Chop Chop Til You Drop

I’ve had a mini epiphany today just browsing through my universe of charts across bonds, equities, the futures, and even forex. In plain simple words – we are in the midst of a high volatility sideways market period right now. And that means that directional campaigns simply won’t work. You may get away with grabbing a good entry but just as you’re ready to reap the benefits the tape turns on a dime and stops you out. This has happened across several campaigns over the past two weeks but the incident rate is increasing. Which means it’s time to adjust our trading to the tape. In this particular case it means keeping entries to a bare minimum – personally I get extremely picky and reduce position sizing to a minimum during these types of market periods.

2015-04-20_spoos_update

So let’s look at some evidence supporting my outlandish claims. You guys have seen this chart on several occasions and I’m not going to explain it again. Clearly we are in a sideways range. A few days ago it looked like we may defy gravity and take off but it wasn’t to be. At this point the only context worth its salt is the 25-day SMA and even that one is way too precarious to afford us swing entries. I am staying the heck out of this one for now. If we push to the extremes I may take an inverse entry with a small position size. But I’m really not obsessed with having to trade equities frankly – happy to let this thing play out and revisit in a few weeks.

2015-04-20_GBPUSD_update

Cable – part of the story for sure – just look at the daily panel on the right. That’s one nasty trading range with a lot of long wicks. Meaning stop runs galore and only recently have we seen a bit more directional tape.

2015-04-20_EURUSD_update

The EUR/USD has gone nowhere fast int he past month. Thus far it seems like the 1.05 mark may wind up a long term low but the fat lady hasn’t sung here just yet. This is starting to resemble a real low however – the next few days should be interesting, but for now I’m not taking entires in the middle of the ongoing trading range.

2015-04-20_gold_update

Gold – just peeking at the ST panel is making me dizzy. The daily ain’t much better – once again we seem to be stuck in a sideways range below the 100-day SMA. However, the 25-day is now on the rise and if I see decent ST context in the morning I may be convinced to take a long position here.

2015-04-20_ZB_update

Bonds – just nasty – don’t even ask me when this thing is going to resolve. No interest in participating here.

2015-04-20_crude_update

Crude is the one exception which in the context of the ongoing LT campaign is extremely promising. We got really lucky here when taking our entry and I’m rather conservative with advancing my trailing stop.

2015-04-20_GBPJPY_update

Early morning setup update: GBP/JPY was one of the few charts that actually triggered and didn’t hit its stop shortly after. However I’m long inside a downside trend on the daily chart – my expectations here are extremely low and I’ve advanced my stop to the break/even point. It’s a small position anyway but alas.

No new entries for the day – time to hunker down and keep one’s powder dry.

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Cheers,

Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2015-04-20_spoos_briefing

Index futures are still in shake out mode - as I told you last week it’s best to stay away for now and let this play out. Thus far my caution seems to have been appropriate – just look at this tape on the hourly and tell me if that’s something you really want to be trading. As a side note – for some reason the 2088/2089 mark produces a lot of context. It doesn’t line up with anything on my charts except that I drew this line when I entered long and then got stopped out right there again. And I remember mentioning this level on previous occasions, so for some reason it keeps coming up. Like this morning when we’re bumping against it after a run higher overnight.

2015-04-20_AUDCAD_briefing

We have nice AUD and CAD related entries today. Which is great but if you take them I suggest very small position sizing as we have pertinent event risk a few hours away. Anyway here’s the AUD/CAD and I am long with a stop below the recent spike low. I’m giving this a few hours to ride higher and produce some distance ahead of the BoC governor speech. If it just hangs around here I’ll probably pull it as I’d be sure to be whipsawed out during the event.

2015-04-20_events

Here’s what we’re facing today – set your clocks.

More setups below the fold:


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I mentioned in the sub only section that I’m taking very small position sizes here. Reason being is that we’re in clear shake out mode on both the forex and equities side. It’s a tough market to be active in and you need to be on top of your game, remain nimble, patient, and not get emotional. All those attributes are easier to fulfill when you don’t really care about pulling a loss – ergo take small positions and know your stops and targets before you enter a campaign.

Cheers,

Still In The Game

Boy that was a close shave this morning – one tick lower on the E-Mini this morning and I would be out in the woods right now kicking over trees. Just kidding – you’ve got to take things in stride, even if you get swiped by a tick. For the record – you will always see me put an ISL on my chart with a < sign – which means that you should put your stop BELOW it. In particular you always want to avoid full numbers – except on entry triggers.

2015-04-16_spoos_update

That’s where we are right now – quite a little bear trap this morning, extending all the way down to 2089 – those cheeky bastards! But let’s be honest – I got lucky here as I could have easily have scraped a bid. Better sacrifice a chicken burger to the Market Goddess tonight? And yes, of course it’s a she! ;-)

2015-04-16_spoos_setup

If you are still not exposed after Tuesday’s hammer then today is probably your next best opportunity – and it’s binary. Be long above 2104.75 and short below 2089. The daily context here is really excellent as we’re straddling that upper diagonal on our sideways triangle/wedge.

2015-04-16_CL_update

Here’s crude which has been holding steady – the weekly panel shows us kissing the 25-w SMA and that’s our first theoretical hurdle. Why theoretical? Because it hasn’t been touched in eons – which in itself speaks to the velocity on the way down. It’s still early days and we could easily switch back into shake out mode. But so far so good and my stop is still at break/even.

2015-04-16_ZL_setup

ZL – soybean oil - looking pretty good here straddling the 100-hour SMA and it’s also near the 25-day SMA. I’m going to be long above today’s highs and short below the lows.

More juicy setups waiting below the fold for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

And that’s all I got for today – keep it up everyone and let’s continue banking coin like bosses :-)

Cheers,




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    1. Chop Chop Til You Drop
    2. Monday Morning Briefing
    3. Chasing The Market’s Tail
    4. Still In The Game
    5. Nothing Thursday
    6. Well I’ll Be Damned!
    7. Wednesday Morning Briefing
    8. Bait And Switch Tuesday
    9. Futures Setups Galore
    10. Monday Morning Briefing