You Snooze You Lose

Just last night before the close I encouraged you guys to start paying attention as we were pushing near important inflection points across the board. And not only that – I backed up my outlandish claims via a laundry list of juicy short term setups, offering cheap seats on very promising daily campaigns. So let’s see what happened overnight:


Starting off with the most insignificant sector right now – equities. Back to the woodshed it is unfortunately and this chart is now starting to resemble Dr. Zeus’ worst nightmare. Temporary backstops here are the lower 100-hour BB near 2090, the daily NLSL at 2087 and if that fails we may hold near the 25-hour SMA at 2080. I for one am not too eager to throw any coin into anything related to equities right now. But that may change as soon, so let’s not get complacent here either.


AUD/USD – it seems like the evil market goddess favored my nefarious plans as I got what I would call a perfect entry, just as planned. I am definitely making this a daily campaign – stop now at break/even.


AUD/CAD – got extremely lucky here as well. Not so much by my entry but that I escaped stop out by a tick or two. Also staying in this campaign but am taking partial profits here. – clearly there will be a bit of a shake out after such a push outside the hourly BBs.


EUR/CAD – so far so good and my stop is now at break/even. Nothing else to be done here right now.


EUR/USD – incredibly I also got my 1.086 entry here. Better to be lucky than good I guess… Much to my chagrin of course and right after I’m done typing this I’ll head to the ATM to pull out a bit more cash. Looks like this may turn into a runner and head to 1.13. I’m not liking it but this is a pretty good hedge.


EUR/JPY – good entry as well and we are in good shape.


NZD/USD – looking good here! Stop still at break/even.


Copper is the one laggard of the bunch and I got stopped out at break/even – big deal.

Words To The Wise

Over the past few years I have been experiencing this phenomenon over and over again. The tape is pushing sideways and people are banging their heads against the wall for weeks on end, against my usual advice to lay low and to keep one’s powder dry. The board is starting to resemble a ghost town with large tumble weeds rolling through the comment section. Everyone is worn out and nobody is paying attention as recency bias rules the general outlook. Of course this is exactly when you need to pull yourself together and start looking for early signs of a break out move. You may get it wrong once or twice but as the bus empties by the day the odds for a big move are increasing as BBs have contracted and the tape is coiled up like a snake.

And almost every single time only a small minority here snaps into action and does what needs to be done. As Ed Seykota once put it so aptly: “A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do.”

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Time To Start Paying Attention

I’m sensing an increasing amount of mental exhaustion right here in the comment section. I can’t really blame you as it’s perfectly natural to start feeling frustrated after several weeks of sideways volatile market conditions across all four verticals (i.e. equities, bonds, forex, futures). However – I think I have done a pretty good job of keeping you guys out of trouble, plus things are slowly coming into sync here. I can’t promise that we’re at the cusp of a new (and hopefully more directional) market phase – but judging from the roster of setups waiting in the bullpen below I think it’s time to start paying attention again. So let’s get to it!


Boy did I have it wrong on the E-Mini this morning – my prognosis was that we’d hit the ground running after around 2115 but as soon as it happened the tape turned on a dime. I did however anticipate the possibility of a last kiss goodbye move to the downside, so if you catch the Es near its 100-hour SMA then a small long entry has pretty decent odds. If 2103 fails then we may be dealing with a false break out and that means we’re back in hell for another week or two.


Copper campaign update – great entry this morning and she’s looking hot! Moving my stop to break/even now.


NZD/USD – even better entry and my evil plan seems to be unfolding as planned. Also moving my stop to break/even here.


USD/CHF – now that was interesting! That blue line signifies the daily NLBL at 0.9493. I grabbed a long position right after that touch and my ISL remains below 0.9493. Still early in the game however and we could see another drop lower.


We got a ton of juicy looking setups today – here’s the EUR/USD which (much to my chagrin) appears to be bent on pushing higher. I am waiting to grab a long near 1.086 with a stop below 1.0818.


AUD/CAD – long here with a stop below 0.9475. Definitely like that formation on the daily.

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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Make That Money

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.


Forex and the futures are on fire this morning, so let’s do this. EUR/CAD – good long here with ISL below 1.413, be generous with your stop.


Silver – it’s still shiny and I like it long right here with a stop below 15.93. Below that I’ll be short but it’s not my favorite direction as the downside seems more limited.

You want more? Better pay up and join the club – leeches only get to see the tip of the iceberg ;-)

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed. Now go and make that money money money!


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