The One That Got Away

You may think that I’m referring to my short positions in the spoos but you would be horribly wrong. Saw that one coming a few miles out and exited at break/even as previously planned.

2015-05-14_spoos_update

And also as previously planned – I am long since 2112 with a stop below 2105. Let’s see if we finally get some directional tape, but who knows. I’ve managed to traverse this sideways mess this far without getting my ass kicked but something tells me to better not test my luck. There are limits to Ms. Market’s patience – even for the mighty trading Mole.

2015-05-13_gold_briefing

Now what I was referring to in my title is … gold. You may remember this one from two days ago. I saw a potential break out chart and was waiting for a teeny weeny dip to the downside to grab some longs. Only problem is – it never happened and I didn’t get my fill.

2015-05-14_gold_update

If there is one thing that absolutely truly annoys me is when I read the market right and for some reason don’t get a seat on the bus. I know – I should listen to my own advice – better wishing to be in a trade than wishing to be out of one. Rub it in! Instead I choose to console myself with the campaigns that are running as planned.

2015-05-14_natgas_update

Natgas – very sweet entry that same day actually and it’s off to the races. We’re now touching the 25-week SMA and as you can see the 100-day BB is narrow as hell. I say we have ourselves a runner here and I suggest you let this sucker run all the way.

2015-05-14_CHFJPY_update

CHF/JPY – equally perfect entry and it already bounced against a NLBL – thus far it’s unable to muster enough mojo for continuation higher. I’m moving stop near 129.80 – let’s see if she can bounce from the daily lows.

2015-05-14_AUDUSD_update

AUD/USD – excellent progress so far although the past day or so is looking mixed. Again I’m trailing here – this time I’m using a daily NLBL, expecting support nearby.

2015-05-14_EURGBP_update

EUR/GBP – it’s been ‘meh’ but it’s holding thus far. My stop is now at break/even – only giving this one 30% chance to resolve successfully.

Speaking of the Euro – I have put together some long term EUR/USD perspectives for the subs. Please meet me in the lair:


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Cheers,

Magic Bounce

At the risk of sounding cynical but that bounce off the lows today was rather mysterious and reeks like an engineered double squeeze. Once again our Zero indicator signal paints a pretty good representation of today’s whipsaw:

2015-05-12_zero

Some poor sub was asking me how to interpret those wild swings and the best I could offer was the following:

  1. Clearly the tape suddenly turned on a dime today. You may point at some random news event as an explanation but I smell turkey.
  2. The bounce and gap fill that followed looks like it was run by prop desks and institutional traders. The strongest spike was a 1.0 compared with a negative 2.5 on the downside.
  3. VWAP has not been touched since the lows, which is rather unusual given a) the initial drop lower and b) the diminishing participation which since has turned into a flatline.

Obviously all this is completely in sync with the current market phase – which remains to be one big sideways high volatility wood chipper bent on destroying as many participants as possible. So treat carefully and make sure you get exposed only when the odds are clearly on our side.

2015-05-12_spoos_update

Speaking of which – what an awesome entry at ES 2011 yesterday. Things looked quite rosy there after the open but it was not to be. I am staying short here as swapping positions here due to a bounce is not part of my system – I got a good entry and I’m riding it to the end. Moving my stop to break/even however, that’s for sure. I’ll be looking into swapping for longs if that happens – as discussed yesterday.

The positive thing here is that this dip lower builds even more context, once again demonstrating that the short side is unable to breach little more than short term support levels. The current NLBL at 2111.75 has already been tested and a breach higher would be a damn good reason to be long. But for now I’m not going to second guess direction – this is exactly the type of tail chasing we need to avoid. You got an almost perfect entry – stick it out as per the system rules.

2015-05-12_EURGBP_update

Some updates on our ongoing campaigns – EUR/GBP looked good for a while but has dropped back lower. Nothing to add since yesterday’s entry. Still willing to flip for a short position should it drop below the weekly NLSL.

2015-05-12_CHFJPY_update

CHF/JPY – also looked a lot better a few hours ago. I’m moving my stop to break/even now.

2015-05-12_AUDUSD_update

AUD/USD – that one seems to be good to go! As you can see it’s peeking over its 25-week SMA and a breach here could lead to a squeeze higher.

2015-05-12_natgas_update

Natgas – I think I threw that one out for free yesterday. I really hope some of you guys grabbed a few long positions after it produced more context near the 100-hour SMA. I’m riding this sucker all the way. Stop now at break/even of course.

A few more goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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Cheers,

Bluffin’

Pretty relaxed day down here at the lair but we continue to print coin one campaign at a time. It’s been pretty rough sailing over the past few weeks and I’m proud to say that our policy of taking on small but strategic risk has paid off.

Most importantly we have been extremely picky in choosing setups which kept us out of a lot of whipsaw tape. Human psychology often leads you to increase participation during noisy tape – may this be due to revenge trading, over compensation, defense of entrenched opinion, who knows – the rabbit hole of human cognitive biases runs deep. However if you’re playing it by the book you should be fine – you may have not caught every single swing but as I said the other day, our mission during this market phase is survival and keeping one’s powder dry for more directional tape. Message received? Great, let’s move on.

2015-05-11_spoos_update

I’ve fortunately kept short despite a quick spike higher to 2013 this morning – this conniving bitch of a market stopped me out at 2012. But persistent as I am I jumped back in at 2011 seeing the complete lack of participation on the Zero:

2015-05-11_zero

I was prepared for whipsaw and thus far it’s continuing lower. I’m a bit surprised actually as participation has completely flatlined all day. But if you find yourself on the right side of the tape, don’t over think it right? Fortunately the context developing here is extremely positive. Even if we reverse and run higher I’d be happy to flip for long positions as this would actually validate the entry. So I think we’re positioned well and the tape is now working in our favor.

2015-05-11_cable_update

Cable update – I’m taking profits here after a textbook entry two days ago. I could wait for a touch of the upper BB but as I mentioned last week: In this market I’m a bit quicker to take profits – the nimble trader lives another day.

2015-05-11_bonds_trend_trade

Bonds – this could actually turn into a trend day. Very few people would look for short positions here but this is actually what may happen. For right now I’m long but my short trigger is at 153’20.

Juicy setups waiting below the fold – please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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