FOMC Wednesday

Rejoice ladies and leeches – it’s that time of the month – FOMC Wednesday is upon us again. Which is our collective cue to hunker down and wait for the obligatory wave of volatility to wash over us. I swear, every time I see that one on tomorrow’s event roster my eyes glaze over.

2015-08-19_FOMC_wednesday

So let’s cut through the crap, shall we? I’ll be happy to tell you in advance what’s going to happen. Yellen is going to deliver her usual litany of reasons for not raising interest rates (namely a shitty economy based on cooked books, fudged numbers, and of course low employment participation) whilst continuing to dangle the magic hike carrot in the ‘not so distant future’ – but just out of reach enough to keep everyone guessing. The usual suspects paid to interpret the tea leafs are going to make sure to dissect every single word carefully and we may see a few wild swings across forex and equities (although those have been a lot more mild lately) while that’s going on. There you go – now you can move on with your day! :-)

Not that it really matters as I don’t see much on the radar today I would touch with a ten foot pole. Nasty tape lately and my patience is wearing pretty damn thin. I’m sure you can empathize, unless you were on vacation in which case congrats you bastard – you didn’t miss a damn thing.

2015-08-19_sugar_update

The one exception to all the market misery has been the one symbol I posted for the subs the other day. Sugar really sweetened my day as it finally got my memo and jumped higher during yesterday’s session. It has come down a bit since then but this is definitely a good start. It took me two attempts to get in there and I’m moving my stop a bit above break/even near the 100-hour SMA. This one could turn into a runner but and under normal conditions I would give it an 80% chance to advance higher. But these are not ‘normal conditions’ are they – which is why I have reduced my position sizing to 0.5R max per uncorrelated symbol.


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See you guys later this afternoon after the Yellinator.

Cheers,

There Is No Butter In Summer Opex Hell

It’s OPEX week and clearly that is not helping what is already a sideways low participation high volatility summer tape from hell. So let’s treat carefully and pick our victims extra carefully.

That’s right, there is no butter in hell. So don’t try to be smart and play the swings here – you will be stomped on.

2015-08-18_spoos_briefing

Case in point: You may recall the NLBL on the daily E-Mini chart I posted yesterday. After breaching the diagonal this is where the boys were to be separated from the men. A breach higher would have put us on the path to taking another whack at the 2120 mark. But as many times over the past few weeks participation died off instantly and profit taking continued overnight. There may be another long opportunity (i.e. LKGB) near the 100-day SMA but we’d have to judge participation there. Which means – watch the Zero today like a hawk.

2015-08-18_bonds_update

My bond campaign has been taken to the woodshed and I’m out at break/even. Waiting for new instructions here – we may correct quite a bit lower and that will be a great spot to get positioned.

2015-08-18_sugar_briefing

Sugar stopped me out at ISL overnight but it’s still moving in the right direction. So I’m back in LONG but this time with a stop below that recent FU spike low near 10.5.

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Cheers,

No Market For the Meek

And the fuckery continues. My apologies in advance for my crude language; but I think it does reflect the general sentiment among market participants these days. It hadn’t exactly been a fun year thus far to begin with – we have seen massive distribution across the front. Just when we thought that equities may pick a direction again we dropped into the summer tape, which has put us through a sideways ordeal of non-directional whipsaw. Even during the best of times it is tough to maintain a consistent edge as a trader – many have tried and very few manage to pull it off in the end. In market conditions like these however I guarantee you that even the pros are sweating. So treat carefully my dear steel rats – if you managed to not lose money in this market then you are a rock star.

2015-08-17_spoos_update

It all started out beautifully on the E-Mini this morning. I snagged my entry and we dropped quickly until short term support near 2075 produced a rapid snap back and then some. Fortunately my system rules dictated to move my stop to break/even after 1.2R. I almost got to move my stop lower at 2R but the snapback was too fast.

So I flipped for a long position at my stop and am about to take partial profits. Technically speaking we are at an interesting junction here. I mentioned this morning that another FU spike higher was a possibility and this is around the point where the advance dies in its cradle or picks up some momentum. Anyway, I only have a tiny chihuahua in this fight – like most of you I’m mentally checked out of equities at this point. One of these days it’ll pick a direction – until it does I’m playing equities with petty cash.

2015-08-17_ZB_update

Bonds however have played it by the script so far. Textbook entry and I’m moving my stop to break/even. Just look at the daily panel – now this is some tape I can sink my rat teeth into!

More below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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