Mole Versus The Ukrainian

I trust you all had an enjoyable spring weekend. Over here in Valencia it’s starting to get pretty hot already and I saw some of the clocks with temperature signs flash 36 Celsius (97 Fahrenheit) when I was heading to the beach, where it was fortunately much cooler with a lovely breeze. During training with my crew some Ukranian dude versed in MMA suddenly showed up and started to criticize our training style. I wound up sparring around with him a little which was really interesting as he was desperately trying to get me into a typical sparring exchange (jab jab – dancing back/forth). Systema teaches us to remain loose/relaxed and to not let the other guy direct the pace or style of fighting. Heck, I didn’t even raise my hands and just waited, which confused the hell out of him. He was quite good actually - we both took some and dished out some and I really enjoyed it as it was a great test of what happens in real life when the gloves come off. In the end we shook hands and introduced each other to our wives, both having learned a little lesson. Mine was to always be prepared to be challenged and his was to not prematurely judge someone else’s approach/style.

The analogy to the world of trading for a living is that you can paper trade until the cows come home but until you actually use real capital and taste some of you own blood it’s all just a game. Operating under pressure and controlling your emotions is the aspect of self management most traders do not spend much thought or time on. And give it a few hits and a bad day and suddenly all your bad habits, your fears, and your instinctive responses are right back to bite you in the ass.

For some of you this may be a strange analogy, especially if you shy away from physical confrontations – most people probably haven’t been in a physical fight since high school and frankly it’s not something I encourage, just for the record. Neither do I enjoy being punched in the face – plus I’m way too handsome (under the right lighting conditions). However I draw many parallels from fighting as it forces me to a) relax and b) puts me into a situation which I cannot control and which potentially will cause injury. I truly believe that doing this on a recurrent basis keeps me more grounded, keeps me humble, and compels me to continue working on my skills. The more often I train with my guys the better I feel, the more relaxed and Zen I am. That in turn affects my personal life quite a bit – here at home dealing with the usual trials and tribulations that life and marriage throws at you, as well as maintaining this blog, supporting hundreds of subscribers, picking and maintaining campaigns, developing new tools, you get the ida.

Moral of the story: Find something that challenges you on a continuous basis – that puts you out of your comfort zone. If you like martial arts – great, any style is good, just make sure that there’s real contact and no shadow boxing. If you on the other hand enjoy sky diving, or sailing, or climbing, or scuba diving – whatever it is, make it a regular part of your life. Heck, if I was still in the U.S. I would partake in a sniper course right now. Not because I ever see myself taking out Columbian drug lords but because I have a hard time not moving for more than perhaps ten minutes. Without boasting, I’m an excellent shot actually – have been from the first day I picked up a firearm. However out in the field I would get found out quickly as I wouldn’t be able to just lay there for hours on end without moving, especially if some creepy crawler was making its way up my leg. And being a sniper is all about not being seen – taking your shot takes less than 0.1% of the time of your deployment. Not as glamorous as would imagine from watching the movies. So in a nutshell – expose yourself to the things you really hate, and especially the things you actively have avoided.

To lead by example I’m going to start taking cold showers in the next few weeks. I hate the cold but will begin finishing hot showers with cold rinses and then increase the period each day. I keep you posted on my progress ;-)


Alright, our NQ campaign is proceeding nicely and I’m glad that I held it over the weekend. Not by grand foresight I may add but because I managed to snag a great entry on Friday morning – so did you I hope (it was in my morning briefing after all). Now we are just at a point where this thing either starts gaining traction or will fall apart. I’m keeping my stop at the break/even point for now.


EUR/USD – obligatory shake out after it touched the 100-day SMA. As a side note – we got a great target exit there and although I have no clue as to why the 100-day works so well for me I’ll continue using it as long as I keep nailing spike highs or lows like this ;-)

Anyway, I’m not having high hopes of a big reversal. If you’re new here – I live in Spain and earn in Dollars, so you do the math – I would love to see the EUR drop back down. However what the lowly Mole wants and what the market gives him are two different pair of shoes. Which is why I’m long here with a stop a pip below 1.11 – 1/2R only as it’s a bit experimental.If you’re late for this one then don’t chase it – wait for a retest of the 100-hour SMA.

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.


Tuesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.


