Setups Setups Setups!

It’s going to be a busy morning as setups are crawling out of the woodworks and everything must go! On the equities side further weakness overnight has brought us to the first real hurdle:

2015-07-22_spoos_briefing

That daily Net-Line Sell Level at 2102.75 is one of three that should start slowing momentum a bit. If we manage to push above 2106.75 then I’ll grab a few long positions with a stop below the recent spike low (wherever that’ll be).

2015-07-22_ZN_briefing

Bonds – I got kicked out of ZB the other day by just a few ticks which was highly annoying but it happens in the best families. The hourly NLBL breach here on the 10-year contract was good enough reason for me to try another stab at this. Conservative stop below the 100-hour SMa.

2015-07-22_AUDJPY_briefing

AUD/JPY – what’s to be said here – long of course with a stop a few pips below the 100-hour BB.

2015-07-22_EURCAD_update

EUR/CAD update – unlike ZN that one stuck with the script and I’m moving my stop to 1.414 now. You may recall that I am waiting for it to switch into trend mode. We are close but not there just yet.

We’re just getting warmed up – more setups below the fold:


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Decent participation here in recent days, given that it’s mid summer and all – keep it up steel rats!

Cheers,

cheesy

Time To Bitch Slap Old Bucky

The Fed is pretty much running out of options at this point. Their current modus operandi is to continue pretending that they want to raise rates but without real intentions of doing it anytime soon. Every month we are being served another paltry excuse as to why they’re still hesitant or that they’ll assess their timing based on the economic data. Perhaps next time it’s the humidity or waiting for the moon’s phase to line up properly.

Which means that among the few tools remaining in their arsenal to to keep equities afloat is to stomp on the Dollar once it approaches escape velocity. And given the Greek drama the timing couldn’t be any better to stick it to those dreaded Dollar bulls. And that’s going to be our theme of the day. Not because I say so but because quite a few USD related Forex symbols have moved into sync over the past few hours.

2015-07-09_EURUSD_briefing

For starters I’m grabbing a long here on the EUR/USD with a stop below the recent spike low. If the 100-hour can’t be held then we’re going to see quite a bit more sideways churn or perhaps even a revisit of the recent lows.

2015-07-09_AUDUSD_briefing

AUD/USD is looking pretty juicy here as well and I’m long with a stop below its recent spike low. Also nice to see the daily far outside the 100-day BB. Now it’s still early days here but if this thing bounces it’s high time – if it doesn’t manage a reversal here it may fall off the plate and turn into a trend trade to the short side. So short positions on a stop out may be possible here.

2015-07-09_spoos_briefing

The E-Mini isn’t among my favorite charts right now but if I don’t talk about it you guys are most likely to ride me out of the lair on a rail. So here you go – a possible long setup on the spoos if it drops to 2050. May not do it though so don’t chase it.

More goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

Only The Paranoid Survive

Originally attributed to Any Grove, the founder of Intel Corporation, this has remained one of my favorite quotes and one that has kept me out of trouble over and over again in my time spent as a trader. It always pays to watch your six and if you think you live in turbulent times after following the ongoing Grexit saga over the weekend then think again. Here’s a quote by Andy which summarizes the first twenty years of his life:

By the time I was twenty, I had lived through a Hungarian Fascist dictatorship, German military occupation, the Nazis’ “Final Solution,” the siege of Budapest by the Soviet Red Army, a period of chaotic democracy in the years immediately after the war, a variety of repressive Communist regimes, and a popular uprising that was put down at gunpoint. . . [where] many young people were killed; countless others were interned. Some two hundred thousand Hungarians escaped to the West. I was one of them.

So however bad you think you have it – think again. Things could be a lot worse. Of course not to diminish the situation in Greece right now. I often image myself living there, unemployed, broke, and standing in line in the smoldering summer heat trying to pull my last few Euros out of my bank account. In comparison I live a rather a sheltered existence - which of course could change at a moment’s notice (I reside in Spain). Which is why I personally employ a mixture of living in the now bundled with basic preparation and diversification.

2015-07-06_spoos_gaps

And that should be a standard policy given what I expect in the months ahead. After indecision and a six months + sideways churn we are now seeing successive gapping action across various market verticals. That is not a sign of a healthy market and the wheels could come off here at any moment. So just because the almost reflexive BTFD perhaps worked for you last week doesn’t mean it’s a good idea moving forward.

2015-07-06_EUR_gaps

Be cautious and avoid charts which signal uncertainty – the EUR/USD certainly is one of them. Given the weekend headlines the drop back to 1.1 is actually rather mild, just like when we gapped here last week. But we could see a huge jump or drop here at a moment’s notice (without the notice), and it won’t have anything to do with technical inflection points but rather political brinksmanship played for months/years finally coming to a sudden resolution. Remember that six sigma events happen when we don’t expect them. People have expected one for months here – and perhaps it will happen when everyone thinks the situation has been resolved. I personally don’t have a crystal ball but I do know a dangerous chart when I see one.

2015-07-06_ZF_gaps

You could get lucky and catch the right direction or you could find your trading account severely diminished one morning. To see the five year bonds paint such gaps is certainly disconcerting – especially if you understand how damn huge the bond market is (almost twice that of all equities combined). Gaps like that cost a lot of people a lot of money…

2015-07-06_AUDUS_briefing

Of course there are still charts out there which seem to benefit from the overall increase in volatility but aren’t flagging alert signals. The AUD/USD did a bit of gapping down but makes for a decent short term long this morning. However I’ll be pretty nimble here in the coming days – meaning small position sizing and being quick to take profits.

2015-07-06_soybean_briefing

Soybeans on a rampage – we did ride some of that beautiful advance recently. After an obligatory 3.0+ standard deviation reversion it may be ready to continue its way higher. I’m long 1/2R here with a stop below 1016. However I’m only playing half an R because…

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2015-07-06_soybean_meal_briefing

… I also like soybean meal. It’s facing an hourly NLBL plus its 100-hour SMA. No guarantee for a low but as good a chance as any we’ll get technically speaking. So I’m long another 1/2R with a stop below 342.

2015-07-06_natgas_briefing

Natgas – it’s always been a volatile bitch but compared with equities it seems almost serene these days. At least we’re seeing clear trading ranges and it seems to be observing LT support levels. Which is why I’m trying 1/2R long here with a stop below 2.73.

2015-07-06_AUDNZD_briefing

AUD/NZD is my final victim for now – I like the combination of the daily and hourly charts. However I could be a bit early here so I’m only taking 1/2R. I would try again with a full position if it drops lower and kisses its 25-day SMA.

[/am4show]

That ought to keep you guys entertained for a while. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,




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