Short Term Updates

I’m not really hot on any new positions this morning but I did close out a few of yesterday’s short term campaigns. Although I was able to snag two good ones there’s one that played me for a sucker:

2015-06-30_GBPNZD_update

GBP/NZD – I dug deep and grabbed a few longs after seeing selling exhausting. It was the right move but the bastard wound stopping me out by a mere two pips before it took of like gangbusters. Just to show you that this happens to everyone – nobody gets a free pass from Ms. Market.

2015-06-30_AUDNZD_update

Fortunately I had the foresight to also grab a few longs on the AUD/NZD. Sweet move here as well and I just took profits.

2015-06-30_EURUSD_update

My EUR/USD campaign has come to an end as well. As much as I would love to see this one drop lower for a repeat performance the odds of this transpiring are rather low.

2015-06-29_zero

There were some questions regarding that subtle divergence on the Zero Lite (right panel) yesterday and earlier this morning. First up, it’s pretty normal to see a bit of a taper at the end of an extended sell off session. That doesn’t always mean that we’ll see an instant bounce. Perhaps if the signal would have started touching the Zero mark (in blue) a bit in the last hour. In that case I may have been tempted to grab a few lottery long tickets.

2015-06-30_spoos_briefing

Now you may look at the overnight bounce and tell yourself that the Zero called it. I would disagree there – the price action almost 11 hours ago has little to do with what we ensued after the closing bell. Correlation does not equal causation. Thus I believe holding off on getting long last night was the right decision. If you stayed up late and kept watching the price action of course then you may have had opportunities as the spoos started to test a stack of Net-Line Sell Levels.

Alright, I’ll keep parsing around and if I see anything of value will  post it here.

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Cheers,

The Game In A Nutshell

I think today’s session should serve as a stark reminder that the very last thing you should ever attempt is to apply even the slightest sliver of logic to market behavior, especially during volatile periods. I’m going to make this very easy for you rats, so listen up and listen carefully now. If in doubt or if you find yourself attempting to make a prediction as to where the tape may swing in response to big news events remind yourself of the following:

shark_tank

Now read the line above again a few times and then write it on a piece of paper and stick it to your wall or resident shark tank if you have one handy. I prefer the latter as it serves as a proper backdrop to that message and for all you pikers I have put together a little theme pic which you can use instead ;-)

2015-06-29_spoos_update

Case in point are the spoos which first gapped lower screwing anyone left long – then attempted to close the gap until the 100-day SMA (and weekly NLBLs) to then turn on a dime and continue lower. Clearly there is no explaining any of this and neither should we try. The chart above provided us with all we need to know.

2015-06-29_zero

So did the Zero I may add which has been pointing down all day since the open. But chances are you weren’t watching that one as you’re a nomadic ZeroEdge reading retail rat and thus can’t afford the monthly subscription for your $2000 E*Trade account.

2015-06-29_ZM_setup_freebie

Soybean meal – I just held my nose and take a spoon full long here with a stop below 332. 1/2R only as the daily context is looking rather bearish so odds have it I’ll be stopped out. But if not it’ll catch a bunch of folks off guard.

2015-06-29_Euro_setup

Euro – nice upper BB touch and I’m short here 1/2R. I do love this chart but the gap turned into a short squeeze. Why? Because a reversal higher and beyond didn’t make any sense whatsoever, which is exactly why it happened. If that confuses you please re-read the intro above.

The force today is definitely with Forex – and for my intrepid subs I have more setups waiting below the fold:


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That’s it for today – I hope none of you guys were caught off guard and are positioned nicely. Definitely no lack in volatility and odds have it that we’ll see a bit more before things quiet down for Independence Day weekend.

Cheers,

Happy Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2015-06-01_spoos_briefing

The week is hitting the ground running it seems. As Skynard mused in the prior post – we are most likely going to see a spike in volatility here today. The spoos are looking super juicy here as we are tickling support and it’s my patriotic duty to grab a long position with a stop below 2099. Below that we’ll probably drop into whoknowshowlow. Which means I’ll swap for a short if stopped out.

2015-06-01_ZB_briefing

The 30-year bond futures are also sitting on a binary inflection point – long above the NLBL and short below the rising 100-hour SMA which is also backed up by a NLSL. Bonus point – you won’t have to roll for a while if it starts trending, so stop futzing about and get on with it.

2015-06-01_gold_briefing

Time to strike while the iro… uuuh gold is hot – a stop below 1180 should do the trick. This one is also short of dropping off the plate which means I’m open to flip the script and go for shorts if stopped out. All that sideways tape has lulled you into almost slavish submission and I bet good money right now most of you rats will miss the boat once it starts trending. Prove me wrong.

2015-06-01_GBPNZD_briefing

GBP/NZD – long here with a stop below the 100-hour SMA. Who wants to live forever? Me actually which is why I’m only playing 1/2R.

You want more? Better pay up and join the club – leeches only get to see the tip of the iceberg ;-)


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

2015-06-01_events

A bit of event risk around 10:00am Eastern – so batten down the hatches around that time. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Catch A Ride On The Wild Side – Aussie Trade
    2. Only The Paranoid Survive
    3. Happy Independence Day
    4. The Quiet Before The Storm
    5. Timing is everything – Black Gold
    6. Short Term Updates
    7. The Game In A Nutshell
    8. Filling The Gaps
    9. Greece Saga Precautions
    10. Furious And Furious Friday