Hurdles Ahead

We have come a long way in the past three sessions but the easy part of the journey is now nearing its end. For there are hurdles looming ahead plus I’m seeing some signature signs of short term shenanigans flashing all over the place. Let’s start with where we are right now:

2014-10-21_spoos_update

Quite a climb since that is and there’s probably room for a few more handles. But bear in mind that we are now facing a trifecta of previously tested moving averages – at least per my lens and more often than not they have been observed.

2014-10-21_NQ

On the NQ things are looking quite a bit more bullish – AAPL definitely had a thing or two to do with that. However daily resistance is right ahead and we’re about to smack into it. On the weekly panel we’re however above the 25-week SMA, so that’s pretty positive.

2014-10-21_UVOL

Today’s session looks like it’s been on cruise control – the Zero also suggests that the bots are driving this one higher.

2014-10-21_VXV_VIX

Quarterly volatility has eased off quite a bit along with the VIX and the ratio has been leading the advance in the past few sessions. All good and given that we’ve got more than a week of trading ahead of us it’s not impossible that the bulls may actually pull this off and close the month above the NLSL.

So much for the good news – now let’s talk about some of the concerns:


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Cheers,

Mad Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2014-10-20_spoos_briefing

Put your game faces on folks, judging by this morning’s activity it looks like we’re going to have a busy week. Equites are now near the make or break point. Short term this is an awesome opportunity to be long with very little risk. Simply put your stop below the 100-hour SMA. If we drop through it we may bounce back bear trap style but the bullish case would be extremely vulnerable. We don’t have a crystal ball but the odds are good here. Even worth being stopped out once or twice – so keep your position size small and build it it up as you go.

In case you wonder – yes, being short below the 100-hour is encouraged if we drop below it. But there will be attempts to reconquer it and unless your stop is above 1890 odds are you will be swept. No exact science – it depends on your trading style. But this is a major inflection point that will determine the direction for the coming weeks.

2014-10-20_NQ_briefing

Similar view on the NQ but not as dynamic – the 100-hour is now pushing sideways which means it can serve as the line of scrimmage to kick this thing higher. If it fails the bulls will find themselves in a world of hurt.

2014-10-20_EURUSD_briefing

Oh how much I wish this setup would fail but much to my chagrin it’s looking very very good. So I’m long here with a stop below the now rising 100-hour.

Quite a bit more waiting below the fold – secret decoder ring required:


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

I Robot

Make no mistake – very few humans are actively involved here. The comment section looks pretty deserted today (short of tumble weeds passing through) and it’s one of many signs that anyone with a pulse feels pretty exhausted at the end of this week. Of course the market Mole knows no mercy and here are a few more charts for you stragglers before I send you off into a well deserved weekend:

2014-10-17_UVOL

Seems to me that the bots are driving this – they have on the way down and although there was a bit confusion regarding the script yesterday they’re back today in full force. I don’t know if they are scaling in our out there but thus far the mojo I’m seeing on the Zero leaves much to be desired:

2014-10-17_zero

I don’t think you need to be an expert chartist to see what I mean. Pretty solid divergence there almost since the open and we keep meandering downward. Could be a trap of course but silly games will not save this quarter, so if the bull wants turkey for Christmas he’s got to get a move on. If this divergence holds we may just slip away late in the session, but let’s see – it’s Friday evening, everyone’s gone and the bots are having a field day with it.

2014-10-17_VIX

The gaps I’m seeing on the VIX are not exactly confidence instilling either. As you can see we have dropped back to 22 and change but volatility of volatility continues to expand. Not a sign of a healthy market. Perhaps everyone was waiting for some scraps of hope from the ole’ Yeller today. By the way if you’re up for a good laugh then check out this little jewel - and I quote:

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Friday expressed deep concern over widening economic inequality in the country and called for tackling issues such as early childhood education and encouraging entrepreneurship to help narrow the gap.

I almost blew over my old Apple Cinema display when I saw that, hilarious. Maybe that should have been a concern before we threw over a trillion dollars into the arms of our esteemed banksters. Don’t get me wrong – I appreciate cynicism at its finest but please – don’t insult the remains of my intelligence.

But I digress – if you want to know what makes equities tick I suggest you look at the short term panels which contain our best clues. Please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

And now it’s time for me to attend to my [second] favorite Friday evening past time:

german_beer

Have a relaxing weekend – I’ll see you guys on Monday.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator


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    1. Quiet Friday Morning Briefing
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