Crazy Monday

I’ve got a laundry list of technical issues to deal with this morning, so please forgive the brevity of today’s update. As the tape is still running in circles chasing its own tail courtesy of some of hare-brained Fed rumors there unfortunately remains very little to work with:


GBP/CHF may be a long if it drops a bit more – 1.48 would be best. Under normal circumstances I would have risked a small entry here but I just see too much whipsaw and my entries now need to be nearly perfect to be justify the whipsaw risk.


AUD/NZD – also waiting for a little drop lower here. I do like the daily formation still however it did not break higher near 1.131 and I would prefer it a bit lower. Come to think of it – if it does a more conservative stop than the one on my chart may be good medicine.


Alright, I’m smelling smoke – need to run – catch you all later.

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Let’s Call It A Week

I just parsed through my universe of charts and what hasn’t blasted off already is running in circles. Not the type of tape I would want to touch with a ten foot pole. On the equities side there is really nothing to add that hasn’t been said already. My small short was taken out at break/even and I’m staying out of this turd of a tape until we see some real context. Remember my Epiphany post – that general assessment stands now more than ever.


Two GBP setups before I call it a week. GBP/CHF seems like a good long here but I’m only playing 1/4R with a stop half a mile away. On the daily we have been testing the 100-day SMA and thus far it’s been holding.


The other 1/4R goes to GBP/JPY which is unfolding similarly. Here we are scraping the lower 100-day Bollinger which may offer some support.

That’s it for now, folks. It’s early fall, my favorite season after spring; the weather is excellent (sunny and warm with a nice breeze) and I’m officially calling it a week. See you guys Monday morning.

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Sky Diving Elvis’

I’m going to dip my toe into a few symbols today again – however let’s re-emphasize again that small position sizing clearly should be our modus operandi for the foreseeable future. It is important that you understand that a practice of small position sizing (e.g. < 0.5% per campaign) and wider stops does not hamper our ability to profit but instead leverages this high volatility market phase in our favor. To place large bets during this period is tantamount to gambling, and if that’s what you’re after then I suggest you head for Vegas or Reno.

At least there you get to enjoy low priced hotel rooms, pool side entertainment, a sky diving Elvis, and girls in skimpy outfits serving you free drinks while they suck money out of your wallets*. You have been warned.

UPDATE: I had posted a ZB and ZN long trade but they hit the stop a few minutes after. I don’t see much edge in a short position here so I’m waiting for instructions. Meanwhile this is what’s left on the menu this morning:


GBP/CHF has been dancing on the 100-day SMA and I’m long here. However if stopped out near 1.46 I plan on reversing to short position. Again, SMALL position sizing – I’m taking 0.33% R position sizes today.

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A little bit of event risk today an hour before the open. You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty.


* Why am I not in Vegas right now again?

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