Forex Update

While the S&P E-Mini futures have devolved into one massive sideways mess it seems that the NQ at least gives us an established range. So going forward I may use the NQ as a general guide whilst taking entries on the spoos.

2015-06-24_NQ_update

Of course as soon as the respective ranges become too obvious it’s probably time to abandon them [in the context of taking contrarian trades]. But at least we have a contracting wedge delineating clear inflection points.

2015-06-24_EURGBP_update

EUR/GBP – one of this morning’s freebies – is enjoying a splendid run and I’ve now moved my stop to the break/even point. Suffice to say that this was a bit of a lottery ticket as we really didn’t have three clear historical on that diagonal below (yesterday’s touch was #3). But thus far it’s working out well – not much to do here for now.

2015-06-24_EURCAD_update

EUR/CAD – this one I kept for the subs as well and we managed to get in a bit late but thus far it’s paying off. Can someone tell me what’s so special about the 1.376 mark? Well, if you look closely then you may make out an inverted H&S configuration. Although those are only valuable in hindsight (meaning about now) a defended neckline does often produce a jump higher. Putting my stop at break/even and am burning some incense to appease Ms. Market.

2015-06-24_AUDCAD_update

AUD/CAD – also posted this morning for the subs. The general idea here is that we were painting some sideways floor pattern. What we need to see now is what happens at the upper hourly Bollinger. If it can stick nearby and then swing it higher we may just have a runner on our hands. Again, stop at break/even – not touching it until I see how price reacts to its first hurdle. Note also the 25-day BB which lines up quite nicely.

Words To The Wise

I’m going to poke around a bit more but have doubts that I will come across much of value. Over the past six months the tape has devolved in one big circle jerk across the board. Picking your victims requires quite a bit finesse and I have recently overstayed my welcome a few times after snagging rather fortuitous entries.  Definitely not the type of trending conditions we’ve enjoyed over the past few years.

The Forex side is a still bit better(and more diverse), but as you can see from the charts above even here we are seeing quite a bit of congestion. How long these conditions will prevail is anyone’s guess. My personal inkling is that we remain stuck in a holding loop until later this fall when the Fed will disclose whether or not it is ready to start hiking this year or if they’ll push it until next year. You know my thoughts on that subject already – I have grave doubts that we will see any meaningful interest rate hikes before the end of this decade. So perhaps we should start getting used to more congested tape like this. Fortunately the new strategy I’m working on (Scalpius) loves conditions like these, so although it would suck from a blogging and discretionary trading perspective it would work well for those trading bots.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Freaky Forex Fun

Frankly the tape across the board is giving me a headache and judging by the participation in the comment section you’re either on vacation (and thus not reading this) or are sharing my general sentiment. My gold long was just taken to the woodshed and I don’t see much else on the futures front that captures my fancy.

However some of the Euro pairs are looking interesting this morning and I’m playing a few freaky forex candidates with 1/2R position sizes.

2015-06-24_EURJPY_briefing

EUR/JPY – quite a bit of support there on the daily and I’m grabbing a late long position with a stop below 138.455. Wish I would have seen this one last night to be honest but the recent retest lower makes this a respectable entry.

2015-06-24_EURGBP_briefing

EUR/GBP – one of my favorites today – long here with a stop below 0.708. If we drop through it I won’t flip for a short position – that was my initial thought but in retrospect there is too much momo support on the daily.


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I hope I don’t need to point out that you should split your exposure between the EUR pairs you are grabbing. Correlation can really slap you in the face and if the start going against us they’ll do it in unison.

Cheers,

 

Knocking On Heaven’s Door

Guten Morgen! The NQ futures are currently knocking on heaven’s door – i.e. the 4550 mark. The ST panel is looking supportive and DathMole tells me that volatility is about to expand in the coming hours. I’m already long the spoos since yesterday but if you guys aren’t exposed here’s a pretty good opportunity near an important inflection point.

2015-06-23_NQ_briefing

If the NQ drops back through the 25-hour and below 4534 then I’ll try a short position with a stop above 4548.

I only found one more Forex symbol and unfortunately I’ll have to keep that for my intrepid subs. So please grab your secret decoder ring and meet me in the lair:


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UPDATE 3:00pm EDT: Not much to add here this afternoon. Looking at the Zero and total lack of direction I decided to not go short the NQ and simply hold my ES longs, which thus far have not been stopped out. I’ve moved my stop to below the 100-hour SMA which is currently scraping ES 2108. I will take a quick look around but doubt that I’ll see anything worth grabbing before the close. One of those days – plus, it’s summer – plus I have better things to do right now (hint – see graphs posted in the comment section).

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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