Wicked Wednesday

It’s all smiles down here at the evil lair as Scalpius is starting to get its groove on and managed to bank over 20R in the past two sessions. I’m still fiddling with the trailing logic but at this point it is outperforming what I’m seeing in historical tape. Reason being is that you can never properly simulate the spread, the offers, the available volume – it has to be done live.  Proper trailing is as much an art as it is science as it needs to consider the momentum of the price action and weigh existing against potential future gains. Yes, you can come up with MFE stats but they can be deceptive because your strategy may not be banking coin consistently – some thrive in trending tape, others due to mean reversion. So you want to optimize it for the type of tape it’s built to exploit. In the case of Scalpius that’s ST trending tape.

2015-08-12_scalpius

Picking a range inside that coveted sweet spot has been my recent endeavor and I have resorted to some rather creative approaches, which are truly pushing the envelope but seem to be paying off. The stats above show you the recent live track record which actually missed a few 4R winners (one today) as I’m still fiddling with my b/a spread filters. Definitely work in progress but it’s getting there and clearly I’m on the right track.

2015-08-12_natgas_update

Quick update on natgas – this one looks like it’s good to go. I’ve moved my stop up to the break/even spot now and until this thing picks a direction there’s nothing to do. Natgas has been in this sideways hell for months now, which is rather uncharacteristic. When it finally takes off one of these days there will be hell to pay. They call it the widow maker for a reason.

2015-08-12_ZF_briefing

Alright, we have a ton of setups today, ladies and leeches! Let’s start with the bonds, here’s the five year contract which I’m long with a stop below 110’3. This one could turn into a trending candidate but it’s still a bit early to judge.

2015-08-12_ZN_briefing

Ten year futures – also long here with a stop below 128.

2015-08-12_ZB_briefing

And the thirty year – you get the idea. I have split my R between those three in case you wonder – I’m not that bold and neither should you be.

Quite a bit more below the fold – meet me in the lair:


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By the way the Evil Lair’s genetic science division managed to splice together gene samples of Ragnar Lothbrock plus some essence of Godsmack and Disturbed. Here’s what came out the test tube:

Now I admit – nothing really new here BUT for some reason it’s absolutely brilliant. Can’t stop listening to it. It’s a new band so these guys need some promotion. If you like it send it to everyone you know. And let’s not forget Disturbed is releasing a new album in a few days. Maybe there’s hope for rock & roll in this decade just yet.

Cheers,

Furious And Furious Friday

We got movement people! And obviously I’m not talking about equities where we’re still spasmodically bouncing around in the same six month trading range. Booooring! Unless of course you are the evil lair’s official Swing Slayer and that coveted title is already taken by Skynard. You will have to defeat him first and then send me one of his digits to assume his position. It also helps if you either have at least one dragon or an army of White Walkers at your disposal. Either that or just send me money – I am surprisingly corruptible.

2015-06-26_spoos_briefing

Okay, let’s get the tedious charts out of the way first. Equities – I’m risking a tiny long position if it touches 2095 with a stop below 2090.

2015-06-26_ZL_update

Alright so I was talking about movement, remember? Plenty of that across the softs in recent days (i.e. corn, soy, wheat, etc.) – you guys really need to get yourself some futures accounts. Speaking of which, do you still remember the soybean diet I pimped the other day? Soybean oil has advanced beautifully and I’m now putting my stop below a recent spike low. I think that one has potential to go all the way.

2015-06-26_soybeans_update

On the actual soybeans contract it’s time to head for the hills after a beautiful stab higher. Sure it could push even further but my target has been hit and that’s that. I’ll keep an eye on it however for new entry opportunities – preferably after a little shake out.

2015-06-26_GBPCAD_briefing_leeches

GBPCAD – fascinating formation on the daily – rarely seen anything like that on the forex side. I’m happy to play the swings here just for fun but I reckon that it’ll be ready to pick a direction early next week. Be careful usually you’ll see a fake breach first – if you are really good at this game then you can try to play the fake breach with an inverse position. Paging Skynard the Swing Slayer!


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. If there’s anything interesting to share (and if I see you guys actually showing up – I know it’s summer… yuk) then I’ll see you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

Happy Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2015-06-01_spoos_briefing

The week is hitting the ground running it seems. As Skynard mused in the prior post – we are most likely going to see a spike in volatility here today. The spoos are looking super juicy here as we are tickling support and it’s my patriotic duty to grab a long position with a stop below 2099. Below that we’ll probably drop into whoknowshowlow. Which means I’ll swap for a short if stopped out.

2015-06-01_ZB_briefing

The 30-year bond futures are also sitting on a binary inflection point – long above the NLBL and short below the rising 100-hour SMA which is also backed up by a NLSL. Bonus point – you won’t have to roll for a while if it starts trending, so stop futzing about and get on with it.

2015-06-01_gold_briefing

Time to strike while the iro… uuuh gold is hot – a stop below 1180 should do the trick. This one is also short of dropping off the plate which means I’m open to flip the script and go for shorts if stopped out. All that sideways tape has lulled you into almost slavish submission and I bet good money right now most of you rats will miss the boat once it starts trending. Prove me wrong.

2015-06-01_GBPNZD_briefing

GBP/NZD – long here with a stop below the 100-hour SMA. Who wants to live forever? Me actually which is why I’m only playing 1/2R.

You want more? Better pay up and join the club – leeches only get to see the tip of the iceberg 😉


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Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

2015-06-01_events

A bit of event risk around 10:00am Eastern – so batten down the hatches around that time. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,




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