I’m going to keep it super simple today. Over the past few months we have observed increasing evidence of two medium trend shifts – a swing down on the equities and a push up on the bond side. My simple modus operandi going forward is to wait for short term trend trading opportunities in order to be positioned if/once we finally see acceleration. Yeah, I know – hopefully sometime this year – it’s been painful.

Bonds have been on a strong trajectory higher but have pulled back a little over the past few sessions. From here we either revisit the 100-day SMA or we proceed higher in the near term future. I’m currently long the ZB but [...]

The Eurogroup meeting is starting in a few minutes and I hope that it won’t blow too many of my setups out of the water. I’m already seeing a lot of talk of why Draghi may jawbone the Euro down, which is why I’m glad that I made several runs to the ATM over the past few days (meaning a short squeeze may be coming).

Anyway it looks like it’s going to be a heavy metal Friday folks! Gold is back down for a bit of mean reversion and I’m liking it long here.

Similarly silver may be a long here – I’m taking out a teeny weeny position with a stop below 15.250.

So yes, the Euro may drop lower today but in [...]

It’s all smiles down here at the evil lair as Scalpius is starting to get its groove on and managed to bank over 20R in the past two sessions. I’m still fiddling with the trailing logic but at this point it is outperforming what I’m seeing in historical tape. Reason being is that you can never properly simulate the spread, the offers, the available volume – it has to be done live.  Proper trailing is as much an art as it is science as it needs to consider the momentum of the price action and weigh existing against potential future gains. Yes, you can come up with MFE stats but they can be deceptive because your strategy may not be banking coin consistently [...]

Yesterday I once again got reminded of a crucial lesson that I learned years ago as a fledgling trader and which bodes repeating. If you read that post then you recall that I was all hot and bothered about bonds – equities in comparison merely seemed to be the sideshow. Well, a few hours later reality kicked in and bonds all went upside down with equities steadily dropping toward our stops.

However earlier this morning our patience got hugely rewarded. Truth be told a few ticks lower and my stop would have gotten snagged. Better to be lucky than good as the saying goes. It’s now looking very positive however and we could be at the onset of a short [...]