Furious And Furious Friday

We got movement people! And obviously I’m not talking about equities where we’re still spasmodically bouncing around in the same six month trading range. Booooring! Unless of course you are the evil lair’s official Swing Slayer and that coveted title is already taken by Skynard. You will have to defeat him first and then send me one of his digits to assume his position. It also helps if you either have at least one dragon or an army of White Walkers at your disposal. Either that or just send me money – I am surprisingly corruptible.

2015-06-26_spoos_briefing

Okay, let’s get the tedious charts out of the way first. Equities – I’m risking a tiny long position if it touches 2095 with a stop below 2090.

2015-06-26_ZL_update

Alright so I was talking about movement, remember? Plenty of that across the softs in recent days (i.e. corn, soy, wheat, etc.) – you guys really need to get yourself some futures accounts. Speaking of which, do you still remember the soybean diet I pimped the other day? Soybean oil has advanced beautifully and I’m now putting my stop below a recent spike low. I think that one has potential to go all the way.

2015-06-26_soybeans_update

On the actual soybeans contract it’s time to head for the hills after a beautiful stab higher. Sure it could push even further but my target has been hit and that’s that. I’ll keep an eye on it however for new entry opportunities – preferably after a little shake out.

2015-06-26_GBPCAD_briefing_leeches

GBPCAD – fascinating formation on the daily – rarely seen anything like that on the forex side. I’m happy to play the swings here just for fun but I reckon that it’ll be ready to pick a direction early next week. Be careful usually you’ll see a fake breach first – if you are really good at this game then you can try to play the fake breach with an inverse position. Paging Skynard the Swing Slayer!


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. If there’s anything interesting to share (and if I see you guys actually showing up – I know it’s summer… yuk) then I’ll see you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

My New Soy Based Diet

I switched to a soybean based diet this morning when I posted not one but two pertinent setups. The soybean oil futures for you lowly leeches and the actual soybean futures for my subs – of course the latter was my all time favorite and it’s been rocking and rolling since my entry.

2015-06-22_ZL_update

The former is looking good though and I’ve now moved my stop to break/even now. We initially pushed up nicely but that daily NLBL at 33.3 had to spoil the party. Clearly this is where we should expect resistance going forward.

2015-06-22_soybeans_update

And here’s the actual soybeans contract – brilliant entry and thus far our nefarious plan is proceeding like clockwork. Evil is as evil does…. anyway, I’m moved my stop to break/even here as well. Nothing but air above and with a bit of luck and scotch tape we may just take the express elevator to the 1k mark :-)

2015-06-22_EURGBP_setup

EUR/GBP is looking like a nice long but DarthMole tells me that volatility is just about to run out of juice here. So I suggest you wait a few hours and then look for a long entry near the 100-hour SMA and that stack of Net-Lines.

Of course there’s more – I like to spoil my subs. And there’s a EUR pair I like even better today. Please meet me in the lair:


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Scalpius Update

On a sidenote – I was chatting with Mugabe in the comment section about Scalpius’ win/loss rate when suddenly something occurred to me. The system was build on top of CI legacy code and that one was taking break/even two pips behind the actual entry point. Which means that you’d count it as a small loss and given a lot of opportunity those pips may just add up.

EURUSD_A

So I changed that to one pip in front of the break/even spot and that completely changed everything. Here’s the original ruleset with the new break/even spot running against the EUR/USD. I call it Scalpius A. The P&L is almost identical but look at the win/loss rate! We went from 1:2.2 to 1:1.09. That is a system I would happily trade with 1% R sizes.

USDJPY_A

Here’s Scalpius A against the USD/JPY. 180R with the exactly same win/loss rate – that’s uncanny.

EURUSD_AB

Since this morning I developed a slightly enhanced ruleset which I call Scalpius AB. That one is a bit busier and as you can see the EUR/USD is now showing a much more subtle drawdown period. However the W/L rate and the expectancy suffered a little. I think I would stick with system A on this one.

USDJPY_AB

Here’s the same Scalpius AB ruleset on the USD/JPY – my jaw dropped when I saw this one. Again we have a win/loss ratio of 1:1.09. But we would have banked 280R in three years. The SQN number is bullpucky – I need the formula for SQN100 – anyone?

I’ll keep plugging on this – extremely excited about it as you can imagine.

Cheers,

Glorious Monday Morning Briefing

I had a kick ass weekend…. working! Yeah, I know – I was supposed to be kicking it at the beach but got sucked into the matrix working on my dragon slayer of a swing trading system. Documented everything for acid/sanity testing done by Scott, my brother from another mother. He may be follicle challenged but what lurks behind his rough facade is a kick ass systematic trader who rarely misses anything. In fact he helped me uncover a little bug in the backtester last week which sent me into a psychological tailspin but which in the end proved to be very positive and led to a solid system we’ll be trading starting this week. Seems like Scalpius (which is what I’m calling it) works best on the three major Forex pairs – USDJPY, EURUSD, and GBPUSD.

2015-06-21_1817

This is what I tested over the weekend between April 2012 and last Friday. Since then I have actually been able to improve the ruleset but I won’t post that P&L graph as it’s simply ridiculous. Small but very consistent edge – just keeps on churning day after day. Anyway, I’m very excited to start trading this one internally. My biggest thanks go out to Mrs. Evil who is the most stunning and gracious wife anyone could ever ask for, but also the most patient and understanding – in good as well as bad times. Of course she’s lucky to have me – heheheheee ;-)

2015-06-22_spoos_briefing

Good entry opportunity right now on the spoos. I’m already long but if you are not you should wait for a little drop lower. The rising 100-hour should offer sufficient support at this point – although in this market environment there is no telling which way it’ll swing. So far we’ve been doing well staying ahead of the tape – hopefully as long as we don’t get married to a particular direction our streak will continue.

2015-06-22_soybean_oil

Soybean oil is my second favorite setup this morning. I’m long with a stop below 32.33 – it seems like that one has painted a medium term low and is ready to bust higher. I would however have preferred a touch of the 100-day SMA. But perhaps that’s the trap – staying shy of that and reversing then with an empty bus.

Now you may wonder what my favorite setup is then – please step into my lair:


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2015-06-22_events

A bit of event risk today around 1:00pm Eastern as we’ve got a meeting of all the big finance honchos over here in Europe, deciding the future of us Euro-trash worker bees. I can tell you right now what they’ll brew up – more coin/bailouts for their cronies whilst socializing the losses onto the hapless public. You got to appreciate the level of sophistication with which they are screwing us. There’s a great popular saying over here in Spain:

230313-Asensio

Loose translation: They piss at us from above and tell us it’s raining.

Cheers,




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