Wednesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.


Nice activity this morning which presents us with nice entry opportunities. Time to get busy! Here are the spoos which have descended a bit over night and are now approaching the 100-hour SMA. I think a long near 2121.75 with a stop below 2120 has merit. If that one goes then we probably drop to 2113.25 or lower.


Similar pattern on the NQ and you can spread your exposure between those two.


EUR/USD – liking the sell off at the ATM but from a trading perspective we are approaching the last line of defense which IMO is the 25-day SMA near 1.10862. I’m trying a long if we breach 1.11.51 with a stop still to be determined – need to see the next spike low or NLSL.


Gold – long near the 25-hour with a stop below 1202.7. That was quite a slap down! Let’s see if it can recover or if we’re back in sideways mode. FWIW – boy the June contract has been a crap period for traders.

Quite a bit more waiting below the fold – please meet me in the lair:

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.


Campaign Updates

I’ve accumulated a good number of positions over the past week and decided to not take on anything more for the day. We still haven’t really taken off across major indices and in line with my adjusted modus operandi of remaining nimble I don’t want to get over exposed. So let’s do a quick run down of some of our recent victims:


The spoos thus far are looking good to go and I’m moving my stop to 2112 now which is at break/even.


AUD/USD – that’s a campaign I’ve been holding since last week. It somehow rolled over nail or something as it went completely flat and rolled back to the downside. Stop out at my trailing stop for a humble 1R profit.


AUD/CAD – boy that was an awesome entry this morning right before it took off like a rocket. Moving my stop to break even and will hold through the RBA minutes in about seven hours.


EUR/CAD – also one from this morning. I say meh here and this one may actually stop out. I love the formation on the daily but it was probably too early to try a long position. I only have 1/3R in this one so I’m holding it.


EUR/GBP – stopped out of this morning’s ST position. The original entry form last week is still good and my stop remains at break even. Not really loving the mojo on this one to be honest but I’m holding it.


Cable – a few more pips to the downside and I’ll be out of that one. I was hoping for a LKGB here but it kept dropping below the 100-hour SMA. Bummer really as this is a great setup and I would take it every single time. Perhaps we’ll get another chance at the daily NLSL further below.


USD/CHF – awesome entry here this morning and I’m moving my stop to break even.


Wheat – for some reason this one screamed continuation at me this morning. Very few traders would have taken a long after that long candle last week. Great entry and I’m obviously holding it although I’m pretty sure there will be a LKGB retest of the 100-day. Moving my stop to break/even and Bob’s my uncle.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


The One That Got Away

You may think that I’m referring to my short positions in the spoos but you would be horribly wrong. Saw that one coming a few miles out and exited at break/even as previously planned.


And also as previously planned – I am long since 2112 with a stop below 2105. Let’s see if we finally get some directional tape, but who knows. I’ve managed to traverse this sideways mess this far without getting my ass kicked but something tells me to better not test my luck. There are limits to Ms. Market’s patience – even for the mighty trading Mole.


Now what I was referring to in my title is … gold. You may remember this one from two days ago. I saw a potential break out chart and was waiting for a teeny weeny dip to the downside to grab some longs. Only problem is – it never happened and I didn’t get my fill.


If there is one thing that absolutely truly annoys me is when I read the market right and for some reason don’t get a seat on the bus. I know – I should listen to my own advice – better wishing to be in a trade than wishing to be out of one. Rub it in! Instead I choose to console myself with the campaigns that are running as planned.


Natgas – very sweet entry that same day actually and it’s off to the races. We’re now touching the 25-week SMA and as you can see the 100-day BB is narrow as hell. I say we have ourselves a runner here and I suggest you let this sucker run all the way.


CHF/JPY – equally perfect entry and it already bounced against a NLBL – thus far it’s unable to muster enough mojo for continuation higher. I’m moving stop near 129.80 – let’s see if she can bounce from the daily lows.


AUD/USD – excellent progress so far although the past day or so is looking mixed. Again I’m trailing here – this time I’m using a daily NLBL, expecting support nearby.


EUR/GBP – it’s been ‘meh’ but it’s holding thus far. My stop is now at break/even – only giving this one 30% chance to resolve successfully.

Speaking of the Euro – I have put together some long term EUR/USD perspectives for the subs. Please meet me in the lair:

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


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