No Juice

Equities have managed to push higher overnight and the E-Mini is now crossing the bear’s Rubicon, a line I drew at ES 2062 based on the most recent daily spike high. Nothing is ever impossible but unless we see an almost instant drop right here today this play is pretty much lost for the bears. Miracles happen but as of right now it seems they’ve run out of juice.

2015-01-23_spoos_briefing

Every handle higher from here now exponentially supports the bullish case. There is no harm in taking out a few lottery ticket shorts here but be aware that the odds are now vastly stacked against you. The hourly is looking pretty solid as well with the 25-hour SMA carrying price higher.

2015-01-23_NQ_briefing

I’m already long the NQ courtesy of Thor – and I distinctly remember how emotionally difficult taking this trade was on Wednesday. Just to make the point that none of us are ever immune to being biased, it’s a constant battle against one’s inner instincts. However if I wasn’t long already I would take one right here with a stop below the NLSL and the 25-hour SMA – let’s say near NQ 4240.

2015-01-23_copper_briefing

Otherwise I don’t see anything delectable this morning. The sole exception maybe being copper which doesn’t really offer an entry right now but it’s looking like it may start trending lower here.

The Dollar is on fire this morning and the EUR/USD touched 1.11 overnight, so I better head over to the ATM! The way things are heading I may just have one installed in my trading lair :-)

 

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Cheers,

Swiss Only Learn The Hard Way

If you just woke up and found your Forex account in flames then let me give you the skinny. The Swiss National Bank finally realized the errors of their currency pegging ways and decided to suddenly throw in the towel. Which of course triggered a massive dislocation across Forex markets as the Swiss Franc surged by 30pc. As I’m typing this the Swiss stock exchange is a sea of red dropping as much as 14%. Well done!

swiss_idiot

Now when I was a young kid traveling in Europe a Swiss train conductor kicked me out of the train in the middle of nowhere somewhere in the hinterlands of rural Italy because I couldn’t afford a pass for the sleep wagons (there were only sleep wagons on that train). Since that day I can’t stand the Swiss and for good reason. They are stubborn as heck and they only learn the hard way. And that’s coming from someone who actually went to Kindergarten there! I hope the SMI gets cut in half you cow tipping alphorn blowing wankers.

2015-01-15_EURUSD_briefing

So let’s observe the damage. Here’s the EUR/USD – dropped toward 1.15 and has recovered a bit of that first wipeout. Word has it that the Swiss will now have to sell a ton of Euros (at massive losses) and that probably means more downside on that front.

2015-01-15_EURCHF_briefing

Is that an ugly chart or what? EUR/CHF – back from whence we came back in 2011 when they screwed with everyone the first time around.

2015-01-15_dollar_briefing

Dollar got kicked in the head and then in the balls. I don’t recommend you pick any direction here at this point – let it settle down.

2015-01-15_spoos_briefing

U.S. equities rather tranquil in comparison. But look at all that volatility over the past few sessions. So far that support cluster appears to be holding however – the onus is now on the bears to take it lower. Today. If they can’t drag this sucker lower on a day like this they’re toast (again).

2015-01-15_gold_briefing

Gold update – jumped higher as should be expected. My entry at 2012 is starting to look solid now.

2015-01-15_crude_briefing

Crude is taking advantage of all the confusion and is trying to make a run for it – the 50 mark is in its sights. This would be a long/buy if it breaks the daily NLBL.

A few juicy setups below the fold – meet me in the lair:


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

The Falling Sword

I was just finishing to get suited up, locked and loaded, and before I know it the damn battle is already over. May have been better this way as the tape was leading us through mine fields today. Continued drops across the board except for the VIX, bonds, and the Dollar of course. Here we go – equities first:

2015-01-02_spoos_volume_profile

What started as a low volatility slide in late December picked up a bit more steam today as it filled that volume hole near 2050. We’ve got plenty of participation below that and thus far it’s acting as buying interest. Should that change then I think we drop to 2020, perhaps a few handles below.

2015-01-02_spoos_update

Early signs of trouble were two failures to overcome the 25-hour SMA which eventually resulted in a fast slide lower. Personally I have little desire to buy anything here just ahead of the weekend. So let’s just be patient and keep our powder dry for next week.

2015-01-02_crude_update

Bow to the dominion of the falling sword – my condolences to whoever was foolish enough to step under this one – word has it plenty of fund managers got manhandled here in the past week. Another text book example why you should run for the hills if you ever hear the words overbought or oversold.

No. Such. Thing.

It doesn’t matter where it’s been – all that matters is where it’s going. And right now it’s going DOWN. Deal with it – accept it – embrace the pain. Let price tell you when it’s ready to produce a floor. Sure, it may turn on a dime – but you really think you’re the one making that call? ;-)

One more falling sword example below the fold – please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

 




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    1. No Juice
    2. My New Best Friend
    3. Inflicting Maximum Pain
    4. Riding This Beast Into The Sunset
    5. Let’s Dive Right In
    6. Friday Morning Briefing
    7. Swiss Only Learn The Hard Way
    8. The Bus Is Empty
    9. Last Line Of Defense
    10. Strap On Your Helmets