Lower Highs And Lower Lows

I’m going to have to be brief tonight as I’m running late and I have a mountain of chores stacked on my desk. So let’s dispense with the formalities and let me try to get you up to speed on what’s going on and where we may be heading. More weakness in equities and right now the hourly panels are our best guides:

2015-03-04_spoos_update

Forget about all the lines and indicators – that’s beside the point right now. What really matters here is PRICE and the spoos are painting lower highs and lower lows. As long as we don’t breach ES 2100 we are heading lower.

2015-03-04_UVOL_DVOL

Selling pressure is definitely for real – observe the rather interesting UVOL/DVOL ratio spikes mid session. There’s a bit of panic selling right there – or perhaps it’s more distribution. Someone thought they may have had more time?

2015-03-04_zero

The Zero signal is for real – compare the signal range today with what we had to put up with over the past week or two. And the big spikes are to the downside – definitely noted.

2015-03-04_NQ_update

As you know I prefer the context on the NQ right now – I think NQ 4452.5 is the first and 4458 is the second line of defense for the bears. Also note that we sliced through the daily NLSL at 4427 but thus far it’s holding. If we close below it today or tomorrow we are going to 4350ish.

2015-03-04_AUDCAD_update

AUD/CAD update – I got pretty lucky there as I was about to grab a long position on a drop to 0.89. Fortunately the tape started to run away from me and I pulled it just in time. Better to be lucky than good – at least every once in a while ;-)

I probably should have looked at the daily panel this morning – that’s a stack of NLBLs right there and the odds for a breach were perhaps a bit low.

2015-03-04_gold_update

Gold update – nice entry there this morning and I’ve moved my stop to the break-even point. I’m holding this as it may continue lower.

2015-03-04_NG_update

My favorite chart today – NG – I also snug in there and for once it actually behaved and didn’t throw me out of the saddle. So far so good. I love the daily and weekly context here – unfortunately I’m less enthused about all those daily NLBLs above but I’ll deal with that if/when we get there.

2015-03-04_crude_update

Crude - got stopped out and then managed to jump back in on the way up. Only caught 1/4R however but I’ll take it and will built my position if it decided to finally abandon this range.

That’s all I got for today – I hope you guys grabbed one or two of this morning’s entries. If nothing else I would enjoy a bit more participation in the comment section. Alright, dinner’s waiting and Mrs. Evil is getting impatient – I have been advised to hurry the heck up. See you guys tomorrow!

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Wednesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2015-03-04_NQ_briefing

Equities continued to exhibit weakness overnight and we’re trading near we started yesterday morning. I actually prefer the context on the NQ right now as we’ve got a solid NLSL on the daily that thus far has managed to stick.

2015-03-04_NQ_hourly_briefing

The hourly panel shows a very nice slowly rising diagonal below the 100-hour SMA and the 25-hour is about to cross over. This is not looking good but there is a very brief opportunity to be long here with a stop below 4438. Below that diagonal we are looking at a slide lower, especially if we breach through 4430. As usual this isn’t going to be easy but I plan to be long right here with my stop and then flip for a short position below 4434. Yes, definite whipsaw potential which is why I’m only attributing 1/2R.

2015-03-04_crude_briefing

Crude – waiting for a drop toward 50.6 – then long with a stop below 50.4.


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2015-03-04_events

Event risk: We got the bank of Canada announcing their interest rate decision – so if you’re trading any CAD related pairs be nimble or better wait it out unless you are already in a solid campaign. We also have the U.S. February ISM numbers on the roster – always good for a little shake out.

Cheers,

Long Term Equities Update

It’s been a while since we’ve covered equities exclusively and as the month is coming to an end this is as good an opportunity to catch up. As you all know I have been dangling the ‘late stage bull market’ carrot for a few weeks now and quite frankly I don’t see any reason to change that outlook. I have been very adamant about expecting a final exhaustion spike higher and believe that is already in the works. Now before you start piling into puts be aware that we may be weeks, perhaps even months away from a downside event. So hold your horses and for now just enjoy the charts in preparation for where we heading most likely later this year. Enough weasel talk and disclaimers? Great – let’s get to the charts.

2015-02-27_zero

Actually it was the Zero chart that reminded me that a LT update may be in order. Over the past few sessions some of my subs and myself have been noticing strange signal patterns suggesting distribution. It’s very much possible but quite frankly I don’t see anything on the momo side that would suggest urgency. In short – nobody can predict when things will take a turn but we are a bit early in the game here still. So let’s review the evidence:

2015-02-27_SPX_LT

 

First the long term SPX with my trusted weekly stochastic. I almost never use this indicator – except on the weekly chart where it actually works pretty well! Right now we’re scraping 100 but in this bull market this means nothing. Most likely we’ll see an embedded signal (above the 80 mark) for a while before we head lower here. So no reason to be in a hurry – again we may be weeks or perhaps even months away.

2015-02-27_SPX_SPXA200R

SPX vs SPXA200R – the latter is the percentage of stocks in the SPX trading above their 200-day SMA. Now that one is looking bloody well divergent and eventually there will be a price to pay. But I don’t think that we’re due just yet (watch how the market will drop instantly after Mole’s statement).


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Bonus Chart!

022615pump

This one is courtesy of Chris Carolan over at spiralcalendar.com – one of the few other analysts I follow. Chris graciously permitted me to post this chart which I not only find absolutely compelling but also appears to be in line with what I’m presenting above. See the delay in the response on the S&P? Ponder on this one over the weekend.

Alright – I’m exhausted and am desperate for my Friday treat:

beer5

Not her you deviant! I’m talking about the Hefeweizen – which is waiting and that’s my cue. See you guys Monday!

Cheers,




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    1. Friday Morning Briefing
    2. Selling The Bounces
    3. Short Term Entry Opportunity
    4. Lower Highs And Lower Lows
    5. Wednesday Morning Briefing
    6. We Got Movement
    7. Tuesday Morning Briefing
    8. Setups Deluxe
    9. Thor Back Tested Past Five Years
    10. Long Term Equities Update