Chop Chop Til You Drop

I’ve had a mini epiphany today just browsing through my universe of charts across bonds, equities, the futures, and even forex. In plain simple words – we are in the midst of a high volatility sideways market period right now. And that means that directional campaigns simply won’t work. You may get away with grabbing a good entry but just as you’re ready to reap the benefits the tape turns on a dime and stops you out. This has happened across several campaigns over the past two weeks but the incident rate is increasing. Which means it’s time to adjust our trading to the tape. In this particular case it means keeping entries to a bare minimum – personally I get extremely picky and reduce position sizing to a minimum during these types of market periods.

2015-04-20_spoos_update

So let’s look at some evidence supporting my outlandish claims. You guys have seen this chart on several occasions and I’m not going to explain it again. Clearly we are in a sideways range. A few days ago it looked like we may defy gravity and take off but it wasn’t to be. At this point the only context worth its salt is the 25-day SMA and even that one is way too precarious to afford us swing entries. I am staying the heck out of this one for now. If we push to the extremes I may take an inverse entry with a small position size. But I’m really not obsessed with having to trade equities frankly – happy to let this thing play out and revisit in a few weeks.

2015-04-20_GBPUSD_update

Cable – part of the story for sure – just look at the daily panel on the right. That’s one nasty trading range with a lot of long wicks. Meaning stop runs galore and only recently have we seen a bit more directional tape.

2015-04-20_EURUSD_update

The EUR/USD has gone nowhere fast int he past month. Thus far it seems like the 1.05 mark may wind up a long term low but the fat lady hasn’t sung here just yet. This is starting to resemble a real low however – the next few days should be interesting, but for now I’m not taking entires in the middle of the ongoing trading range.

2015-04-20_gold_update

Gold – just peeking at the ST panel is making me dizzy. The daily ain’t much better – once again we seem to be stuck in a sideways range below the 100-day SMA. However, the 25-day is now on the rise and if I see decent ST context in the morning I may be convinced to take a long position here.

2015-04-20_ZB_update

Bonds – just nasty – don’t even ask me when this thing is going to resolve. No interest in participating here.

2015-04-20_crude_update

Crude is the one exception which in the context of the ongoing LT campaign is extremely promising. We got really lucky here when taking our entry and I’m rather conservative with advancing my trailing stop.

2015-04-20_GBPJPY_update

Early morning setup update: GBP/JPY was one of the few charts that actually triggered and didn’t hit its stop shortly after. However I’m long inside a downside trend on the daily chart – my expectations here are extremely low and I’ve advanced my stop to the break/even point. It’s a small position anyway but alas.

No new entries for the day – time to hunker down and keep one’s powder dry.

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Cheers,

Trading The House Down

It’s been an extremely pleasant day here at my make shift West Coast lair. It’s the first day of spring and of course the weather once again is awesome in Los Angeles with temperatures in the mid 70s only interrupted by a few fluffy clouds here and there. Meanwhile it’s been super cold over in Spain and of course I don’t miss any opportunity to rub it in when sending vacation pics to my buddies in Valencia.

2015-03-20_NQ_update

But not only that – while I have been busy shopping and running errands all over Los Angeles I somehow managed to trade the house down this week. The NQ campaign I posted yesterday morning alone booked full 8R at this point – it’s 16 but I only took 1/2% position size so it’s a bit over 8% thus far. I am advancing my stop to 4448 and just let it run all through next week. May I point out that this was one juicy entry as I pinned the very low of yesterday’s session.

2015-03-20_CL_update

Crude – I was almost about to pull this one today but luckily was too busy packing. Exited now with a juicy 2R profit.

2015-03-20_ZS_update

Soybeans – also exited this one with a 2R profit. If you are in this one you may want to hold it as I think it has legs. The Mole however is going to be enjoying some much needed R&R in Mexico, thus holding a ton of positions during vacations is generally not a good idea.

2015-03-20_EURCAD_update

EUR/CAD – just exited for 1R.

2015-03-20_AUDUSD

AUD/USD has banked me 2R as well I’m holding this one with a trailing stop.

2015-03-20_EURUSD_update

And finally EUR/USD – also banked 2R here and I’m advancing my stop to 1.075.

2015-03-20_CrazyIvan_PL

In related news CrazyIvan has now breached the 100R mark as it now stands at a total of 105 – accomplished in 15 months with around 2500 campaigns. That’s a heck of a lot of trades but even given the crappiest b/a spreads and/or commissions it amounts to about a 150% gain considering compounding. I am very much looking forward to auto-trading CrazyIvan with a small select group of investors later this year. FYI – this is a closed group of people I know, so please do not contact me about participating. But you are always free to sign up for the signal if you can commit to three roll-overs each day (7:am/15:00pm/11:00pm Eastern).

2015-03-20_CrazyIvan_PL

And that’s it for the Mole for the next 10 days as I’m heading to Puerto Vallarta, Mexico tomorrow afternoon. The pic above shows my view from the little casa we rented all the way on top of the hills. If I can’t forget about trading in that place then there’s no hope for me. Not only am I in desperate need for a real vacation but given today’s profits alone I think I more than earned it – I really hope you caught some of those juicy entries as well. In my absence Scott ‘The Convict’ Phillips has generously offered to take over here at the lair, so I trust you are in experienced hands. In case you are wondering, during my absence all subscription services will continue to run as usual. If you need help with anything feel free to shoot me an email but please allow a bit more time than usual for a response.

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¡Hasta Luego!

El Topo

Easy Prey

Yesterday I mused about my habit of sitting through panic spikes only to pick out easy prey once the dust settles. Well, today is that day and as we have plenty of juicy candidates limping past us we better get organized. This is it folks – time to get busy!

2015-03-19_spoos_update

The spoos retraced quite a bit of yesterday’s advance and currently we are hanging somewhere in the middle of nowhere. No entry here unless we drop lower and touch 2065.

2015-03-19_NQ_update

The NQ however ain’t a bad long here with a stop below 4410.

2015-03-19_EURUSD_setup

EUR/USD – as much as I love it back at 1.06, as a trader I just have to take a long here with a stop below the 100-hour SMA. If it drops below that then I win as well once I’m back in VLC.

2015-03-19_gold_setup

Gold is looking like solid here and if it holds this NLBL we should be primed to pump higher. You have a choice between putting your ISL below that hourly NLSL or the 100-hour SMA.

Plenty more waiting below the fold – please step into my West Coast lair:


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Bonus Chart!

2015-03-19_zero

Strangely today’s momentum/participation is twice of what we saw yesterday in the ramp higher. Alright, tthat ought to keep you guys busy for a while – I’m grabbing breakfast now. Trading on the West Coast sucks – but I love the weather and the eye candy.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Thar She Blows!
    2. Thursday Morning Briefing
    3. Told You
    4. Make That Money
    5. Sideways High Impulsive Tape
    6. Tuesday Morning Briefing
    7. Chop Chop Til You Drop
    8. Monday Morning Briefing
    9. Chasing The Market’s Tail
    10. Still In The Game