The spoos have held their ground overnight and if that hourly NLBL holds up until the open we may be primed for at least a ramp and camp session (the ramp having happened yesterday). Anyway, thus far it’s looking solid but at minimum we have to hold ES 2070 (the 25-day SMA)  moving forward. Failure to do so won’t squander the bullish potential here but we may remain trapped in a sideways formation. Not a great way to spend spring, especially after we already have remained range based for most of the year.


Update on our USD/JPY campaign which is progressing quite nicely. I’m moving my stop to the 100-hour now as I’m converting it officially into a daily campaign. If it manages to breach the 25-day SMA it may have enough mojo for a rocket move higher.

Hello Major Tom – are you receiving??


Bonds – looking good here and I’m attempting a small (1/2R) long with a stop below the recent spike low at 163.26.


GBP/USD – something grabbed my attention here this morning. It’s looking like it’s primed for a drop lower but IF (and only IF) it manages to bust above 1.491 I plan to take out a small (1/2R or less) long position.

More short term setups below the fold:

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Alright that should keep you guys busy. See you guys later this afternoon.


Before I go I would like to present this year’s Wacky Weed Award to Ivan Krastins who just dropped by this morning and thus proved utter invincibility in the face of a category 5 typhoon or however they label their massive storms down under. Well done Ivan – we are glad you are well and hope you will bestow us with many more years of cryptic contributions ;-)

By the way – buy his book or something – he needs to rebuild is straw hut in Vanuatu and chase out the crabs. Or donate here to help rebuild the island.


One For The Road

This will be my last post before until Thursday as I’m heading out to catch my plane to Paris and then to Los Angeles. This actually works out better than having to take the AVE to Madrid and then grabbing a flight to L.A., especially now that Iberia apparently has apparently ceased servicing the direct route. Let’s just hope those frogs won’t be on strike today – you never know, but at least it’s still out of season over here in Europe.


Suffice to say that I don’t even know what time it is anymore – over the past week I have slowly delayed my sleeping cycle and am now operating on Eastern Standard time. The idea is to pop a Xanax on the plane and hopefully not being awaken by the fat guy they’ve invariably booked right next to me. Anyway, Scott has graciously volunteered to post tomorrow, and his timing couldn’t be any better as we have plenty of movement across the board.


So let’s talk tape! On the Zero we’ve had a pretty wild day with swings on both sides of the spectrum but still favoring the short side. However I do see a bit of a divergence on the hourly (left panel) which is probably due to the fact that we had barely any positive signal spikes yesterday. You guys are probably wondering where we may find support, let’s see:


The E-Mini futures are hanging somewhere in limbo and the only context I see is the weekly NLSL at 2036.5. We haven’t touched it yet and I would like to see that before I suggesting taking partial profits.


I’m posting the weekly and monthly NQ chart here in order to give you guys a bit of perspective. I don’t really have to say it, right? Just look at this monthly panel and marvel at this beautiful trend to the upside. That’s a one in a lifetime move, folks and you’ll probably have to heavily invest in cryonics to ever see anything of the kind again. Now, we are near the monthly NLBL at 4348 here and that ought to be good for a bit of support. On the weekly we got 4286 and 4201.5 plus the 25-week SMA in case we drop lower. I think we’ll probably see an obligatory bounce first.


Update on my open positions – Gold remains lackluster and I’m closing it out with meager profits. The CAD pairs all got stopped out but at least at break/even – so I got out clean on those.


GBP/NZD is on a roll now and I’m advancing my stop to 2.0628.


GBP/CAD – almost got stopped out on that one by a tick! I’m letting this sucker run and keeping my stop at break/even for now.


CAD/JPY – stop out with tiny profits as it turned on a dime. Keep an eye on this one guys – I love the context on the daily and we are now back at the 25-day SMA plus a few Net-Lines. Perhaps you’re able to grab this one long above the SMA or short below it.


ZF – that was a very speculative entry but it’s slowly grinding higher. Stop now at 118.200 – very comfortable to keep this one running while I’m stuck at 35,000 feet.

And that’s me signing off here in Europe. You are in good hands (i.e. Scott) and our open positions are flashing green. Subs – everything is running as usual and I’m going to put up new Thor setups (if there are any) in the next hour. However if there are any unforeseen problems then you’ll have to wait around 24 hours before you’ll hear back. Alright, that’s it for now – I (hopefully) see you all state side.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


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