A Sad Day For Greece

Don’t get me wrong I truly love seeing the Euro being crushed again this morning and it looks like Greece is going to remain a ongoing drag on both the European Currency Union as well as our already strained patience in the foreseeable future. Which means a weaker Euro paired with a slightly less weak Dollar produces a much more favorable exchange rate for the Mole.

Yet I can’t help myself feeling saddened having once again been proven right. Game theory suggested all along that a Greek exit from the EU would not be beneficial to either party, despite all the saber rattling and brinksmanship we’ve been witnessing in the MSM over the past few weeks (months/years…). Still – to witness Greece capitulate completely in the final hour and sell out its sovereignty to a global collective of banksters was a bit heart wrenching, even for this callous market megalomaniac. I can only hope the Spaniards and Portuguese are paying careful attention and will do what it takes to stave off such a sad state of affairs.

2015-07-13_spoos_briefing

Clearly equity traders are elated as this means more QE is almost guaranteed. The spoos finally filled a gap that was in place for 12 sessions. Although I believe that this is most likely going to continue higher I am currently short with a stop near 2090. It’s a low probability idea which however could pay off well – 1/4R only.

2015-07-13_NQ_briefing

The other 1/4R went to the NQ – same idea here. It’s actually weaker as it hasn’t quite filled its gap yet. May happen later today of course. In both cases I would consider a long position after a stop out. But it depends on the velocity of the move. And even then I’d only throw chump change at this campaign as I simply can’t justify participating in equities in a serious fashion at this point. It was a ridiculous chart three months ago which since has advanced to a spasmodic mess that would have Jackson Pollock go green with envy (and he’d probably throw in a few more colors).

2015-07-13_USDCAD_briefing_free

USD/CAD – now here’s a chart I can sink my teeth into. I’m waiting for a wee bit push higher so that I can short it near that diagonal I painted. Triggers are on the chart and I would have little compunction to flip for a long position after a stop out.

UPDATE 9:50am EDT: USD/CAD shot higher so fast I didn’t get short OR long. Bummer…

More FX fun below the fold – grab your secret decoder ring and join me in the lair.


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See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

prussian

Wednesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2015-04-15_spoos_briefing

Much to my surprise the spoos have held up overnight and my lottery tickets remain intact – thus far. I still consider a breach to the upside a very low probability but if it happens it’ll screw a lot of players as the ‘sideways range’ theory has been plastered all across the financial blogosphere. Moving my stop up to 2087.5 below that hourly NLSL and the 100-hour SMA.

2015-04-15_USDJPY_briefing

USD/JPY – still like the context on the daily panel I’m taking out a long here with a stop below the prior hourly spike low at 119.3.

More short term setups waiting below the fold – please step into my lair:


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty.

Cheers,

Let’s Not Overthink This

Yes, in case you are wondering, we are seeing clear signs of distribution or accumulation. Which one exactly it is – well, we can’t be sure and my crystal ball is still in the shop. However that said, I don’t see anything disturbing on the momo front – at least not yet. So as usual I’ll have to go with price:

2015-04-09_spoos_update

Since we took this snapshot we’ve dipped down a little again and if you’re looking to grab long positions you may get a better entry near the 25-hour which currently sits near 2075.  On the short side it seems that the 100-hour should be our best guide at this point – it’s been tested and the 25-hour is also near. Anything between the 100-hour and 25 hour SMAs is limbo territory – feel free to grab positions but probably it’s best to use the extremes for inverse entries.

A drop below the 100-hour could drag us a bit lower but it doesn’t get serious until we breach the 100-day at 2057.5. I think from there the bears may have a real shot at dragging this beast lower. I’m sure all that sonds a bit confusing and frankly I can’t offer the perfect entry here either.

2015-04-09_spoos_daily_setup

Or can I? Of course you may simply play the daily setup which is a hammer (thus far) – be long above it and short below it. And in between you can play the swings at your heart’s content ;-)

2015-04-09_GBPCAD_update

GBP/CAD – taken to the woodshed, water boarded, and then disposed of – another great entry bites the dust. Bummer really but it was always experimental as the trend obviously remains to the downside.

2015-04-09_USDJPY_update

USD/JPY – here we are in much much better shape. I’m advancing my stop as indicated and am prepared to hold this sucker through a possible short squeeze. This in fact has been my approach in the past few years – get a seat early (i.e. via the hourly) in promising daily formations. This in fact is how I got into the NQ early as well.

A few setups below the fold for my ever intrepid subs:


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

2015-04-09_putin

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