Inside The Mind Of A Retail Rat

In a column in the Financial Times at the start of the week, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, whom the Obama Administration passed over to appoint Yellen, argued that it would be folly for the Fed to raise rates. Damn it – this is going to be a boring one again – alright you can do this – this is important, pull yourself together…. Now Ray Dalio, the manager of one of the world’s biggest hedge funds, Bridgewater Associates, has weighed in on the debate… what the fuck does he know…  arguing that the Fed, rather than tightening policy (that is, raising rates), might well end up easing instead—purchasing bonds and pumping money into the financial system ... say what??... a policy known as quantitative easing. (Between 2008 and 2014, the Fed carried out such a policy.) OMG this shit is boring… okay, okay, now we’re getting to the good stuff…

mouse_hamburger

When Dalio’s remarks, which he delivered in a note to clients, were first reported, it appeared that he was suggesting the Fed would back off a rate hike, a move Wall Street had been expecting to take place in September or December. On Tuesday, he published an article on LinkedIn ... who the fuck still uses LinkedIn – snort... , in which he clarified his views. “To be clear, we are not saying that we don’t believe that there will be a tightening before there is an easing,” Dalio wrote. “We are saying that we believe that there will be a big easing before a big tight…

Oh for f…s sake, this is IT! How does this crap even make any sense? Am I supposed to buy stocks here or not, for crying out loud!? Or is gold the way to go? It’s fallen a lot lately – gotta bounce at some point! Man, this shit is a lot harder than I thought… perhaps uncle Cletus was right… I should have just invested in his chicken farm instead of opening that damn TDA account.

Alright, what was that guy again who banked some coin recently? Evil Investor or something [googles] – ahh right – Evil Speculator….. Haa-haa – funny guy … damn his charts are really dark, he must be color blind or something. Bad taste in music too, jeezes… Seems to know what he’s doing tho… What? $49 per month? Is he insane? Who can afford that!!? Alright, we’re done here – let’s see what’s on ZeroHedge today, they sound smart and know a lot of stuff…

2015-08-28_USDJPY_briefing

Pssst… wait… is he gone? Oh good – now, let’s get on with our business. USD/JPY is looking like a juicy long position but not just yet. This is looking WAY too easy and I’m waiting for a drop toward the 100-hour SMA just to screw with everyone a little. Probably worth waiting until Sunday night.

2015-08-28_SI_briefing

Silver – good to go here IMO but I’m taking only a tiny position (0.3R) as it’s been a wild ride lately. 14.2 is your minimum stop, mine is actually a bit below that.


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Don’t go crazy now – easy does it ahead of Jackson Hole and all. So, keep yourself busy – I for one have big plans for this weekend…

Hey, evil is as evil does.

Cheers,

A Sad Day For Greece

Don’t get me wrong I truly love seeing the Euro being crushed again this morning and it looks like Greece is going to remain a ongoing drag on both the European Currency Union as well as our already strained patience in the foreseeable future. Which means a weaker Euro paired with a slightly less weak Dollar produces a much more favorable exchange rate for the Mole.

Yet I can’t help myself feeling saddened having once again been proven right. Game theory suggested all along that a Greek exit from the EU would not be beneficial to either party, despite all the saber rattling and brinksmanship we’ve been witnessing in the MSM over the past few weeks (months/years…). Still – to witness Greece capitulate completely in the final hour and sell out its sovereignty to a global collective of banksters was a bit heart wrenching, even for this callous market megalomaniac. I can only hope the Spaniards and Portuguese are paying careful attention and will do what it takes to stave off such a sad state of affairs.

2015-07-13_spoos_briefing

Clearly equity traders are elated as this means more QE is almost guaranteed. The spoos finally filled a gap that was in place for 12 sessions. Although I believe that this is most likely going to continue higher I am currently short with a stop near 2090. It’s a low probability idea which however could pay off well – 1/4R only.

2015-07-13_NQ_briefing

The other 1/4R went to the NQ – same idea here. It’s actually weaker as it hasn’t quite filled its gap yet. May happen later today of course. In both cases I would consider a long position after a stop out. But it depends on the velocity of the move. And even then I’d only throw chump change at this campaign as I simply can’t justify participating in equities in a serious fashion at this point. It was a ridiculous chart three months ago which since has advanced to a spasmodic mess that would have Jackson Pollock go green with envy (and he’d probably throw in a few more colors).

2015-07-13_USDCAD_briefing_free

USD/CAD – now here’s a chart I can sink my teeth into. I’m waiting for a wee bit push higher so that I can short it near that diagonal I painted. Triggers are on the chart and I would have little compunction to flip for a long position after a stop out.

UPDATE 9:50am EDT: USD/CAD shot higher so fast I didn’t get short OR long. Bummer…

More FX fun below the fold – grab your secret decoder ring and join me in the lair.


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See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

prussian

Wednesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2015-04-15_spoos_briefing

Much to my surprise the spoos have held up overnight and my lottery tickets remain intact – thus far. I still consider a breach to the upside a very low probability but if it happens it’ll screw a lot of players as the ‘sideways range’ theory has been plastered all across the financial blogosphere. Moving my stop up to 2087.5 below that hourly NLSL and the 100-hour SMA.

2015-04-15_USDJPY_briefing

USD/JPY – still like the context on the daily panel I’m taking out a long here with a stop below the prior hourly spike low at 119.3.

More short term setups waiting below the fold – please step into my lair:


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Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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