The Game In A Nutshell

I think today’s session should serve as a stark reminder that the very last thing you should ever attempt is to apply even the slightest sliver of logic to market behavior, especially during volatile periods. I’m going to make this very easy for you rats, so listen up and listen carefully now. If in doubt or if you find yourself attempting to make a prediction as to where the tape may swing in response to big news events remind yourself of the following:

shark_tank

Now read the line above again a few times and then write it on a piece of paper and stick it to your wall or resident shark tank if you have one handy. I prefer the latter as it serves as a proper backdrop to that message and for all you pikers I have put together a little theme pic which you can use instead ;-)

2015-06-29_spoos_update

Case in point are the spoos which first gapped lower screwing anyone left long – then attempted to close the gap until the 100-day SMA (and weekly NLBLs) to then turn on a dime and continue lower. Clearly there is no explaining any of this and neither should we try. The chart above provided us with all we need to know.

2015-06-29_zero

So did the Zero I may add which has been pointing down all day since the open. But chances are you weren’t watching that one as you’re a nomadic ZeroEdge reading retail rat and thus can’t afford the monthly subscription for your $2000 E*Trade account.

2015-06-29_ZM_setup_freebie

Soybean meal – I just held my nose and take a spoon full long here with a stop below 332. 1/2R only as the daily context is looking rather bearish so odds have it I’ll be stopped out. But if not it’ll catch a bunch of folks off guard.

2015-06-29_Euro_setup

Euro – nice upper BB touch and I’m short here 1/2R. I do love this chart but the gap turned into a short squeeze. Why? Because a reversal higher and beyond didn’t make any sense whatsoever, which is exactly why it happened. If that confuses you please re-read the intro above.

The force today is definitely with Forex – and for my intrepid subs I have more setups waiting below the fold:


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That’s it for today – I hope none of you guys were caught off guard and are positioned nicely. Definitely no lack in volatility and odds have it that we’ll see a bit more before things quiet down for Independence Day weekend.

Cheers,

Monday Morning Briefing

I’m back from my weekend get-away and much to my shame I was looking forward to getting back to the lair most of the time I was gone. What the hell is wrong with me? Well, we’ve got very interesting tape unfolding this morning which means we’re going to hit the ground running. But first let’s get up to speed on what’s happening on the equities side:

2015-06-08_spoos_briefing

After a rather eventless looking Friday (good timing on taking the day off) we seem to be slowly descending lower. Damn you Skynard! ;-)

Anyway, we are looking at soft support here between the weekly NLSL and the 100-day SMA near 2080. I know that’s a 20 handle window but I can’t offer anything that’s not on my chart.

2015-06-08_YM_briefing

The YM is looking a bit more productive actually. It’s already trading below its 100-day SMA and the next weekly NLSL is at 17690 (typo on chart). Which means I wouldn’t think about long positions before we descend into that range.

2015-06-08_soybeans_briefing

Soybeans is looking like it wants to continue higher plus volatility is expected to jump here soon. I’m long with a stop below 937.

2015-06-08_AUDCAD_briefing

AUD/CAD – long here as well with a stop below 0.9460. I would prefer to be below the spike low but that’s a bit too far away, so I’m taking a little chance here.

2015-06-08_CADCHF_briefing

CAD/CHF – short here with a stop above 0.758. Again I would have preferred to be above the spike high but it’s a bit distant right now.

I have some very nice goodies for you subs – please meet me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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In completely unrelated news: The German women team beat Ivory Coast 10:0. What are they feeding those gals?

2015-06-08_1422

 

In one of the pics you actually see one of them floating in the air. My money is on advanced genetic engineering… YOU GO… uuuuhhhh…. gals? ;-)

Cheers,

We’ve Got Movement

Despite yesterday’s lottery tickets the odds supported continuation lower and that’s exactly what we got. Early in the morning near the open there was a moment when I thought the bulls still had a chance – yesterday’s lows had held up overnight and we were slowly crawling higher. However shortly after the bell that low was crushed and it’s been a sea of read since. Let’s see where we are and where we may be heading:

2015-05-06_spoos_update

The E-Mini is now touching its 100-day SMA and the easy part of the journey is over. That doesn’t mean it’s the end of the line for the bears. We are most likely going to close below the daily NLSL at 2070.25 and despite a bounce we could easily continue lower afterward. As I’m typing this our current line of defense is the weekly NLSL at 2064 and if that one doesn’t hold we have a stack terminating near 2030. Below that the bulls are quite frankly screwed.

2015-05-06_SPX_PNF

Yesterday I showed you guys this P&F chart and pointed at 2080 as a level to keep your eye on. Well, if we close below that – and the odds are high we do then we’ll finalize a double bottom break down on our SPX P&F chart. The current temporary target is 2020 – my money says we may drop lower. Again, if we bounce right here this may change again. A run back to 2095 would trigger a low pole reversal warning.

Oh – you didn’t see that chart? Probably because you’re not a sub – an unfortunate situation you should remedy! ;-)

2015-05-06_crude_update

Our crude campaign is proceeding according to our nefarious plan. What can I say – we got a perfect entry there and I’m holding this all the way. My trailing stop now advances to 56.07.

2015-05-06_ZB_update

We’re not in this one but bonds have literally fallen off the plate over the past few days. I’m seeing very very soft support here but would not dare taking entries until price confirms that a low may be in place. Anyway, keep an eye on this one. If you’re short – don’t bloody touch it and let your trailing stop take care of you.

2015-05-06_PA_setup

Very very nice setups tonight – I’ll throw one out for free the rest is for the subs only. Palladium – long above 796.80 – my stop goes below today’s lows.

Quite a few more waiting below the fold:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Did I promise too much? Now let’s go and get that money!

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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