Bait And Switch Tuesday

Guys – don’t let this happen to you! If you’ve been trading equities for more than a few months then you probably have seen the following play out: Equities are dropping near the open, everything is screaming sell. Suddenly there’s a spike to the upside which triggers more bids and results in a short squeeze continuing most of the session. So how to keep from getting screwed like this and in many other ways on a recurring basis?

2015-04-14_zero

Simple! Sign up for the Zero which shows you real participation on a 5-minute basis. What you are looking at above is a textbook bullish divergence on the Zero Lite during the quick drop post NYSE open. May I also add that yesterday’s sell off had very little juice as evidenced by the tiny signal range accompanying it. That’s not always a sure sign of a bear trap but it bodes paying attention the following day near the open.

What worries me more however is the ‘heartbeat’ like signal on the hourly Zero (left panel). I have seen this a few weeks ago and it preceded a shake out a few days after. Which brings me to the next chart:

2015-04-14_spoos_entry

The E-Mini is continuing to flesh out a sideways wedge of some sort and I have a hard time justifying entries anywhere except near the extremes. However, that said – the hourly is looking good and I just added 1/4R with a stop below 2084.25 (VWAP). Low odds on this one succeeding however, you have been warned.

2015-04-14_NQ_update

My NQ campaign met Sir Gregor Clegane today who made quick business out of my long positions by chopping them into pieces. Not a big deal as they were nicely in profit but a shame nevertheless given the jump higher.

2015-04-14_sugar_update

Updates updates – Sugar looking good but I’m moving my stop to break/even as I don’t trust a concerted number of pull backs all across the futures and forex.

2015-04-14_coffee_update

Coffee – always suspected this one may be a trap and I closed it out near break/even. This one just doesn’t have the mojo and I’m too correlated with all the other open futures positions already.

2015-04-14_copper_update

Copper – looked so juicy and then pulled back. Still like this one but I’m moving my stop to break/even as well.

2015-04-14_silver_update

Silver – also moving my stop to break/even. Not a definite rule in my systems but when it happens across the board I think it’s more than justifiable, especially given my current exposure. So let’s see how many of them survive the night and into tomorrow – if they hold below I think we may have real runner potential as this was quite a shake out today.

2015-04-14_CL_update

Crude – I bet you all forgot about this one already! I took a second long position on the 9th and so far it’s remained in play courtesy of my more conservative stop below the 50 mark. It’s finally tickling the 100-day SMA now and perhaps it’ll muster up enough mojo to finally break free. Anyway, keeping my stop below the 50 mark as I’ve been waiting for this one to play out a while now.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Futures Setups Galore

After a fake out spike higher in the morning the day did indeed turn into a shake out session. I’m not seeing much participation here yet, so let’s see what the close looks like. Definite possibility they’ll drive a bit lower but for now there’s little to do for us:

2015-04-13_spoos_update

As you can see we’re kind of dangling in the midst of it all – if the 25-hour BB doesn’t contain this push lower then we’ll most likely revisit the 100-hour near 2080. On the daily panel we have zero context, therefore I’ll stick with the hourly. FYI – my trailing stop on the NQ has also been advanced below the 100-hour SMA.

2015-04-13_soybeans_setup

The title of this post promises futures setups and yes – there quite a few juicy ones today. Soybeans sporting a shooting star and I want to be short below it with a stop above today’s highs. Long if we trigger today’s highs – as you may guess my stop would be below today’s lows. Boilerplate inside day slash shooting star setup. FYI – I do like the context on the daily panel as everything is starting to point down now, including the 100-day BBs.

FYI – if the long side triggers I’ll take profits rather quickly – for me that would be 970.

2015-04-13_copper_setup

Copper – that one has got a SS sitting on top of two converging daily SMA – cannot resist this setup and I’m playing it just like soybeans.

More futures setups waiting below the fold:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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Hope that keeps you guys busy for a while. Have fun but keep it frosty.

Cheers,

The Eagle Has Landed

My apologies for the late post today – it took me a while to get set up this morning as the storage place with all my equipment is all the way out in Los Feliz. And half way there I realized that we idiots had forgotten the key for the padlock, which added another 30 minutes to the trip. But I’m all set up now with my gorgeous Apple Cinema display and a surprisingly fast Internet connection. As you recall I already shifted my circadian rhythm over the past week and in general it feels like I never left Los Angeles. It’s amazing how quickly the brain re-adjusts to a familiar environment. Before you know it you’re cruising all over L.A., cursing at slow drivers of a certain ethnic group, A/C and stereo cranked up, sending hapless pedestrians diving for the sidewalk. You know – Los Angelino style :-)

LA_March_sunset_1

Here’s a snapshot I took last night here in Hollywood on Beverly right at the tail end of a gorgeous sunset. Today’s going to be hot – somewhere around 89 and it’ll breach the 90 mark tomorrow. I love the dry heat here and couldn’t be happier.

2015-03-12_UVOL_DVOL

Alright, let’s talk markets. As Scott pointed out – accumulation was in the works yesterday as evidenced by the NYSE UVOL/DVOL ratio. Buying pressure was solid and constant all the way into the close.

2015-03-12_zero

The Zero painted a pretty pronounced divergence on the hourly panel yesterday. Today’s session however (and yesterday) was driven by minimal momentum/participation suggesting prop desks and bots were running this.

2015-03-12_SPX_VIX

On the SPX/VIX panel the ratio is leading pure price and I think this could easily squeeze higher.

2015-03-12_spoos_update

So let’s look at the daily E-Mini which bounced at the 100-day SMA and the lower 25-day BB. The latter was actually the one which has been observed in recent history and the two together offered a nice opportunity for the bulls. Had I posted yesterday I would (like Scott) suggested to lighten up your short exposure here.

2015-03-12_LT_spoos_update

Long term we also had the 25-week SMA and a NLSL at 2036.5 – both of which I pointed out on Tuesday.

2015-03-12_NQ_update

The NQ is lagging the spoos which is interesting as it’s been the more bullish index recently. As you can see the weekly NLBL at 4286.25 has held up nicely so far.

2015-03-12_silver_setup

Alright, let’s talk setups – we have beautiful ones on our roster today. Here’s silver which I love short here until 15.565 where I’ll be long 1/2R, adding another 1/2R above 15.66. Frankly I would be happy either way – short or long and I have no directional bias.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs – please step into my Californian holiday lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

That’s it – see you guys tomorrow. FYI – while I’m here on the West Coast for the coming three weeks I will most likely post only once a day. Unless I fall out of bed very early – meaning near 6:00am. And that frankly happens rarely ;-)

Cheers,




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  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Chasing The Market’s Tail
    2. Still In The Game
    3. Nothing Thursday
    4. Well I’ll Be Damned!
    5. Wednesday Morning Briefing
    6. Bait And Switch Tuesday
    7. Futures Setups Galore
    8. Monday Morning Briefing
    9. Go Gadget Go!
    10. Friday Morning Briefing