Campaign Updates

I’ve accumulated a good number of positions over the past week and decided to not take on anything more for the day. We still haven’t really taken off across major indices and in line with my adjusted modus operandi of remaining nimble I don’t want to get over exposed. So let’s do a quick run down of some of our recent victims:


The spoos thus far are looking good to go and I’m moving my stop to 2112 now which is at break/even.


AUD/USD – that’s a campaign I’ve been holding since last week. It somehow rolled over nail or something as it went completely flat and rolled back to the downside. Stop out at my trailing stop for a humble 1R profit.


AUD/CAD – boy that was an awesome entry this morning right before it took off like a rocket. Moving my stop to break even and will hold through the RBA minutes in about seven hours.


EUR/CAD – also one from this morning. I say meh here and this one may actually stop out. I love the formation on the daily but it was probably too early to try a long position. I only have 1/3R in this one so I’m holding it.


EUR/GBP – stopped out of this morning’s ST position. The original entry form last week is still good and my stop remains at break even. Not really loving the mojo on this one to be honest but I’m holding it.


Cable – a few more pips to the downside and I’ll be out of that one. I was hoping for a LKGB here but it kept dropping below the 100-hour SMA. Bummer really as this is a great setup and I would take it every single time. Perhaps we’ll get another chance at the daily NLSL further below.


USD/CHF – awesome entry here this morning and I’m moving my stop to break even.


Wheat – for some reason this one screamed continuation at me this morning. Very few traders would have taken a long after that long candle last week. Great entry and I’m obviously holding it although I’m pretty sure there will be a LKGB retest of the 100-day. Moving my stop to break/even and Bob’s my uncle.

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Monday Morning Briefing

We’ve got movement folks! Apparently things are coming into sync across the board and we’ve got a veritable laundry list of setups this morning. Time to get busy.


Here’s the USD/CHF – still looking weak but attempting to paint a floor. Only 1/4R here with a stop below that recent Net-Line Sell Level.


Wheat – boy what a run and it’s now bumping against it’s long time nemesis – the 100-day SMA. I think the right play is to follow those ST Net-Lines but to be short below the lower 25-hour BB.


Bonds are looking primed and ready to rock & roll – five year bond futures retesting the 100-day SMA but I’m taking my cues from the short term panel. Long on a little dip lower with a stop below the lower 25-hour BB.


ZT, the two year bond futures – long here with a stop below that recent spike low.

Quite a bit more below the fold – please meet me in the lair:

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Boy what an avalanche of setups! That ought to keep you guys busy for a while. See you all later this afternoon.


You Snooze You Lose

Just last night before the close I encouraged you guys to start paying attention as we were pushing near important inflection points across the board. And not only that – I backed up my outlandish claims via a laundry list of juicy short term setups, offering cheap seats on very promising daily campaigns. So let’s see what happened overnight:


Starting off with the most insignificant sector right now – equities. Back to the woodshed it is unfortunately and this chart is now starting to resemble Dr. Zeus’ worst nightmare. Temporary backstops here are the lower 100-hour BB near 2090, the daily NLSL at 2087 and if that fails we may hold near the 25-hour SMA at 2080. I for one am not too eager to throw any coin into anything related to equities right now. But that may change as soon, so let’s not get complacent here either.


AUD/USD – it seems like the evil market goddess favored my nefarious plans as I got what I would call a perfect entry, just as planned. I am definitely making this a daily campaign – stop now at break/even.


AUD/CAD – got extremely lucky here as well. Not so much by my entry but that I escaped stop out by a tick or two. Also staying in this campaign but am taking partial profits here. – clearly there will be a bit of a shake out after such a push outside the hourly BBs.


EUR/CAD – so far so good and my stop is now at break/even. Nothing else to be done here right now.


EUR/USD – incredibly I also got my 1.086 entry here. Better to be lucky than good I guess… Much to my chagrin of course and right after I’m done typing this I’ll head to the ATM to pull out a bit more cash. Looks like this may turn into a runner and head to 1.13. I’m not liking it but this is a pretty good hedge.


EUR/JPY – good entry as well and we are in good shape.


NZD/USD – looking good here! Stop still at break/even.


Copper is the one laggard of the bunch and I got stopped out at break/even – big deal.

Words To The Wise

Over the past few years I have been experiencing this phenomenon over and over again. The tape is pushing sideways and people are banging their heads against the wall for weeks on end, against my usual advice to lay low and to keep one’s powder dry. The board is starting to resemble a ghost town with large tumble weeds rolling through the comment section. Everyone is worn out and nobody is paying attention as recency bias rules the general outlook. Of course this is exactly when you need to pull yourself together and start looking for early signs of a break out move. You may get it wrong once or twice but as the bus empties by the day the odds for a big move are increasing as BBs have contracted and the tape is coiled up like a snake.

And almost every single time only a small minority here snaps into action and does what needs to be done. As Ed Seykota once put it so aptly: “A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do.”

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