The Reckoning

For months now we have been watching equities flail around sideways, plotting increasingly spasmodic gyrations which have tested the patience of even the most battle hardened veterans. The recent series of gaps and overnight price jumps have only added to our growing list of evidence suggesting that we are witnessing an increasingly unhinged market. Adjusting to and surviving unscathed in such market conditions has been no easy task but I can truly say that we have negotiated some of the most challenging tape in years like bosses.

2015-07-15_weekly_spoos

But now the time of reckoning approaches and I want you all to take a deep breath, lean back, and detach yourself from daily chaos that has thrown your feeble minds into recurring tailspins. We are going to look at some weekly charts because it is there where some real magic is going to happen in the coming days. Let’s start with the S&P E-Mini futures.

First thing that stands out is that we haven’t really gone anywhere since late last year. I’ve covered that topic to exhaustion and will not waste our time on regurgitating this again. Volatility has been out of control and the current VIX reading of 13.37 is a big joke. One I plan to exploit to the max however. Look at that stack of weekly Net-Line Buy Levels which starts at ES 2113 and ends at ES 2122 – we also have one at ES 2118.

This is where the boys are going to separate from the men. Meaning – if we get anywhere near that I plan to accumulate a nice collection of front month lottery tickets (a.k.a. OTM puts). They are not going to cost me much and I will expect to lose all the premium. However at the off chance that the bulls drop the ball there – which I estimate at around 20% – 30% – they are going to print ‘una burrada de dinero’ as they say over here in Spain.

2015-07-15_YM_weekly

So yes, we are talking lottery tickets. Here’s the same view on the YM – the range between the Net-Lines on that one is actually a bit more narrow starting at 18089 into 18180 – barely 100 YM handles.

2015-07-15_NQ_weekly

Finally the NQ – here we are almost there which is why it probably should be our canary in the coal-mine.

I promise you it will take days for you to get that song out of your head again ;-)

But seriously – watch the NQ and note what it does as it’s starting to bump into those Net-Lines starting at NQ 4536. If it happily pushes higher then we should hold off and perhaps wait for new instructions. If it stumbles and encounters resistance then we may have a shot at exploiting what I would consider the fattest chance for the bears in a long long time.

2015-07-15_ZN_update

ZN Update – it’s looking good so far and I’ve moved my stop to break/even. And so should you! I’m holding this for a potential run higher on the daily – which makes this a daily campaign now.

2015-07-15_AUDNZD_update

Same idea on the AUD/NZD – another good entry yesterday and thus far it’s playing ball. First hurdle ahead will be 1.2 – if it pushes above it we may be able to enjoy another short squeeze.

A few more goodies for my intrepid subs below the fold:


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2015-07-15_events

A bit of event risk today – try to be out of CAD related pairs after the NYSE open. We also nave some Kiwi tremors after the close.

Now have fun but keep it frosty.

Cheers,

Freaky Forex Fun

Frankly the tape across the board is giving me a headache and judging by the participation in the comment section you’re either on vacation (and thus not reading this) or are sharing my general sentiment. My gold long was just taken to the woodshed and I don’t see much else on the futures front that captures my fancy.

However some of the Euro pairs are looking interesting this morning and I’m playing a few freaky forex candidates with 1/2R position sizes.

2015-06-24_EURJPY_briefing

EUR/JPY – quite a bit of support there on the daily and I’m grabbing a late long position with a stop below 138.455. Wish I would have seen this one last night to be honest but the recent retest lower makes this a respectable entry.

2015-06-24_EURGBP_briefing

EUR/GBP – one of my favorites today – long here with a stop below 0.708. If we drop through it I won’t flip for a short position – that was my initial thought but in retrospect there is too much momo support on the daily.


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I hope I don’t need to point out that you should split your exposure between the EUR pairs you are grabbing. Correlation can really slap you in the face and if the start going against us they’ll do it in unison.

Cheers,

 

Wait For VWAP!

A few of the hardcore rats and yours evil truly watched the Zero like a hawk this morning and thus managed to squeeze in a few longs near 2076. I take it most of you guys weren’t that adventurous (and most aren’t Zero subs) so here’s your next best chance to grab some long exposure:

2015-06-09_zero

Alright, here’s the script on how to play this: First you most definitely wait for a VWAP retest. Don’t chase it and wait until you see the white in their eyes. Most likely they’ll have some fun with it and attempt to scare the children a little with dip below VWAP. If you see price recover there or kind of hang around until near the end of the session, then a handful of long exposure may be good medicine.

BTW, this entry is by no means guaranteed. The bulls will have to run hard here in order to avoid a slip off the proverbial plate. We’ve seen an accumulation of quite a bit of technical damage over the past few months. That said – IF there will be a bounce then the odds here are as good as they’ll be for a long while.

2015-06-09_EURJPY_update

EUR/JPY update – I grabbed some adventurous longs near the 100-hour SMA yesterday and so far it’s looking very productive. Today we got a retest of my original entry but it seems to be holding.

2015-06-09_gold_setup

Gold – awesome awesome long term entry here today and I can’t believe I’m giving this one away. I’m long right now with a stop at 1174. Below that I’ll be short as I consider that its current Maginot line.

Two more juicy ones below the fold – subs only:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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It’s now 2:44pm Eastern and it doesn’t seem like you guys are going to get your VWAP test before the close. Which is why I post a morning update! Make sure you catch it next time! Hope to see you in the morning ;-)

UPDATE 4:30pm Eastern: Looks like I was dead wrong about not getting the VWAP test. May actually die in its cradle right here. Well, let’s see what the close brings….

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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