Thar She Blows!

Is it true? Could it be? Someone please pinch me because it looks like we may just have departed this dreaded trading range which has been the source of much stagnation and whipsaw as of late. Well, let’s not jinx it – shall we? The session still has another hour to go and we haven’t really punched into fifth gear just yet.

2015-04-23_spoos_update

Here are the E-Mini S&P futures – a.k.a. the spoos (technically that’s the big contract but anyway) – nice punch higher here when most of us expected another trip to the downside. Yes yes, hindsight is 20/20 – ain’t it? Which is why I suggest you don’t beat yourself up and remember – it’s much better wishing to be in a trade than wishing to be out of one.

2015-04-23_YM_update

Thor actually grabbed a long here last night – I only took 1/2R as I’m a highly suspicious here. Plus YM is lagging the spoos it seems but hey, let’s see how she flows.

2015-04-23_cable_update

Cable update from this morning – so far so good and we’ve got a decent chance to breach that daily NLBL. Next hurdle would be the 100-day SMA but let’s address that if/when we get there.

2015-04-23_CADJPY_update

CAD/JPY – one of my favorite charts in my roster right now. We took an early entry yesterday and the actual IP long trigger was a few ticks higher. Which ever you took – so far it’s looking fine but we can’t rule a retest of the 100-day SMA, which is still falling, let’s not forget that. So we are far from being out of the woods here.

2015-04-23_crude_update

Crude – definitely out of the woods on that one. My trailing stop was never threatened and I’m keeping it here as I don’t want to be swiped in case we see a stop run lower before she blows. If it manages to pass 59 we are entering short squeeze territory – wouldn’t that be a shame… ;-)

2015-04-23_ZB_update

Bonds – no setup here, just a general observation. I’m actually short ZB via Thor and it’s looking good but has not locked in the 2R mark just yet. IMO this thing either falls apart right here or we’ll see another trip higher.

I’ve got some setups but will reserve them for my intrepid subs:


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Thursday Morning Briefing

The volatile market conditions over the past two weeks have greatly diminished by appetite for taking short term setups. What we have seen especially on the Forex side borders the spasmodic and the more difficult/random the conditions the less I participate. No sense in forcing the issue as it’s not a matter of skill or experience. After all you wouldn’t take off in a Piper in the midst of a hailstorm either, right? So let’s apply the same common sense to navigating the tape.

2015-04-23_AUDJPY_briefing

AUD/JPY – I looked at this chart for quite a while after it caught my initial attention. What I like on a short term basis is that it’s not too busy blasting off in the opposite direction out of the blue. The daily context is mixed in that we’ve been trapped in a pretty nasty sideways range for over a month now – very much representative of the current  market conditions. I am long here 1/4R with a stop below 92.45 for the off chance that it manages to break above that daily NLBL at 93.03.


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Setups Deluxe

Not a very interesting day on the equities side unless you enjoy playing the swings, in which case the sideways range on the E-Mini for instance offered quite some opportunity for jumping in and out. It’s the sort of day when the Zero really shines and not surprisingly it painted a pretty juicy Mole reversal signal during the mid day stab lower – plus note a very distinct signal divergence during the highs:

2015-03-01_zero

However what really caught my attention is the repeating pattern that its presenting itself on the hourly Zero panel (the lower panel). It’s starting to look like a heart beat and since it represents participation to the up/down side my conclusion is that buy/sell programs are bouncing the ball back/forth here. I looked around for signs of distribution or divergences on the momo side but still see very little.

2015-03-02_UVOL_DVOL

My UVOL/DVOL panel seems to support that notion as both lines are almost in perfect sync and are steadily rising – easy as she goes. Again, great day for swing traders, everyone else be nimble and be long near today’s lows and short near the highs (unless we breach above ES 2015 – see charts below).

2015-03-02_spoos_volume_hole

The E-Mini volume profile shows us a pretty deep volume hole at 2010 which now has been touched 2 1/2 times (the first one missed it by a tick or two). So that should serve as an inflection point moving forward – on the upside we have a ceiling near 2015.

2015-03-02_spoos_update

Which also is represented by a NLBL at 2014.75 – a breach above that by a tick or two and we are probably off to the races for another stab higher.

2015-03-02_USDCAD_triangle_setup

But I promised setups and am happy to deliver as we’ve got a ton today, especially on the futures side. But first Forex – here’s the USD/CAD which is painting a descending triangle formation. Now the odds for a breach higher is pretty low – I think we are talking like 15% or so. Which affects your position sizing – your odds of success are low but accordingly your pay off is high as many traditional chartists will expect a break down lower here – perhaps after a fake out spike higher. Sure, may happen, but every once in a while it just keeps running higher and burns the shorts in the process. Therefore my plan is to add 1/4R on a breach of 125.5 and another 1/4R on a breach above 1.266 – give/take a few ticks. 1/2R total with a stop below the 25-day SMA.

2015-03-02_cocoa_setup

Cocoa – very nice formation here and I’ll be long above today’s hammer with a stop below the NLSL (you can also use today’s low as usual).

Quite a bit more below the fold – please join me in the lair:


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Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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    1. Time To Start Paying Attention
    2. Monday Morning Briefing
    3. Thar She Blows!
    4. Thursday Morning Briefing
    5. Told You
    6. Make That Money
    7. Sideways High Impulsive Tape
    8. Tuesday Morning Briefing
    9. Chop Chop Til You Drop
    10. Monday Morning Briefing