Strap On Your Helmets

Fasten your seat belts and strap on your trading helmets – it’s going to be a rough day! I was chatting with Scott this morning and his take on the whole Ruble/Fed/Crude situation was “Anything and everything can happen today.” Exactly right but that makes for shabby blog posts, so let me try to shed at least a little light on what we’re heading into:

predator_helmet

I’m actually considering to get myself one of those predator helmets – super bad ass. Would look pretty silly on the little moto I’ve been using here in Valencia. Perhaps better to get a Ducati first. No worries – very safe bike as Mrs. Evil would never let me ride it – she has seen the stunts I pull in traffic.

2014-12-17_events

Okay, this is the laundry list of event risk we’re up against today, starting at 8:30am with the CPI numbers for November. I don’t think it’s going to matter as much as the Fed interest rate decision. Don’t expect much movement on the equities side until Yellen’s announcement.

2014-12-17_spoos_briefing

So far we’ve seen nothing but lower highs and lower lows, with two attempts to overcome the 100-hour SMA. The game has been played however and today’s resolution will come after 2:30pm – brutal and inflicting as much damage as possible.

Frankly speaking – as tantalizing as the situation may be here, it’s a very tough trade unless you are on the inside. It’s a coin flip and it’s fine to take out a lottery ticket unless you risk more than 1R. Options are impossible here given where we already are on the VIX front – so screw the vega play (unless you’re selling but let’s not go there). I’m going to stay out of this one – sorry – cyclone level conditions like these are beyond my pay grade.

2014-12-17_EURUSD_briefing

EUR/USD is the only setup I like this morning but given what’s going on I’m only in it for 1/3R – AND I’m hoping to be stopped out as the rising Euro is a big thorn in this expat’s eye. ISL actually below 1.242 – I changed my mind after realizing the flood of events we’re facing today. So it’s really just a teeny weeny play and chances are it’s going to get shaken out.

Bottom Line: Plenty of excitement in the works today but very little entry opportunities. I’m keeping a bucket of popcorn ready and see how it resolves. Forget about support levels on the equities side – if 1955 goes for whatever reason today then we’re dropping to 1900 like a rock. Similarly, if rates are being kept lower than anticipated then we should see a massive jump. Word on the street says that Yellen is not going to mess with the state’s department’s plan to declaw Putin once and for all. But I’m not going to bet money on macro economics/politics, leaving that for people smarter (and more connected) than me.

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Cheers,

Under The Weather

So I was starting to feel better on Saturday when I made the mistake to head to the gym and hit it hard. I started to feel super exhausted on Sunday morning and woke up today with a cold. As you can imagine I’m pretty miffed about myself – it was supposed to rain Sunday and Monday (and it did), which is why tested my luck and went to the gym in the first place. Did I ever mention I absolutely loath winter?

2014-12-15_spoos_briefing

It’s funny how the bears are always pining for massive corrections which they most of the time are unable to participate in. It’s not just that large scale corrections only happen perhaps 5% of the time – it’s also that they are extremely difficult to ride out. Just look at the gyrations on our hourly chart. Up – down – up – down. Almost every retracement is recovered and stops are run in both directions. This is usually how it goes except for the big (third wave – cough cough) wipe out somewhere in the middle.

Right now the spoos are at the 25-hour which only represents soft resistance. However if you are looking for a good place to be short then this is probably as good as it’ll get. If equities continue higher from here then we are looking at a much more complex formation and who knows how the rest of December is going to flow. The second hurdle is obviously the 100-hour at around 2025. So these are the two inflection points right now: 2010 and if that goes 2025.

2014-12-15_DX_briefing

The Dollar is looking weak this morning and I grabbed a tiny short position here with a stop at 88.9. The reason why I’m risking it is because of what I’m seeing on the Euro:


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Cheers,

Friday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2014-12-05_EURUSD_briefing

After yesterday’s surprise spiker higher the EUR/USD  is still clinging to its 100-hour but may just fall away today. However, if it manages to crawl back above the 100-hour I’ll be long with a stop below the NLBL at 1.237. Short positions are possible here but it’s possible that we’ll just gyrate around directionless for a while, so I’ll give that one a miss.

2014-12-05_ZB_briefing

Bonds – the 30-year is done re-testing the 100-hour (well, barely) and on a push above the NLBL I’ll throw 1/2 R to the bond market wolves. Stop below 141’20.


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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    1. Strap On Your Helmets
    2. When There’s Blood In The Streets
    3. Monthly Support
    4. Thrashed
    5. Under The Weather
    6. Not A Game For Adrenaline Junkies
    7. I’m Buying
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