Sitting On The Edge

Equities are at an inflection point – yes, we are pushing into new territory but due to a shallow correction yesterday we may not be ready to start another squeeze. I’m still holding the long positions I grabbed this morning and my stop remains at 2008.5 which means I was one tick away from being touched.

2014-11-05_spoos_volume_profile

The E-Mini volume profile chart shows us what we’re up against – we are heading into uncharted territory and I think a more thorough correction is needed to kick this thing higher into the Santa season. Either way, I’m still holding my longs I grabbed at 1872. My current stop is at the 2nd nearest spike low at 1960. I am considering to shed 20% if we drop through the previous one at 1995.

2014-11-05_SPX_update

The hourly SPX panel shows us a very solid 25-hour SMA which however is starting to lose momentum. So the situation here is pretty clear. The bulls need to start running or face a more thorough correction, perhaps all teh way toward 1962 where we find the 100-hour SMA (see, there IS method to my madness).

2014-11-05_VIX_SPX

The VIX is slightly elevated as you can see from the ratio I’m plotting below the SPX here. So I think market makers are expecting a correction here as well. Strangely thus far nothing has yet materialized.

2014-11-05_GBPJPY_update

Update on the GBP/JPY setup from last night – see what I meant by not having a directional bias? Who looked at that chart yesterday and would have considered a LONG entry? Perhaps 1% of all traders – that’s how many. Well we did and my recommendation is to move your stop to b/e – you are now sitting pretty. I can’t promise that this squeeze will continue but the die has been cast and now we wait. By the way GBP/USD worked fantastically for a few hours but then somehow ran back to our entry – I recommend an exit on that one.

2014-11-05_AUDCAD_update

AUD/CAD – I was whipsawed there this morning but got above 0.9905 – taking profits now which earned me a bit over 1R considering the 1/2R I lost being long first.

2014-11-05_crude_update

Crude – perfect entry here this morning and we are now uniquely positioned for continuation higher. Again, no guarantees but move your stop to break/even and then sacrifice a medium rare beef burger to appease our overlords at the firm whose name must not be spoken.

Only one measly setup this evening and I’m keeping it for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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Cheers,

Falling Swords

The best advice I can offer you guys right now is to not resort to guesswork when it comes to when we’ll see a low. We are sailing in dangerous waters and if you’re not already short then simply wait it out – get used to the idea that you missed the boat. Anything can happen down here and it will!

2014-10-15_1412

Most importantly don’t fall prey to mental masturbation such as this. So it’s Ebola that’s bringing down the market now? Is that a fact? It couldn’t possibly have anything to do with the fact that the Fed’s money pump is slowly drying up? Or that we’ve been in a raging bull market for five years and counting which is begging for a correction?

It’s strange how the financial media continues to draw correlations between events and market cycles, even if they are disproven over and over again. And even IF those events were the actual cause – it’s useless to follow them as there is no chance of exploiting the information. How many people went long crude thinking that Russian supply disruptions in Europe would swing prices higher? And how exactly has that been working out for you?

Forget about the news – just follow the charts – they tell us all we need to know.

2014-10-15_sppos_briefing

Or NOT. If you recall my write up on market periods – we are in the midst of a rocket right now and there’s no telling when it’ll end. The wave wankers have tried over and over to employ all kinds of measures to project when a ‘third wave’ may end. The last time I tried that was in early 2009 when everyone was looking far below 666 based on their careful counts.

2014-10-15_spoos_volume_profile

The simple truth is that you’ll never know until after the fact – so stop trying to guess. Don’t think you are smarter than the millions of participants who are looking at the very same chart right now. We may bounce here today and hold the 25-week BB, or we could drop like a rock here and not stop until near 1700. I don’t know – but one think I do know for sure:

Never ever attempt to step underneath a falling sword.

2014-10-15_VIX_VXO

The one chart that’s been a thorn in my eye is this one – the VIX:VXO. It keeps pointing up and I really don’t know why. But we are in rough waters as I said and perhaps whoever is pricing those ATM options is tripping over their own hubris. Or they know something I don’t. Whatever it is – when things don’t make sense then you simply wait it out. We’ve done well this year – no sense in getting caught up in all the excitement (i.e. panic) and resort to forcing the issue. That rarely results in profitable trades.

2014-10-15_gold_briefing

Gold is looking pretty interesting right now as it’s fighting to overcome triple resistance. My current entry is betting that it’s going to fail but a few ticks higher above 1230 I’ll be long. Dynamics can shift quickly here and this is an important inflection point – which makes for good entries.

A few more ST charts below the fold:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2014-09-25_spoos_briefing

Equities are still nibbling on their hourly inflection point – overnight the formation has actually improved from a technical perspective as the 25-hour 100 has caught up with the 100. So in a nutshell – be long ES above 1992 – anything below is whipsaw territory.

2014-09-25_USDTRY_briefing

USD/TRY – a setup that the subs and I had our eye on. It triggered late last night and we’re off to the races! Already banked us 1R and our stop loss now moves to the break even point. Aaah – why can’t it be always that smooth? ;-)

More short term setups are awaiting you below the fold:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

coding-powers

See you guys later – I have some important coding duties to return to.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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