Sitting On The Edge

Equities are at an inflection point – yes, we are pushing into new territory but due to a shallow correction yesterday we may not be ready to start another squeeze. I’m still holding the long positions I grabbed this morning and my stop remains at 2008.5 which means I was one tick away from being touched.

2014-11-05_spoos_volume_profile

The E-Mini volume profile chart shows us what we’re up against – we are heading into uncharted territory and I think a more thorough correction is needed to kick this thing higher into the Santa season. Either way, I’m still holding my longs I grabbed at 1872. My current stop is at the 2nd nearest spike low at 1960. I am considering to shed 20% if we drop through the previous one at 1995.

2014-11-05_SPX_update

The hourly SPX panel shows us a very solid 25-hour SMA which however is starting to lose momentum. So the situation here is pretty clear. The bulls need to start running or face a more thorough correction, perhaps all teh way toward 1962 where we find the 100-hour SMA (see, there IS method to my madness).

2014-11-05_VIX_SPX

The VIX is slightly elevated as you can see from the ratio I’m plotting below the SPX here. So I think market makers are expecting a correction here as well. Strangely thus far nothing has yet materialized.

2014-11-05_GBPJPY_update

Update on the GBP/JPY setup from last night – see what I meant by not having a directional bias? Who looked at that chart yesterday and would have considered a LONG entry? Perhaps 1% of all traders – that’s how many. Well we did and my recommendation is to move your stop to b/e – you are now sitting pretty. I can’t promise that this squeeze will continue but the die has been cast and now we wait. By the way GBP/USD worked fantastically for a few hours but then somehow ran back to our entry – I recommend an exit on that one.

2014-11-05_AUDCAD_update

AUD/CAD – I was whipsawed there this morning but got above 0.9905 – taking profits now which earned me a bit over 1R considering the 1/2R I lost being long first.

2014-11-05_crude_update

Crude – perfect entry here this morning and we are now uniquely positioned for continuation higher. Again, no guarantees but move your stop to break/even and then sacrifice a medium rare beef burger to appease our overlords at the firm whose name must not be spoken.

Only one measly setup this evening and I’m keeping it for my intrepid subs:


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Cheers,

Hurdles Ahead

We have come a long way in the past three sessions but the easy part of the journey is now nearing its end. For there are hurdles looming ahead plus I’m seeing some signature signs of short term shenanigans flashing all over the place. Let’s start with where we are right now:

2014-10-21_spoos_update

Quite a climb since that is and there’s probably room for a few more handles. But bear in mind that we are now facing a trifecta of previously tested moving averages – at least per my lens and more often than not they have been observed.

2014-10-21_NQ

On the NQ things are looking quite a bit more bullish – AAPL definitely had a thing or two to do with that. However daily resistance is right ahead and we’re about to smack into it. On the weekly panel we’re however above the 25-week SMA, so that’s pretty positive.

2014-10-21_UVOL

Today’s session looks like it’s been on cruise control – the Zero also suggests that the bots are driving this one higher.

2014-10-21_VXV_VIX

Quarterly volatility has eased off quite a bit along with the VIX and the ratio has been leading the advance in the past few sessions. All good and given that we’ve got more than a week of trading ahead of us it’s not impossible that the bulls may actually pull this off and close the month above the NLSL.

So much for the good news – now let’s talk about some of the concerns:


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Cheers,

Mad Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2014-10-20_spoos_briefing

Put your game faces on folks, judging by this morning’s activity it looks like we’re going to have a busy week. Equites are now near the make or break point. Short term this is an awesome opportunity to be long with very little risk. Simply put your stop below the 100-hour SMA. If we drop through it we may bounce back bear trap style but the bullish case would be extremely vulnerable. We don’t have a crystal ball but the odds are good here. Even worth being stopped out once or twice – so keep your position size small and build it it up as you go.

In case you wonder – yes, being short below the 100-hour is encouraged if we drop below it. But there will be attempts to reconquer it and unless your stop is above 1890 odds are you will be swept. No exact science – it depends on your trading style. But this is a major inflection point that will determine the direction for the coming weeks.

2014-10-20_NQ_briefing

Similar view on the NQ but not as dynamic – the 100-hour is now pushing sideways which means it can serve as the line of scrimmage to kick this thing higher. If it fails the bulls will find themselves in a world of hurt.

2014-10-20_EURUSD_briefing

Oh how much I wish this setup would fail but much to my chagrin it’s looking very very good. So I’m long here with a stop below the now rising 100-hour.

Quite a bit more waiting below the fold – secret decoder ring required:


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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