Guys – don’t let this happen to you! If you’ve been trading equities for more than a few months then you probably have seen the following play out: Equities are dropping near the open, everything is screaming sell. Suddenly there’s a spike to the upside which triggers more bids and results in a short squeeze continuing most of the session. So how to keep from getting screwed like this and in many other ways on a recurring basis?
Simple! Sign up for the Zero which shows you real participation on a 5-minute basis. What you are looking at above is a textbook bullish divergence on the Zero Lite during the quick drop post NYSE open. May I also add that yesterday’s sell off had very little juice as evidenced by the tiny signal range accompanying it. That’s not always a sure sign of a bear trap but it bodes paying attention the following day near the open.
What worries me more however is the ‘heartbeat’ like signal on the hourly Zero (left panel). I have seen this a few weeks ago and it preceded a shake out a few days after. Which brings me to the next chart:
The E-Mini is continuing to flesh out a sideways wedge of some sort and I have a hard time justifying entries anywhere except near the extremes. However, that said – the hourly is looking good and I just added 1/4R with a stop below 2084.25 (VWAP). Low odds on this one succeeding however, you have been warned.
My NQ campaign met Sir Gregor Clegane today who made quick business out of my long positions by chopping them into pieces. Not a big deal as they were nicely in profit but a shame nevertheless given the jump higher.
Updates updates – Sugar looking good but I’m moving my stop to break/even as I don’t trust a concerted number of pull backs all across the futures and forex.
Coffee – always suspected this one may be a trap and I closed it out near break/even. This one just doesn’t have the mojo and I’m too correlated with all the other open futures positions already.
Copper – looked so juicy and then pulled back. Still like this one but I’m moving my stop to break/even as well.
Silver – also moving my stop to break/even. Not a definite rule in my systems but when it happens across the board I think it’s more than justifiable, especially given my current exposure. So let’s see how many of them survive the night and into tomorrow – if they hold below I think we may have real runner potential as this was quite a shake out today.
Crude – I bet you all forgot about this one already! I took a second long position on the 9th and so far it’s remained in play courtesy of my more conservative stop below the 50 mark. It’s finally tickling the 100-day SMA now and perhaps it’ll muster up enough mojo to finally break free. Anyway, keeping my stop below the 50 mark as I’ve been waiting for this one to play out a while now.
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After a fake out spike higher in the morning the day did indeed turn into a shake out session. I’m not seeing much participation here yet, so let’s see what the close looks like. Definite possibility they’ll drive a bit lower but for now there’s little to do for us:
As you can see we’re kind of dangling in the midst of it all – if the 25-hour BB doesn’t contain this push lower then we’ll most likely revisit the 100-hour near 2080. On the daily panel we have zero context, therefore I’ll stick with the hourly. FYI – my trailing stop on the NQ has also been advanced below the 100-hour SMA.
The title of this post promises futures setups and yes – there quite a few juicy ones today. Soybeans sporting a shooting star and I want to be short below it with a stop above today’s highs. Long if we trigger today’s highs – as you may guess my stop would be below today’s lows. Boilerplate inside day slash shooting star setup. FYI – I do like the context on the daily panel as everything is starting to point down now, including the 100-day BBs.
FYI – if the long side triggers I’ll take profits rather quickly – for me that would be 970.
Copper – that one has got a SS sitting on top of two converging daily SMA – cannot resist this setup and I’m playing it just like soybeans.
More futures setups waiting below the fold:
More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!
Hope that keeps you guys busy for a while. Have fun but keep it frosty.
The comment section has gone into flatline mode so I must assume that many of you guys are enjoying an extended weekend. Well, the market waits for no man (or woman) – since it’s only the hardcore crew I’ll be brief but I will make it count as we have nice setups today:
So I told you guys to short near 2010 and judging by the thundering silence none of you rats did. A bit frustrating, but not for yours truly as I pocketed some green on the way down. I can tell you where the good spots are but if you guys don’t pull the trigger – well, refer to my comment in the intro.
Now what does this chart above tell us? Quite a bit of short term price volatility there – it’s been going on for a week now. Where does this sort of thing (sideways/volatile) usually happen? That’s right – before big moves. Again, direction is unclear but the more time we spend here the greater the chance we’ll actually get a good entry. FYI – I have no directional bias.
Before we get to the setups. The Zero indicator did a bang job again today – very nice divergence near the lows – just like yesterday. If you are a sub and didn’t play those then please proceed directly to the tutorial page for a refresher.
Seems like that speculative gold entry yesterday (sorry – subs only) may just have a leg to stand on. I also like the proximity of the 25-week Bollinger (a touch would have been better). Best we can do right now is to leave our stop below 1260 and forget about it for a few days.
While we’re in the precious metals aisle – I’m long platinum on a breach of that hammer. I think Scott would actually like this one, hammers and shooting stars are his new thing (with a few additional rules thrown into the mix). Anyway stop below today’s lows – or you can put it below the 100day BB nearby.
Sugar is looking sweet again – may just be able to muster up the mojo for a bounce. Long here with a stop just a few ticks below (i.e. < 15.5). A bit speculative – you may reduce R size to 0.5.
AUD/USD – nice reversal – I want to be long above the NLBL on the daily. FWIW – beautiful BB compression on the weekly. I think we may just see some movement here into fall.
USD/CAD back near the 100-day SMA – it’s now or never. If it fails it then we’re pretty going to see a more complex correction – the easy path is to bounce here and take off. Decent probability and I’m in with 1R – stop a respectable distance below the 100-day as shown on the chart.
It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.