Dr. Seuss’ Worst Nightmare

I’m not one to brag but when it comes to enduring extended periods of crappy tape the market Mole has grown to be rather resilient over the years. But the spasmodic gyrations we had to endure of the past six months or so has put things on whole new level. I think the last time I saw random swings even remotely resembling this mess was in 2010 and that was not a happy trading year for many. Even when I back test various strategies that year is usually one that ends up on the flat or negative side.


I’ve watched several of you guys trying to make sense of this woodchipper and I implore you to just let it go. There is simply too much noise and confusion out there –  it’s our inherent human nature which insists on attempting to see patterns where there are none. If you draw enough lines and squiggly things you will convince yourself that you’ll see a distinct formation. I happen to be long since ES 2113 which I grabbed on a dip lower this morning – my stop still stands below 2007. But frankly I don’t really care – as I said a week or two ago: the less credence/time I give this POS tape the better I’ll be for it.


And equity futures aren’t the only culprits – just look at what gold has put us through. Not even CrazyIvan is liking this and it eats spasmodic gyrations for breakfast. You have been warned – just stay away for now.


Cable update – still in this one but I have moved my stop up to the recent spike low. I do like the general concept here and I’m going to hold it. But either this one gets out of the gate now or not.


We’ve seen quite a bit of movement on the Forex side however. AUD/JPY at an inflection point – either it’ll start correcting here or it’ll swing that upper BB to the upside. I’m currently long with a stop near 96.55 – below that I’ll flip for a short. 1/2R sizes only – way too much volatility out there right now.

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The Big Squeeze

The gloves have officially come off and it’s outright war all across forex as GBP and EUR shorts are systematically being squeezed into oblivion. Very few saw this one coming it seems except for the Mole and his crew of lowly steel rats. Having secured early seats on a fleet of buses it’s all smiles down here at the lair – a rather welcome reward after weeks of pain and patiently waiting our turn in the bullpen. But that’s yesterday’s trades – we’ve got more work to do this morning – so let’s roll up our sleeves and get to it:


The E-Mini – I took an experimental long here as we’re retesting the 2088 mark. I have low expectations of this one working out but it’s a delicious entry and I’m taking it with 1/2R.


NZD/USD – picking over corpses here – that’s right, no mercy! That was one nasty drop and I’m long here with a stop below the previous lows. Again an experimental entry – if you follow me into the abyss don’t risk more than 1/2R.


Bonds – binary inflection point here. I’m currently long and so can you but I would wait for a drop toward 128’120. Below 128’040 the abyss awaits – see the context on the daily.

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.


All In A Good Day’s Work

It’s all smiles down here in my sunny Mediterranean lair – account flashing bright green and I have converted several ST campaigns into daily ones (more on that below). Judging by the thundering silence none of you guys followed suit here yesterday afternoon which is extremely disappointing. Not to boast but my seven year track record suggests a pretty high success rate in flagging important inflection points.


The E-Mini once again turned on a dime right at the lower 100-hour BB, which was one of the support zones I pointed out this morning. Tough one to catch IMO unless of course…


…. you were a Zero subscriber – then you may have seen this one coming. Textbook signal divergence during today’s lows and although you may not have nailed the very bottom I have an inkling some of my Zero subs were able to slip in a few longs here 😉


Alright, let’s catch up with the ongoing campaigns which I converted into daily ones as of now. NZD/USD now looking pretty solid and I’m leaving my stop at break/even for now. Giving this a lot of space to run.


EUR/JPY – also great entry there yesterday but we’re heading into daily resistance. My stop is already at break/even which may bite me in the ass if we get a LKGB retest.


EUR/USD – sorry to say that it’s looking good as well – there goes my cheap exchange rate I guess, bugger! Also facing resistance here on the daily soon.


AUD/USD – SOLID!!! I’m taking 50% off the table here as I expect a correction at the 25-week SMA, plus after banking 2R+ that’s more than in line with my system rules.


AUD/CAD – damn – this one literally exploded higher. I’ll be taking partial profits above 0.965 where the 100-day SMA awaits.


Wheat triggered on Thor.0 the other day, which is still in beta, and as this is turning into a textbook campaign I wanted to post it here as well. The whole idea behind Thor.0 is that it stays in the campaign as long as possible – we have a theoretical 20R target but don’t expect that one to ever be hit. In contract Thor exits at the 4R mark which is appropriate for that particular strategy. The main difference between those two is that Thor.0 triggers during strong trends as well as the onset of big run – success rate is 50/50 but once it gets going it can go on for weeks.


Corn was another Thor.0 entry and I think the original Thor would have taken 4R profits by now. As you can see the weekly is offering support here and this is where this campaign may fail. It has already taken 50% off the table at the 2R mark and now it’s basically a matter of whether or not this one turns into a runner. The BBs on the daily are about to start falling lower and if that happens there’s nothing but air below.


Crude update – yes, I’m still in that one. Many analysts are expecting this to be the highs for now but I’m not so sure. It’s been holding up pretty nicely and those 100-day SMA is starting to compress. I’m leaving my stop below that NLSL at 53.93 – let’s see if she decides to move against the common consensus, wouldn’t be the first time.


Bonds – a possible setup today. I’m actually waiting to be precariously long here today near 161 and if my stop nearby gets touched I’ll turn it into a short. Why? Well, look at the daily panel – could drop like a rock from here until about 154.

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