Trading The House Down

It’s been an extremely pleasant day here at my make shift West Coast lair. It’s the first day of spring and of course the weather once again is awesome in Los Angeles with temperatures in the mid 70s only interrupted by a few fluffy clouds here and there. Meanwhile it’s been super cold over in Spain and of course I don’t miss any opportunity to rub it in when sending vacation pics to my buddies in Valencia.


But not only that – while I have been busy shopping and running errands all over Los Angeles I somehow managed to trade the house down this week. The NQ campaign I posted yesterday morning alone booked full 8R at this point – it’s 16 but I only took 1/2% position size so it’s a bit over 8% thus far. I am advancing my stop to 4448 and just let it run all through next week. May I point out that this was one juicy entry as I pinned the very low of yesterday’s session.


Crude – I was almost about to pull this one today but luckily was too busy packing. Exited now with a juicy 2R profit.


Soybeans – also exited this one with a 2R profit. If you are in this one you may want to hold it as I think it has legs. The Mole however is going to be enjoying some much needed R&R in Mexico, thus holding a ton of positions during vacations is generally not a good idea.


EUR/CAD – just exited for 1R.


AUD/USD has banked me 2R as well I’m holding this one with a trailing stop.


And finally EUR/USD – also banked 2R here and I’m advancing my stop to 1.075.


In related news CrazyIvan has now breached the 100R mark as it now stands at a total of 105 – accomplished in 15 months with around 2500 campaigns. That’s a heck of a lot of trades but even given the crappiest b/a spreads and/or commissions it amounts to about a 150% gain considering compounding. I am very much looking forward to auto-trading CrazyIvan with a small select group of investors later this year. FYI – this is a closed group of people I know, so please do not contact me about participating. But you are always free to sign up for the signal if you can commit to three roll-overs each day (7:am/15:00pm/11:00pm Eastern).


And that’s it for the Mole for the next 10 days as I’m heading to Puerto Vallarta, Mexico tomorrow afternoon. The pic above shows my view from the little casa we rented all the way on top of the hills. If I can’t forget about trading in that place then there’s no hope for me. Not only am I in desperate need for a real vacation but given today’s profits alone I think I more than earned it – I really hope you caught some of those juicy entries as well. In my absence Scott ‘The Convict’ Phillips has generously offered to take over here at the lair, so I trust you are in experienced hands. In case you are wondering, during my absence all subscription services will continue to run as usual. If you need help with anything feel free to shoot me an email but please allow a bit more time than usual for a response.


¡Hasta Luego!

El Topo

Easy Prey

Yesterday I mused about my habit of sitting through panic spikes only to pick out easy prey once the dust settles. Well, today is that day and as we have plenty of juicy candidates limping past us we better get organized. This is it folks – time to get busy!


The spoos retraced quite a bit of yesterday’s advance and currently we are hanging somewhere in the middle of nowhere. No entry here unless we drop lower and touch 2065.


The NQ however ain’t a bad long here with a stop below 4410.


EUR/USD – as much as I love it back at 1.06, as a trader I just have to take a long here with a stop below the 100-hour SMA. If it drops below that then I win as well once I’m back in VLC.


Gold is looking like solid here and if it holds this NLBL we should be primed to pump higher. You have a choice between putting your ISL below that hourly NLSL or the 100-hour SMA.

Plenty more waiting below the fold – please step into my West Coast lair:

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Bonus Chart!


Strangely today’s momentum/participation is twice of what we saw yesterday in the ramp higher. Alright, tthat ought to keep you guys busy for a while – I’m grabbing breakfast now. Trading on the West Coast sucks – but I love the weather and the eye candy.


Long Term Update

It’s been a while and today seems like a good day to catch up with our long term charts. In general it seems like we have touched major lows in various key markets – most importantly on the Euro and crude front. The former much to my chagrin of course – how much I have enjoyed the favorable exchange rate and I’m not looking forward to seeing that change. Alright, let’s cover some major symbols, starting with equities of course:


The long term panels on the S&P futures look in pretty good shape at this point, however it seems that we remain pinned below our weekly NLBL at ES 2088.75. It would be preferable to overcome this one by tomorrow as it would issue a weekly buy, thus almost guaranteeing new highs and a final departure from a two month trading range spanning over 100 handles.


The SPX point and figure however shows a lot of positive evidence – in particular I like that support cluster near 1990 which in the future should provide some very solid support during any attempts to drag equities lower. On the long term chart we already have strong context courtesy of the 25-week SMA which has been attacked several times in the past months but managed to remain intact. However I must point out that this is the first horizontal defense line in a long time – which means the trend is weakening and most likely in its late stages.

In summary the bulls remain large and in charge here and if you’re holding long term then there is no reason to second guess the advance, despite all the bearish musings across the financial media and blogosphere. Yes, the bulls were in big trouble a few weeks ago but managed to throw a last minute Hail Mary. So far it’s working and until we see signs of exhaustion again the bear goes back into hibernation. He had his chance and he blew it.


Gold looked like it was ready for take off and then suddenly deflated like a French soufflé. Quite frankly the gold bugs are in big trouble here and if we breach through that 100-week SMA and below the NLSL at 1130 there’s no telling how low it’ll go.


The P&F totally agrees it seems as the bullish PO is still a possibility but signals a high pole reversal warning which is about to turn into a sell signal. The gold bugs are on notice here and perhaps in a few days we’ll have a chance to take out a few lottery tickets to the long side. As I said – below 1130 we may just fall off the plate. Until that happens the long side is worth a shot as I expect 1130 to be defended fiercely.

More LT musings below the fold – please join me in the lair:

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


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