A Sad Day For Greece

Don’t get me wrong I truly love seeing the Euro being crushed again this morning and it looks like Greece is going to remain a ongoing drag on both the European Currency Union as well as our already strained patience in the foreseeable future. Which means a weaker Euro paired with a slightly less weak Dollar produces a much more favorable exchange rate for the Mole.

Yet I can’t help myself feeling saddened having once again been proven right. Game theory suggested all along that a Greek exit from the EU would not be beneficial to either party, despite all the saber rattling and brinksmanship we’ve been witnessing in the MSM over the past few weeks (months/years…). Still – to witness Greece capitulate completely in the final hour and sell out its sovereignty to a global collective of banksters was a bit heart wrenching, even for this callous market megalomaniac. I can only hope the Spaniards and Portuguese are paying careful attention and will do what it takes to stave off such a sad state of affairs.

2015-07-13_spoos_briefing

Clearly equity traders are elated as this means more QE is almost guaranteed. The spoos finally filled a gap that was in place for 12 sessions. Although I believe that this is most likely going to continue higher I am currently short with a stop near 2090. It’s a low probability idea which however could pay off well – 1/4R only.

2015-07-13_NQ_briefing

The other 1/4R went to the NQ – same idea here. It’s actually weaker as it hasn’t quite filled its gap yet. May happen later today of course. In both cases I would consider a long position after a stop out. But it depends on the velocity of the move. And even then I’d only throw chump change at this campaign as I simply can’t justify participating in equities in a serious fashion at this point. It was a ridiculous chart three months ago which since has advanced to a spasmodic mess that would have Jackson Pollock go green with envy (and he’d probably throw in a few more colors).

2015-07-13_USDCAD_briefing_free

USD/CAD – now here’s a chart I can sink my teeth into. I’m waiting for a wee bit push higher so that I can short it near that diagonal I painted. Triggers are on the chart and I would have little compunction to flip for a long position after a stop out.

UPDATE 9:50am EDT: USD/CAD shot higher so fast I didn’t get short OR long. Bummer…

More FX fun below the fold – grab your secret decoder ring and join me in the lair.


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See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

prussian

Picking Up Pennies Behind Steamrollers

The Ozzie RBA announced their interest rate decision early this morning when you seppo rats were still in deep slumber. Not much of a surprise move really – the expectation was 2% and that’s exactly what we got.

2015-07-07_events

Now Skynard and his impetuous ilk hailing from their respective lairs down under seem to prefer doing the chicken dance in front of the Ozzie steam roller. Did anyone read my post yesterday on not taking risky setups in this volatile market phase? Dr. Kurtosis will make you guys his bitch one of these days. Why do I bother…

Now, as you know I myself enjoy preying on disorientated victims after the storm has passed.  Yes, that’s right – I kick them while they’re down and I do it with pride. Excuse me – which part of Evil Speculator wasn’t clear to you?

Before we start let’s once again point out that all the AUD related setups below should not expose you to a loss of more than 1.5% of your account equity. In other words – if you take more than one please split one R between them. Now let’s see what we got on the menu this morning:

2015-07-07_AUDNZD_briefing

Here’s the AUD/NZD and it’s in a very interesting spot as the 25-day is being challenged. I’m currently long but will flip for a short if it drops through 1.118.

2015-07-07_AUDCHF_briefing

AUD/CHF – playing the bounce and my stop is below 0.7012. If I get my way I’ll be out near the 100-hour SMA.

Two more setups looming below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

The Big Furball

Equities have clearly been one big nasty furball over the past few weeks. You remember me writing about this weeks ago already and with the exception of one quick fake out higher we have reversed back into sideways shake out territory. Tough going here but to me it seems like we are either witnessing massive accumulation or distribution over the past few weeks. I’ve touched on that about a month ago and the fact that conditions have remained since then tells me that whatever comes next is going to be significant.

2015-06-02_spoos_briefing

Which means my modus operandi has been one of taking calculated risks near potential inflection points. On the E-Mini we are sloping lower slowly but seem to be jumping higher occasionally to shake out as many participants as possible. And that means I cannot enter here – neither long nor short. Well perhaps long if we were near the recent spike low. But I’ve got a much better entry and I’m posting it for the subs below.

2015-06-02_gold_briefing

Gold is very juicy here – I’m grabbing a long with a stop below the NLSL which also happens to be near that diagonal I drew. Clearly a short position below this is a possibility but tough going – those daily NLSLs  (right panel) won’t give way easily.

2015-06-02_GBPCAD_briefing

GBP/CAD – very nice context developing but so far no resolution. I’m long here with a top below 1.898.

2015-06-02_soybeans_update

Soybeans update – nice entry yesterday and I came very close to being stopped out. Moving my stop up to break/even now. If it wants to get going then now is probably the time.

2015-06-02_Natgas_update

I also grabbed natgas yesterday – so far so good but I’m leaving my stop in place as we haven’t moved anywhere yet. But the longer we remain those ST NLBLs the higher the chance for a stab higher. Volatility should set in here in the near future.

2015-06-02_AUDCHF_update

AUD/CHF is also still nibbling on it. Keeping my stop where I left it.


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Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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