FOMC Wednesday

Rejoice ladies and leeches – it’s that time of the month – FOMC Wednesday is upon us again. Which is our collective cue to hunker down and wait for the obligatory wave of volatility to wash over us. I swear, every time I see that one on tomorrow’s event roster my eyes glaze over.

2015-08-19_FOMC_wednesday

So let’s cut through the crap, shall we? I’ll be happy to tell you in advance what’s going to happen. Yellen is going to deliver her usual litany of reasons for not raising interest rates (namely a shitty economy based on cooked books, fudged numbers, and of course low employment participation) whilst continuing to dangle the magic hike carrot in the ‘not so distant future’ – but just out of reach enough to keep everyone guessing. The usual suspects paid to interpret the tea leafs are going to make sure to dissect every single word carefully and we may see a few wild swings across forex and equities (although those have been a lot more mild lately) while that’s going on. There you go – now you can move on with your day! :-)

Not that it really matters as I don’t see much on the radar today I would touch with a ten foot pole. Nasty tape lately and my patience is wearing pretty damn thin. I’m sure you can empathize, unless you were on vacation in which case congrats you bastard – you didn’t miss a damn thing.

2015-08-19_sugar_update

The one exception to all the market misery has been the one symbol I posted for the subs the other day. Sugar really sweetened my day as it finally got my memo and jumped higher during yesterday’s session. It has come down a bit since then but this is definitely a good start. It took me two attempts to get in there and I’m moving my stop a bit above break/even near the 100-hour SMA. This one could turn into a runner but and under normal conditions I would give it an 80% chance to advance higher. But these are not ‘normal conditions’ are they – which is why I have reduced my position sizing to 0.5R max per uncorrelated symbol.


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See you guys later this afternoon after the Yellinator.

Cheers,

Short Term Updates

I’m not really hot on any new positions this morning but I did close out a few of yesterday’s short term campaigns. Although I was able to snag two good ones there’s one that played me for a sucker:

2015-06-30_GBPNZD_update

GBP/NZD – I dug deep and grabbed a few longs after seeing selling exhausting. It was the right move but the bastard wound stopping me out by a mere two pips before it took of like gangbusters. Just to show you that this happens to everyone – nobody gets a free pass from Ms. Market.

2015-06-30_AUDNZD_update

Fortunately I had the foresight to also grab a few longs on the AUD/NZD. Sweet move here as well and I just took profits.

2015-06-30_EURUSD_update

My EUR/USD campaign has come to an end as well. As much as I would love to see this one drop lower for a repeat performance the odds of this transpiring are rather low.

2015-06-29_zero

There were some questions regarding that subtle divergence on the Zero Lite (right panel) yesterday and earlier this morning. First up, it’s pretty normal to see a bit of a taper at the end of an extended sell off session. That doesn’t always mean that we’ll see an instant bounce. Perhaps if the signal would have started touching the Zero mark (in blue) a bit in the last hour. In that case I may have been tempted to grab a few lottery long tickets.

2015-06-30_spoos_briefing

Now you may look at the overnight bounce and tell yourself that the Zero called it. I would disagree there – the price action almost 11 hours ago has little to do with what we ensued after the closing bell. Correlation does not equal causation. Thus I believe holding off on getting long last night was the right decision. If you stayed up late and kept watching the price action of course then you may have had opportunities as the spoos started to test a stack of Net-Line Sell Levels.

Alright, I’ll keep parsing around and if I see anything of value will  post it here.

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Cheers,

The Game In A Nutshell

I think today’s session should serve as a stark reminder that the very last thing you should ever attempt is to apply even the slightest sliver of logic to market behavior, especially during volatile periods. I’m going to make this very easy for you rats, so listen up and listen carefully now. If in doubt or if you find yourself attempting to make a prediction as to where the tape may swing in response to big news events remind yourself of the following:

shark_tank

Now read the line above again a few times and then write it on a piece of paper and stick it to your wall or resident shark tank if you have one handy. I prefer the latter as it serves as a proper backdrop to that message and for all you pikers I have put together a little theme pic which you can use instead 😉

2015-06-29_spoos_update

Case in point are the spoos which first gapped lower screwing anyone left long – then attempted to close the gap until the 100-day SMA (and weekly NLBLs) to then turn on a dime and continue lower. Clearly there is no explaining any of this and neither should we try. The chart above provided us with all we need to know.

2015-06-29_zero

So did the Zero I may add which has been pointing down all day since the open. But chances are you weren’t watching that one as you’re a nomadic ZeroEdge reading retail rat and thus can’t afford the monthly subscription for your $2000 E*Trade account.

2015-06-29_ZM_setup_freebie

Soybean meal – I just held my nose and take a spoon full long here with a stop below 332. 1/2R only as the daily context is looking rather bearish so odds have it I’ll be stopped out. But if not it’ll catch a bunch of folks off guard.

2015-06-29_Euro_setup

Euro – nice upper BB touch and I’m short here 1/2R. I do love this chart but the gap turned into a short squeeze. Why? Because a reversal higher and beyond didn’t make any sense whatsoever, which is exactly why it happened. If that confuses you please re-read the intro above.

The force today is definitely with Forex – and for my intrepid subs I have more setups waiting below the fold:


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Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

That’s it for today – I hope none of you guys were caught off guard and are positioned nicely. Definitely no lack in volatility and odds have it that we’ll see a bit more before things quiet down for Independence Day weekend.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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