden resolution. Remember that six sigma events happen when we don’t expect them. People have expected one for months here – and perhaps it will happen when everyone thinks the situation has been resolved. I personally don’t have a crystal ball but I do know a dangerous chart when I see one.

2015-07-06_ZF_gaps

You could get lucky and catch the right direction or you could find your trading account severely diminished one morning. To see the five year bonds paint such gaps is certainly disconcerting – especially if you understand how damn huge the bond market is (almost twice that of all equities combined). Gaps like that cost a lot of people a lot of money…

2015-07-06_AUDUS_briefing

Of course there are still charts out there which seem to benefit from the overall increase in volatility but aren’t flagging alert signals. The AUD/USD did a bit of gapping down but makes for a decent short term long this morning. However I’ll be pretty nimble here in the coming days – meaning small position sizing and being quick to take profits.

2015-07-06_soybean_briefing

Soybeans on a rampage – we did ride some of that beautiful advance recently. After an obligatory 3.0+ standard deviation reversion it may be ready to continue its way higher. I’m long 1/2R here with a stop below 1016. However I’m only playing half an R because…

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2015-07-06_soybean_meal_briefing

… I also like soybean meal. It’s facing an hourly NLBL plus its 100-hour SMA. No guarantee for a low but as good a chance as any we’ll get technically speaking. So I’m long another 1/2R with a stop below 342.

2015-07-06_natgas_briefing

Natgas – it’s always been a volatile bitch but compared with equities it seems almost serene these days. At least we’re seeing clear trading ranges and it seems to be observing LT support levels. Which is why I’m trying 1/2R long here with a stop below 2.73.

2015-07-06_AUDNZD_briefing

AUD/NZD is my final victim for now – I like the combination of the daily and hourly charts. However I could be a bit early here so I’m only taking 1/2R. I would try again with a full position if it drops lower and kisses its 25-day SMA.

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That ought to keep you guys entertained for a while. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

Threshold Tuesday Morning

The getting is good this morning as the spoos have once more descended toward their bearish inflection point. From there we’re gotten a little bounce which means we are long now with a stop below the NLSL shown below:

2015-06-16_spoos_briefing

This is a textbook entry guys and I’m taking it now. Our inflection point is 2062.5 – a slicde below does not guarantee it’s falling off the plates but at some point the gist will be up. Meaning I will take the risk of being whipsawed given the downside potential. A lot of pent up momentum and frustration has accumulated over the past three months. The final release will be glorious.

Translation: Long right now with a stop below 2062.5. Short below 2062.5 with a stop above the 25-hour SMA.

2015-06-16_AUDUSD_briefing

The AUD/USD is in shake out mode but has accumulated a lot of support below on the daily panel. Looks like a decent long here near the 100-hour SMA – I’m putting my stop below 0.77.


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,




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