Wednesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2015-01-28_spoos_briefing

I’m grabbing a short if the spoos touch 2040 and change – stop above 2045. Low odds of a slide but big payoff. On stop out I’d flip for a long with a stop below 2040. A direction will most likely present itself here before the week is over, this thing is coiled up to the max and ready to jump.

2015-01-28_GBPUSD_briefing

Cable – long with a stop below the 25-hour SMA. Only 1/2R as it’s early in this push and one must be ready for a little shake out. Could have legs though.

2015-01-28_crude_briefing

Definitely experimental long on crude – I should have my head checked but this ST formation does look pretty good to me. 1/2R only here – entered right here with a stop below 45.

A few more ST setups below the fold:


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2015-01-28_events

Plenty of event risk later this afternoon but we should be okay for the next five and a half hours.

Happy hunting!

There Be No Butter In Hell

The pendulum of market sentiment continues to swing from one side to the other, inflicting maximum pain on market participants. Not getting chopped to pieces in between is most likely beyond the capabilities of the average retail trader. So if you are participating here and are not getting killed then you are either very good or you are following Evil Speculator. Just kidding, but hey – I’ve had my moments in the sun lately.

2015-01-27_woodshed

So as usual let me break it down for you guys. In a nutshell we are still stuck in the woodshed which spans between ES 2000 and 2060. Any gyrations between only feed prop desks and HFTs bent on squeezing the every last penny out of all this juicy volatility, indiscriminately burning shorts and longs on both sides of the spectrum.

2015-01-27_spoos_volatility

You remember this chart which I posted a day or two ago: Clearly volatility is swinging wildly on both ends but what’s missing are the in-between signals which would allow either bears or bulls to dig in and paint more than a few candles in one direction. You get a fierce spike up or down and then everyone walks away for a day or two. Judging by what we’ve seen on the Zero indicator most of the participation actually happens near the extremes of the current range and during sideways sessions, suggesting accumulation and distribution and thus boat loads of monkey business looming ahead.

Even when we get three or four successive candles in a row they show large ranges and high levels of intra-day volatility (i.e. long wicks) which also serve to run stops and again shake out weak hands. In essence it’s one big nasty woodshed and only the paranoid survive. So join the club!

2015-01-27_spoos_update

I cut my short positions this morning a little after the lower BB was being touched and not retested. But I suspect we are probably going to climb a bit more before the session is over. I’m still long the NQ – miraculously this Thor campaign survived by just a few ticks. So the ES short this morning helped sooth the pain quite effectively.

But in the end always remember - there be no butter in hell!

Bottom Line: Expect volatility – that’s pretty much all you can rely on right now. I suggest you get positioned inversely near either the ES 2k mark or near 2060 (or play the NQ if you like which is almost identical). Nothing really bearish happens until the 2k mark gives way and nothing bullish happens until 2060 is breached. In between it’s anyone’s guess. Oh, and don’t follow your own bias or emotions – this is not the type of tape that favors human reasoning.

2015-01-27_GBPJPY_update

GBP/JPY update – it’s one of today’s morning setup that played out very well. I’m holding on to this one in anticipation of a push higher – perhaps we can turn it into a daily campaign. FYI – this is a very risky move as this formation could easily turn into a last kiss goodbye (LKGB) and fall off the plate. So it’s permissible here to take partial profits and walk away – the upside resistance is pretty considerable.

2015-01-27_natgas_update

Natgas – very rarely do we catch such a smooth entry on this beast – Mrs. Market must be giving us a break today. Same game here – it’s really at a daily inflection point and if it can make it above the 3.0 mark then it’ll burn the shorts medieval style. Odds are pretty low this will happen – but the payoff would be oh so great ;-)

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Cheers,

 

Late Monday Quickie

I really don’t have much to add to this morning’s musings. We got a little fake out at the open but equities have been holding the line and our ST campaign is in good shape. However we are still trading below the 2062 inflection point I established early last week – it needs to be conquered and that post haste.

2015-01-26_spoos_update

There’s a typo on the chart – I meant 2062 and we need to close above it – period. Until that happens the bears still have a sliver of a chance to take this dog lower. However, that said – I hate this tape and consider it high risk territory.

2015-01-26_zero

Once again participation (courtesy of the Zero indicator) is non-existent, suggesting this advance is driven by a few major players. I don’t wager to guess which way it’ll lead but what I do know is that intra-day volatility is here to stay with us for a while. Even if this resolves higher and paints new high there is no telling when we turn on a dime again and suddenly dive lower.

Just for the record – I am not talking my own book here. I’m actually long the ES from this morning and still long in my NQ Thor campaign, which I professed last week was emotionally difficult to enter but thus far seems to be paying off.

2015-01-26_soybean_oil_entry

Otherwise I want you to keep an eye on soybean oil – not because it’s delicious but because it’s at a LT inflection point and thus we are looking for opportunities for a snap higher. The best approach IMO is to look for ST entries and build ourselves up from there. I don’t see any right now but let’s put it on our watch list. A drop off the plate is of course a possibility but unfortunately I don’t see a good entry for that right now, perhaps if we correct higher for a LKGB first.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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    1. Wednesday Morning Briefing
    2. There Be No Butter In Hell
    3. Setup Tuesday!
    4. Late Monday Quickie
    5. Held Together By Duct Tape
    6. No Juice
    7. My New Best Friend
    8. Inflicting Maximum Pain
    9. Riding This Beast Into The Sunset
    10. Let’s Dive Right In