Getting Paid On Thursday

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2014-10-30_spoos_briefing

Equities have dropped a little lower overnight and we’re now testing the 100-hour SMA. If I wasn’t long already in my ongoing campaign I would be here with a stop below ~1958. If supports fails then the next probable scenario is a visit of the lower 100-hour BB which coincides with NLSL at 1944.5.

2014-10-30_spoos_briefing2

Here’s another view at the scenario on the hourly panel – the onus is now on the bulls to keep up the pace or we run the risk of a little correction.

2014-10-30_platinum_profits

Platinum was one of our short setups from last night and it’s been very favorable so far. Time to move your stop to b/e and to take 50% off the table.

2014-10-30_silver_profits

Silver was the second one and here I’m moving my stop to 1.2R and also take 50% off the table. After such a drop odds are we’re going to see a little counter response.

2014-10-30_AUDNZD_setup

My only setup this morning so I’ll throw it out for free – AUD/NZD. Possible buy here at the NLSL with a stop pretty nearby below 1.124 (the rising SMA). Time for this one to get a move on, so I’ll give it three candles or so and if she doesn’t budge I’m out.

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Cheers,

RIPQE

Here lies the charred remains of Quantitive Easing – Time Of Death: 2pm October 29th, 2014. May you rest in piece – it’s been fun. The market is now officially on QE cold turkey (just in time for Halloween I may add). So when are they announcing QE4?  Just kidding!

Well, the good news: the Dollar is up and the Euro continues to drop as I’m typing this. Which of course serves this expat just fine. Alright – let’s review the damage, shall we?

2014-10-29_GC_update

Big FAIL on the gold front – it never even had a chance of touching that NLBL on the daily. The weekly appears to be a goner as well. Next target is the weekly NLSL at 1183.3.

2014-10-29_EURUSD_update

The Euro – ouch, that is one ugly chart. Technically we have now established a falling diagonal which should act as resistance on the next bounce. What doesn’t help the Euro’s case is that it just sliced through that daily NLSL as well.

2014-10-29_DX_update

Obviously the inverse on the Dollar front – if you squint you can make out the finger of God on the hourly panel. On the daily we also now established a rising diagonal and it just crushed a NLSL which should not start acting as support. Very nice and a breach of the old highs are now a possibility.

2014-10-29_SPX_update

Equities – actually thus far they’ve been holding up pretty well! I don’t see anything nasty here and my long positions remain in good shape. Nothing to add really – let’s see how we close the week. But this is pretty positive.

A few setups while I have your attention – please step into my lair:


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Cheers,

Major Technical Damage

Wednesday near the close of the U.S. session I really thought the ole’ Yeller had us all by the balls. If there has ever been an opportunity to squeeze the bears into oblivion then this had to be it. In yesterday’s musings Scott confirmed my notion that the series of lower lows and lower highs was still intact (barely) and that the bearish case was on the edge of extinction but still had a small chance of resuming. The odds were pretty minuscule IMO and early yesterday I kept checking the tape waiting for the invariable second shoe to drop.

But then suddenly something very curious happened:

In the last 20 minutes, someone has placed/canceled a 666 contract order in eMini 26 times $ES_F

— Eric Scott Hunsader (@nanexllc) October 9, 2014

Someone at Nanex reported a surge of selling orders (yes, I did find it on ZeroEdge – bite me) and the tape suddenly caved in as all of the other bots followed suit. And the world for the bulls will not be the same again – at least for a while, most likely not for the remainder of this quarter.

2014-10-10_spoos_volume_profile

Unless – yes unless we see an immediate surge right here TODAY the bulls will be toast for a while. I’m not saying we drop like a rock from here – there will be bounces. But in order to wipe a major stain off the bullish case immediate action is needed.

2014-10-10_spoos_overview

For we are about to paint an official double sell signal on the weekly E-Mini (and the SPX cash as well). We have a breach of the 25-week SMA as well as a breach of a weekly Net-Line Sell Level. That is bad medicine for the bears and today is the day to somehow make it all go away. In order to accomplish that feat a push above 1950 will be needed – 1960 would be better as that’s where we find the 100-day SMA right now. Bear in mind that both the 25-day and 100-day SMA held up for the fourth time now – that in itself is enough to cast some serious doubt as to whether the bulls are still in charge here.

2014-10-10_VXV_VIX

Not to count out any last minute Fed-sponsored Hail Mary’s but market makers seem to be agreeing with me that trouble looms ahead. Here’s the VXV:VIX ratio and it’s pointing straight down. I would keep an eye on this one today for early signs of divergences – also mind the VIX:VXO chart on the short term side.

2014-10-10_spoos_correlation

Our GBP/JPY equities correlation (based on carry trade activity) is also pointing in the same direction.

2011-06-05_AVG_seasonality

Now someone in the comment section pointed toward the final quarter as being a traditionally bullish period. And yes, he was absolutely spot on about that – that’s usually where the bulls rule the day.

S&P_percent_positive_monthly

And we may still see that happen but let’s look at October specifically. Contrary to common believe it’s actually a very bullish month – the numbers do not lie. But that’s not the whole picture – because it just so happens to have a little SKEW problem…


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Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,




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    1. Happy Halloween!
    2. Wrapping Up The Month
    3. Getting Paid On Thursday
    4. RIPQE
    5. Strike The Iron While It’s Hot
    6. Don’t Be Afraid Of The Boogeyman
    7. Kitchen Sink Monday
    8. Quiet Friday Morning Briefing
    9. Thursday Morning Briefing
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