Day Of Truth

I’m running a bit late this morning as I have been shifting my circadian rhythm over the past week and am already operating/living on Eastern time. Fortuitously the change to daylight saving time yesterday works hugely in my favor as it shaves off yet another hour in preparation to my journey to Los Angeles.

It seems that we are at important turning or inflection points across various markets so I expect this to be a turbulent week. Some of you senior rats recall that every time the Mole travels we seem to experience big moves – so let’s see if my streak continues ;-)

2015-03-09_spoos_briefing

The E-Mini managed to bounce toward its 25-hour SMA where it seems to meet resistance. We don’t have much context on this one right now but the NLSL at 2066.25 should be considered the gate to a significant drop lower. I am keeping my short positions as is and have moved my stop to break/even.

2015-03-09_nq_briefing

NQ futures look quite a bit more bearish this morning as we’re back near last week’s lows. Keep an eye on this one as it may be our canary in the coal mine in all things equities. However the reason why I titled this post ‘Day Of Truth’ is that the follow up days are the true measure of assessing potential trend changes. This thing has to continue lower today or, as we have seen so often, support will start establishing itself courtesy of a lackluster or sideways session. The onus is now on the bears to lead this lower. Watch the Zero for signs and/or lack of participation in either direction.

2015-03-09_GBPUSD_briefing

Cable – I want to be long above 1.512 – stop below 1.507.

2015-03-09_GC_briefing

Gold – I’m short here with a stop above 1175. The odds for a bit of whipsaw here are pretty significant which is why I’m only attributing 1/4R.

More below the fold – please join me in the lair:


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Alright – that should keep you guys busy for a while. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

Long Term Update

It’s been a while and today seems like a good day to catch up with our long term charts. In general it seems like we have touched major lows in various key markets – most importantly on the Euro and crude front. The former much to my chagrin of course – how much I have enjoyed the favorable exchange rate and I’m not looking forward to seeing that change. Alright, let’s cover some major symbols, starting with equities of course:

2015-02-19_spoos_update

The long term panels on the S&P futures look in pretty good shape at this point, however it seems that we remain pinned below our weekly NLBL at ES 2088.75. It would be preferable to overcome this one by tomorrow as it would issue a weekly buy, thus almost guaranteeing new highs and a final departure from a two month trading range spanning over 100 handles.

2015-02-19_SPX_PNF

The SPX point and figure however shows a lot of positive evidence – in particular I like that support cluster near 1990 which in the future should provide some very solid support during any attempts to drag equities lower. On the long term chart we already have strong context courtesy of the 25-week SMA which has been attacked several times in the past months but managed to remain intact. However I must point out that this is the first horizontal defense line in a long time – which means the trend is weakening and most likely in its late stages.

In summary the bulls remain large and in charge here and if you’re holding long term then there is no reason to second guess the advance, despite all the bearish musings across the financial media and blogosphere. Yes, the bulls were in big trouble a few weeks ago but managed to throw a last minute Hail Mary. So far it’s working and until we see signs of exhaustion again the bear goes back into hibernation. He had his chance and he blew it.

2015-02-19_gold_LT

Gold looked like it was ready for take off and then suddenly deflated like a French soufflé. Quite frankly the gold bugs are in big trouble here and if we breach through that 100-week SMA and below the NLSL at 1130 there’s no telling how low it’ll go.

2015-02-19_gold_PNF

The P&F totally agrees it seems as the bullish PO is still a possibility but signals a high pole reversal warning which is about to turn into a sell signal. The gold bugs are on notice here and perhaps in a few days we’ll have a chance to take out a few lottery tickets to the long side. As I said – below 1130 we may just fall off the plate. Until that happens the long side is worth a shot as I expect 1130 to be defended fiercely.

More LT musings below the fold – please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

Fantastic Tuesday Morning Briefing

Belated but excellent kick off for the week. I literally have setups crawling out of the woodwork this morning. The Forex side in particular is off the hook with plenty of goodies to be had. Let’s get to work and bank some coin!!

2015-02-17_NQ_briefing

NQ – wait for a retest of the NLBL and then be long with a stop below 4365. Short side is limited here as the 100-hour SMA is now pushing higher and will most likely offer support.

2015-02-17_GBPUSD_briefing

Cable – excellent setup with beautiful daily context. Triggers and details on the chart.

2015-02-17_crude_briefing

Crude – either long here right now or wait for a push above the NLBL. Again, I do very much like the daily context.

2015-02-17_gold_briefing

Gold – short on this one with a stop above the 100-hour SMA. If breached then I’ll be long with a stop below the current lows.

Quite a bit more below the fold – please step into my Mediterranean trading lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Did I promise too much? So many setups, so little time. Get to work but keep it frosty!

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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