Dr. Seuss’ Worst Nightmare

I’m not one to brag but when it comes to enduring extended periods of crappy tape the market Mole has grown to be rather resilient over the years. But the spasmodic gyrations we had to endure of the past six months or so has put things on whole new level. I think the last time I saw random swings even remotely resembling this mess was in 2010 and that was not a happy trading year for many. Even when I back test various strategies that year is usually one that ends up on the flat or negative side.

2015-06-03_spoos_update2

I’ve watched several of you guys trying to make sense of this woodchipper and I implore you to just let it go. There is simply too much noise and confusion out there –  it’s our inherent human nature which insists on attempting to see patterns where there are none. If you draw enough lines and squiggly things you will convince yourself that you’ll see a distinct formation. I happen to be long since ES 2113 which I grabbed on a dip lower this morning – my stop still stands below 2007. But frankly I don’t really care – as I said a week or two ago: the less credence/time I give this POS tape the better I’ll be for it.

2015-06-03_gold_update

And equity futures aren’t the only culprits – just look at what gold has put us through. Not even CrazyIvan is liking this and it eats spasmodic gyrations for breakfast. You have been warned – just stay away for now.

2015-06-03_GBPUSD_update

Cable update – still in this one but I have moved my stop up to the recent spike low. I do like the general concept here and I’m going to hold it. But either this one gets out of the gate now or not.

2015-06-03_AUDJPY_setup

We’ve seen quite a bit of movement on the Forex side however. AUD/JPY at an inflection point – either it’ll start correcting here or it’ll swing that upper BB to the upside. I’m currently long with a stop near 96.55 – below that I’ll flip for a short. 1/2R sizes only – way too much volatility out there right now.


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The Bulls Are Back On Notice

Just this morning I was hoping for some movement, but this may be a bit more than we bargained for. Right after the open the red candles started to stack up and at 10:15am EDT our trend day alert suggested the moderate possibility of a downtrend day. Yeah, no kiddin’!

2015-05-26_zero

The Zero shows us several strong signal swings to the downside. This is real selling pressure folks and all dip buying attempts (quick spikes up above the zero mark) thus far have failed. This could easily continue into the close.

2015-05-26_spoos_update

Boy, this is one ugly chart – several bearish signals triggered today: First up the NLBL at 2134 was never even touched, then the NLSL at 2113.25 was sliced through like a hot knife through butter. We also are failing a weekly NLBL that we have been testing since last week. We are now back to accumulating bearish evidence – yes, again.

I told you guys LT market tops are tedious – no way to predict when it finally turns and until it happens you have to remain nimble. I’m sure you’re glad now that you listened! You’re most welcome – the Mole’s got you covered as always. In any case, today’s plunge certainly goes on the books as significant technical damage.

2015-05-26_SPX_PnF

The point and figure chart brilliantly visualizes the ongoing market conditions – noting but sideways congestion since late last year. Every sudden drop to the downside has been mechanically bought again thus far – but there will come the time when this game will finally find its maker. In any case – take note that we are triggering a high pole reversal warning today. And that means the bulls are officially on notice. If we drop through 2090 there will be hell to pay.

2015-05-26_AUDJPY_setup

It’s always difficult to find entries when things are moving fast but I was able to dig up a few victims. On the Forex side we have the AUD/JPY which is painting a shooting star today. However it’s happening right on top of the 25-day SMA and if we can hold it then we may just trigger a failed shooting star long (I wrote hammer on the chart – sorry). I’m actually taking an early long position here – 1/2R – with a stop below 94.903. If it breaches the daily NLBL at 95.755 then I’ll add another 1/2R.


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Thar She Blows!

Is it true? Could it be? Someone please pinch me because it looks like we may just have departed this dreaded trading range which has been the source of much stagnation and whipsaw as of late. Well, let’s not jinx it – shall we? The session still has another hour to go and we haven’t really punched into fifth gear just yet.

2015-04-23_spoos_update

Here are the E-Mini S&P futures – a.k.a. the spoos (technically that’s the big contract but anyway) – nice punch higher here when most of us expected another trip to the downside. Yes yes, hindsight is 20/20 – ain’t it? Which is why I suggest you don’t beat yourself up and remember – it’s much better wishing to be in a trade than wishing to be out of one.

2015-04-23_YM_update

Thor actually grabbed a long here last night – I only took 1/2R as I’m a highly suspicious here. Plus YM is lagging the spoos it seems but hey, let’s see how she flows.

2015-04-23_cable_update

Cable update from this morning – so far so good and we’ve got a decent chance to breach that daily NLBL. Next hurdle would be the 100-day SMA but let’s address that if/when we get there.

2015-04-23_CADJPY_update

CAD/JPY – one of my favorite charts in my roster right now. We took an early entry yesterday and the actual IP long trigger was a few ticks higher. Which ever you took – so far it’s looking fine but we can’t rule a retest of the 100-day SMA, which is still falling, let’s not forget that. So we are far from being out of the woods here.

2015-04-23_crude_update

Crude – definitely out of the woods on that one. My trailing stop was never threatened and I’m keeping it here as I don’t want to be swiped in case we see a stop run lower before she blows. If it manages to pass 59 we are entering short squeeze territory – wouldn’t that be a shame… ;-)

2015-04-23_ZB_update

Bonds – no setup here, just a general observation. I’m actually short ZB via Thor and it’s looking good but has not locked in the 2R mark just yet. IMO this thing either falls apart right here or we’ll see another trip higher.

I’ve got some setups but will reserve them for my intrepid subs:


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    Zero Indicator


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