Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2014-10-23_spoos_update

The E-Mini has been holding its ground overnight – as you can see where a bagel throw away from the 25-day SMA as well as the 25-week SMA. Actually right now this second being short with a tiny position (e.g. 1/4 R) has very low odds BUT a potentially large pay-off as your stop would be only a handle or two away. So given an eight tick stop your R size now has quite a bit of delta. Given that the VIX has come down quite a bit a few ATM options may also do the trick. As I’m still holding longs this is what I’m actually doing right now via the Spiders. Stop is a handle above the 25-day SMA (on the E-Mini – you can do that in TOS).

2014-10-23_DX_briefing

The Dollar looks like it’s ready to pop higher – I’ll be long on a breach of 85.905 – my ISL will be below the prior candle’s low (triggers on the chart).

Otherwise not much going on. Except that I beefed up our Futures Risk Calculator a little. Someone emailed me about a few missing symbols and I added them in. I also revamped the margin numbers and based them on Interactive Brokers, which is a pretty good retail standard (if you’re not with IB your margin will most likely differ, so check that out).

futures_risk_calc

 

I also added a link on the bottom that points to basic contract specs, in case you have any confusion about tick/point size, trading hours, etc. And if you like this one I guaranteed you will love our Forex Risk Calculator – no changes there but if you’re trading Forex it’s essential for converting between currencies and calculating your R size. Obviously we are using these two in conjunction with Thor – so if you’re in the beta testing group you definitely want to check out both.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Are The Wheels Back On?

Massive reversal today and frankly quite a bit more forceful than I had anticipated. So it seems the Mole got played on this one. I had it right on target regarding the bounce - our P&F pointed at SPX 1920 as its bearish price objective and our monthly NLSL sits at 1930. The SPX dropped right in between those two and our current low stands at 1926 and change. From there a bounce was to be expected but today’s rip higher is rather bullish and we could see continuation higher here.

2014-10-03_PNF_SPX

I posted this chart for my subs in yesterday’s long term update – the area I had highlighted in green was 1960, which is where I expected a low pole reversal warning to kick in. And that’s exactly what happened today – the odds were preeeettty tiny for this to happen. And it certainly took a few market participants by surprise. Fortunately I had no dog in this fight (except for the Thor campaign – see below) and thus escaped this little trap unscathed.

2014-10-03_spoos_update

If you are a bear this is a very ugly chart. Only a drop back below the ES 1960 mark (and better below the SPX 1960 mark) gives the bears another shot at some autumn fun. Not saying it won’t happen but it has to happen soon and in addition the tape must not breach back above the 25-day SMA.

2014-10-03_spoos_weekly

The weekly panel actually had triggered a double sell signal yesterday and a close below it would have locked in a major blemish for the bulls as this would have been our first official medium term sell signal. But both were reversed today and this is a big kick in the nuts for the bears.

2014-10-03_UVOL

As you can see on our NYSE UVOL signal – since the lows this has been one concerted short squeeze. It would be a mistake to cling to yesterday’s picture and not consider that the bulls can drive this higher. Yes, it could be one last spike higher but we get to that…

2014-10-03_VIX_update

More bullish ammunition – the VIX is most likely going to complete a bonafide equities buy signal. And potentially plenty of space below…

2014-10-03_zero

Now to the bearish evidence, which is why I don’t count them out completely just yet. The Zero signal is completely flat and this supports the previous chart in that this drive higher does not enjoy wide participation and could just be a bot driven squeeze which may fizzle out next week.

2014-10-03_spoos_GBPJPY

I am not seeing any confirmation at all on our old Forex correlation pairs – neither on cable…

2014-10-03_spoos_EURJPY

..nor on  the EUR/JPY. This is highly suspicious but the Dollar has been pushing hard today (who-hoo!) and this correlation has weakened somewhat recently.

Bottom line:  The bears are now officially on notice across the board and the onus is now on the bulls to drive this higher. Should the bulls fail to do so then the jig is up and the wheels will come off next week. However, simply holding SPX 1960 for a session or two will send any remaining grizzlies back to the sidelines – old habits die hard and the bulls still enjoy home turf advantage. Until proven otherwise they are effectively back behind the wheel. Inflection point: ES 1960 – below it the bears stand a chance – above it the bulls will probably bury them once again.

2014-10-03_cable

First up apologies for not deploying Thor earlier this week. I kept running into little things to fix – you know how it goes but it will be ready for Sunday night and (barring any major problem) that’s a promise. Here’s the GBP/USD which currently has earned us ~1R.

2014-10-03_ES_Thor

The ES bounce still left us with 1.25R as Thor took 50% off our units off the top near the lows.

2014-10-03_Thor_gold

Gold also in good shape and our stop is now at break-even. Let’s see if we see continuation lower – this is a great start.

One setup below for my intrepid subs – sorry, all I could dig up today but it’s a good one:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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Alright, I think I’ve done enough damage this week – see you guys on Monday morning.

060112Bierhaus1wf

Prost!

Spot On

You guys have to give me a tiny bit of credit today – after slaving away 20 hours plus last weekend and barely being awake I somehow managed to pick the lows of the day in the morning. Alright, technically I was off by 1/2 handle – I hope you accept my apologies then:

2014-09-29_spoos_update

It’s all in the wrist folks – and a bit of dark magic of course. The bad news however is that the bulls may not be out of the woodworks here just yet. A rather aggressive bounce this morning but that may be just EOM painting – recall that tomorrow is September’s last trading session. Oy vey – I can already here the Christmas commercials – the horror! Yes, that’s right – you’re getting old.

I would not wager making any conclusive call down here – we’ve held some reasonable support and if you bought there then by all means hold your positions for now. But unless we close positive or almost positive today this may lead lower on Wednesday.

2014-09-29_Zero

The chart of the day for me is the Zero – excellent Mole signals and if I wasn’t so damn tired I’d put up a video. But I’m pretty sure most of you guys would prefer me finishing Thor, right? Which after a Sunday snag has since progressed very nicely and I should be able to put up an early alpha sometime tomorrow. Cross your fingers.

UPDATE 4:30pm EDT - see above the updated chart.

2014-09-29_USDTRY_update

Our USD/TRY campaign is nearing its end as I banked 50% profits at the 4R mark – if it wasn’t trending so massively I would have closed it out altogether. But I’ve had an excellent month and that permits me a bit of discretion. However when I say discretion it means putting a stop below the 3R mark – so I’m not exactly playing dare devil. This was an awesome campaign and sadly I don’t think that many of you guys tagged along – at least judging by what I’m seeing in the comment section.

2014-09-29_EURUSD_LT

Since it’s the EOM I’m planning to do a long term update tomorrow – I think given where we are waiting another session is probably wise. On the Forex side the USD and the EUR are heading into respective inflection points – I wanted to post the EUR/USD early as it’s going on ‘bounce watch’ now. The weekly and monthly will put up some support here and odds are that the easy ride is over the Euro bears. It’s been a fun quarter for this expat as I’ve seen the EUR/USD go from almost 1.4 to nearly 1.27. That’s 13 cents I’m saving per Euro spent – quite significant and I’m able to afford an extra slice of bacon per week.

Two more setups below for my intrepid subs – please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

That’s it for today – see you guys tomorrow!

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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