Time To Bitch Slap Old Bucky

The Fed is pretty much running out of options at this point. Their current modus operandi is to continue pretending that they want to raise rates but without real intentions of doing it anytime soon. Every month we are being served another paltry excuse as to why they’re still hesitant or that they’ll assess their timing based on the economic data. Perhaps next time it’s the humidity or waiting for the moon’s phase to line up properly.

Which means that among the few tools remaining in their arsenal to to keep equities afloat is to stomp on the Dollar once it approaches escape velocity. And given the Greek drama the timing couldn’t be any better to stick it to those dreaded Dollar bulls. And that’s going to be our theme of the day. Not because I say so but because quite a few USD related Forex symbols have moved into sync over the past few hours.

2015-07-09_EURUSD_briefing

For starters I’m grabbing a long here on the EUR/USD with a stop below the recent spike low. If the 100-hour can’t be held then we’re going to see quite a bit more sideways churn or perhaps even a revisit of the recent lows.

2015-07-09_AUDUSD_briefing

AUD/USD is looking pretty juicy here as well and I’m long with a stop below its recent spike low. Also nice to see the daily far outside the 100-day BB. Now it’s still early days here but if this thing bounces it’s high time – if it doesn’t manage a reversal here it may fall off the plate and turn into a trend trade to the short side. So short positions on a stop out may be possible here.

2015-07-09_spoos_briefing

The E-Mini isn’t among my favorite charts right now but if I don’t talk about it you guys are most likely to ride me out of the lair on a rail. So here you go – a possible long setup on the spoos if it drops to 2050. May not do it though so don’t chase it.

More goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

The One That Got Away

You may think that I’m referring to my short positions in the spoos but you would be horribly wrong. Saw that one coming a few miles out and exited at break/even as previously planned.

2015-05-14_spoos_update

And also as previously planned – I am long since 2112 with a stop below 2105. Let’s see if we finally get some directional tape, but who knows. I’ve managed to traverse this sideways mess this far without getting my ass kicked but something tells me to better not test my luck. There are limits to Ms. Market’s patience – even for the mighty trading Mole.

2015-05-13_gold_briefing

Now what I was referring to in my title is … gold. You may remember this one from two days ago. I saw a potential break out chart and was waiting for a teeny weeny dip to the downside to grab some longs. Only problem is – it never happened and I didn’t get my fill.

2015-05-14_gold_update

If there is one thing that absolutely truly annoys me is when I read the market right and for some reason don’t get a seat on the bus. I know – I should listen to my own advice – better wishing to be in a trade than wishing to be out of one. Rub it in! Instead I choose to console myself with the campaigns that are running as planned.

2015-05-14_natgas_update

Natgas – very sweet entry that same day actually and it’s off to the races. We’re now touching the 25-week SMA and as you can see the 100-day BB is narrow as hell. I say we have ourselves a runner here and I suggest you let this sucker run all the way.

2015-05-14_CHFJPY_update

CHF/JPY – equally perfect entry and it already bounced against a NLBL – thus far it’s unable to muster enough mojo for continuation higher. I’m moving stop near 129.80 – let’s see if she can bounce from the daily lows.

2015-05-14_AUDUSD_update

AUD/USD – excellent progress so far although the past day or so is looking mixed. Again I’m trailing here – this time I’m using a daily NLBL, expecting support nearby.

2015-05-14_EURGBP_update

EUR/GBP – it’s been ‘meh’ but it’s holding thus far. My stop is now at break/even – only giving this one 30% chance to resolve successfully.

Speaking of the Euro – I have put together some long term EUR/USD perspectives for the subs. Please meet me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

Long Term Update

It’s been a while and today seems like a good day to catch up with our long term charts. In general it seems like we have touched major lows in various key markets – most importantly on the Euro and crude front. The former much to my chagrin of course – how much I have enjoyed the favorable exchange rate and I’m not looking forward to seeing that change. Alright, let’s cover some major symbols, starting with equities of course:

2015-02-19_spoos_update

The long term panels on the S&P futures look in pretty good shape at this point, however it seems that we remain pinned below our weekly NLBL at ES 2088.75. It would be preferable to overcome this one by tomorrow as it would issue a weekly buy, thus almost guaranteeing new highs and a final departure from a two month trading range spanning over 100 handles.

2015-02-19_SPX_PNF

The SPX point and figure however shows a lot of positive evidence – in particular I like that support cluster near 1990 which in the future should provide some very solid support during any attempts to drag equities lower. On the long term chart we already have strong context courtesy of the 25-week SMA which has been attacked several times in the past months but managed to remain intact. However I must point out that this is the first horizontal defense line in a long time – which means the trend is weakening and most likely in its late stages.

In summary the bulls remain large and in charge here and if you’re holding long term then there is no reason to second guess the advance, despite all the bearish musings across the financial media and blogosphere. Yes, the bulls were in big trouble a few weeks ago but managed to throw a last minute Hail Mary. So far it’s working and until we see signs of exhaustion again the bear goes back into hibernation. He had his chance and he blew it.

2015-02-19_gold_LT

Gold looked like it was ready for take off and then suddenly deflated like a French soufflé. Quite frankly the gold bugs are in big trouble here and if we breach through that 100-week SMA and below the NLSL at 1130 there’s no telling how low it’ll go.

2015-02-19_gold_PNF

The P&F totally agrees it seems as the bullish PO is still a possibility but signals a high pole reversal warning which is about to turn into a sell signal. The gold bugs are on notice here and perhaps in a few days we’ll have a chance to take out a few lottery tickets to the long side. As I said – below 1130 we may just fall off the plate. Until that happens the long side is worth a shot as I expect 1130 to be defended fiercely.

More LT musings below the fold – please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


    Darth Mole Alerts

  1. poll

    • How many discretionary trades to you place per month?



      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...


  2. NinjaTrader
    Kinetick

    search warrant



  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Fixing The Flaws In Fixed Fractional Position Sizing
    2. Thursday Road Map
    3. Volatility Wave Surfing
    4. Dangling By A Thread
    5. Paying Attention Pays Off
    6. Sell Off Thursday Wrap Up
    7. Pay Attention Now
    8. Setups Setups Setups!
    9. I’m Your Huckleberry
    10. Who’s The Sucker?