Friday Conundrum

A bit of a surprise seeing equities heading straight back down as I was expecting a more thorough bounce yesterday. Quite fortuitously I didn’t take partial profits, as I would have under normal conditions, plain reason being that I was getting set up over here and simply didn’t have the time. Right now my shorts are flashing green and it’s turning into a very profitable Friday afternoon. Moral of the story – better to be lucky than good ;-)

2015-03-13_spoos_update

So let’s take stock of where we are and where we may be heading. This is what I would call a veritable Friday conundrum. The triptych E-Mini panel shows us right at a daily and weekly inflection point where we bounced yesterday. Below ES 2032 we are at risk of descending lower toward the 2k mark and then 1982 at which point we’ll be dancing to Huey Lewis and the News again.

2015-03-13_zero

The Zero is showing us real participation today (to the downside) but it’s flattening out a little there toward the end. I think we need to see wait out the close for some possible late session hits. However it’s not unusual to see selling pressure abate a little if the first part of the day has been leading down.

2015-03-13_VXV_VIX

Just to be on the safe side I caught up with some of my breadth indicators. No sign of divergences on the VXV:VIX ratio.

2015-03-13_VIX_VXO

Ditto on the more short term VIX:VOX – this is where I would expect to see the first signs of attempting to trap shorts.

Bottom Line: I am going to do here right now what I would have done yesterday – take partial profits, but leave the door open for continuation lower starting Sunday night. This is how I always would proceed and after banking quite a bit more than 4R (remember I got in at 2103)  it is more than justified and well within my discretionary campaign rules. I won’t pollute the process by attempting to predict where we head next – major inflection points are often touched just before the weekend and for a reason. There is no way knowing whether or not ‘this is it’ (only Huey knows). Let your system rules guide your actions – not your bias, wishful thinking, or various other emotions that stand in the way of banking profits.

On the setup side we do have a two juicy candidates on the futures side:


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I leave you with this - which may become our Monday theme if things play in our favor ;-)

Cheers,

Awesome Thursday Morning Briefing

I’m in a brilliant mood this morning. We’re finally past this month’s Fed/ECB madness, many of the futures contracts have rolled over, there are setups galore, and I woke up to a warm and sunny spring morning with about 25 Celsius (77 Fahrenheit) around noon. Oh, and I almost forgot – the EUR/USD just fell off the plate – heheheheeee. Love and money is in the air!

2015-02-26_spoos_briefing

The spoos are flailing sideways below that NLBL at 2114.5 – isn’t it nice how those serve as support/resistance over and over again? Which is why I use them religiously for my discretionary trading. Anyway, I’ll be long above the Net-Line with a stop below 2112. However, the better setup this morning is on the NQ and that one I keep for my intrepid subs – sorry leeches!

2015-02-26_gold_briefing

Gold – also testing a NLBL and I want to be long above it – stop would be below 1214. I very much like the daily context here – very much actually. But not as much as I like it on another precious metal chart – again that one I keep for my subs.

2015-02-26_ZN_briefing

ZN futures – 10-year treasury bonds – I was about to enter here but then I saw a very quick drop lower. Which means now I’ll wait for a pop back above 128’260 after which I’m long with a stop below 120’180. I just looked at it and the odds for a push higher are low here – but if it happens I’ll take it for sure.


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Here’s a little goodie to wake you up:

I am on fire today – let’s have some fun people. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

Busy Tuesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2015-02-10_spoos_briefing

It seems ES 2040 is now established as a short term support zone and we should use it if there’s a retest today. Thor actually went long the NQ this morning and although I’m a bit worried about the small candle range (stop below yesterday’s low at 4201.25) it’s looking okay right now.

2015-02-10_AUDJPY_briefing

We have a ton of futures setups this morning – AUD/JPY is our only one in forex. Frankly I love this one as it has excellent context on the daily panel. Long here above the NLBL with a stop below 92.4, or below 92.2 if you want to play it more conservatively.

2015-02-10_platinum_briefing

On to the futures – platinum looks like a good short here with a stop above 1220. Above it I want to be long with a stop below 1217.


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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