Last night’s dramatic gaps at the open across the board have been followed by systematic reversals. Before I went to bed my wife had actually joked that I should run to the ATM and clean it out. Well, when I got up this morning I wished that I had followed her advice:
Because that sweet EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.095 is no more. The entire gap has been filled and I can only assume that Greece suddenly doesn’t matter anymore or that a new batch of hopium has hit the streets in expectation of the July 5th referendum.
Being a proponent of game theory I personally believe that the Greeks will vote to stick with the Euro – both sides simply have too much to lose in any other scenario. I also imagine all those Greeks standing in line at the bank today during the smoldering summer heat and that may dampen their resolve to ‘stick it to the EC’ and go it on their own. Don’t get me wrong – as I suggested yesterday my notion is that Greece would actually be better off over the long term but I just don’t see it happen. Fortunately we only have a few days to wait and I’m very much looking forward for this dreaded saga to finally meet some level of resolution.
Gold also just filled its gap and we are back from whence we came (Friday). Fortunately Scalpius was able to snag a few R here (see below) – that’s certainly a good start.
Equities also on the rebound but thus far it’s been rather modest. The level we should keep our eye on is 2053.5 which marks the weekly Net-Line Sell Level (NLSL) and we traded merely two ticks above it last night. So definitely a technical level to watch and probably the last bastion of support as the 25-week SMA is currently at 2072.
Skynard grabbed a few longs at the open and that took some balls – big props for that mate. I refrained from getting involved after having spent over 25 hours last weekend coding and refining Scalpius as well as refactoring CrazyIvan into a leaner and meaner 2.0 edition (see previous post). Suffice to say I’m exhausted but clearly this will not be a week to rest or relax as volatility is upon us.
Scalpius grabbed a nice long position on Gold (and crude) near the lows – not a bad start! Unfortunately it was in a demo/test account – no real action just yet as it’s in early alpha.
Let Mrs. Evil handle the forex action moving forward.
Obviously I am not eager to touch anything right now – too much gaping action and it’s too late now to touch any of those moves. Let’s see what happens over the next few hours – I’ll be sure to put up a post later after the open once we see more participation.
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We got movement people! And obviously I’m not talking about equities where we’re still spasmodically bouncing around in the same six month trading range. Booooring! Unless of course you are the evil lair’s official Swing Slayer and that coveted title is already taken by Skynard. You will have to defeat him first and then send me one of his digits to assume his position. It also helps if you either have at least one dragon or an army of White Walkers at your disposal. Either that or just send me money – I am surprisingly corruptible.
Okay, let’s get the tedious charts out of the way first. Equities – I’m risking a tiny long position if it touches 2095 with a stop below 2090.
Alright so I was talking about movement, remember? Plenty of that across the softs in recent days (i.e. corn, soy, wheat, etc.) – you guys really need to get yourself some futures accounts. Speaking of which, do you still remember the soybean diet I pimped the other day? Soybean oil has advanced beautifully and I’m now putting my stop below a recent spike low. I think that one has potential to go all the way.
On the actual soybeans contract it’s time to head for the hills after a beautiful stab higher. Sure it could push even further but my target has been hit and that’s that. I’ll keep an eye on it however for new entry opportunities – preferably after a little shake out.
GBPCAD – fascinating formation on the daily – rarely seen anything like that on the forex side. I’m happy to play the swings here just for fun but I reckon that it’ll be ready to pick a direction early next week. Be careful usually you’ll see a fake breach first – if you are really good at this game then you can try to play the fake breach with an inverse position. Paging Skynard the Swing Slayer!
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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. If there’s anything interesting to share (and if I see you guys actually showing up – I know it’s summer… yuk) then I’ll see you guys later this afternoon.
I’m seeing very little participation on the Zero Lite today which makes this rather dangerous turf. Unless you are already well positioned (meaning in profits and are trailing) I suggest you stay the hell out of equities right now. This has tape banging written all over it – meaning due to meager participation we may just slide off the plate or suddenly rip higher without any warning.
Compare the Zero signal accompanying yesterday’s sell off with today – complete flatline. Anyway, you have been warned, so don’t come crying to Mole if you get your member slammed trying to be clever here.
I’m seeing three levels of possible support on the S&P E-Mini futures. 1 – the 25-day SMA near 2096 – very weak. 2 – the 100-day SMA at 2083 – more plausible. 3 – the 2065 mark as it lines up with recent drops engineered to scare the children.
This is some nasty tape and I suggest you focus on other markets. Today I have been otherwise occupied but I’ll be mining for goodies again tomorrow morning. Until then please keep it together and stay frosty.
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