Bounce It

The magic pendulum swung back the other way and Friday’s decision to take partial profits (according to system rules) managed to lock in at least 50% of the profits accumulated on the way down. Of course the question rattling around in your retail rodent brain right now is whether or not this is just a temporary bounce to shake out a few weak hands (i.e. you) or if this thing manages to squeeze higher.

If you want my advice – just bounce it all. You should always always know what your campaign will do at each step of the way – ahead of taking entries. Remember that the game always has and always will revolve around pressing your emotional buttons - and there’s a wide range of keys available – take a look:

2015-03-16_brain

You think of yourself as a rational person? Well, think again – 90% of what we do is steered by habits and emotions. Just look at how much of your brain is actually devoted to emotional interpretations and responses in comparison with rational analysis and the exercise of judgment. So if you are still exposed to the downside all these sections of your brain are most likely feeding you a party mix comprised of disappointment, fear of losing more of your prior paper profits, temptation to double down and sell the rip, doubts about your prior analysis, anger at not taking full profits last Friday, etc.

Mind you this is NOT the time to second guess your system (if you have one) or to react as opposed to simply act. I think this is an essential maxim every trader should be print, frame, and hang on the wall facing you during your trading activities:

ACT – NEVER REACT.

2015-03-16_ES_update

The hourly and daily price panels are looking pretty bullish at this point. However we are at a short term threshold which will determine if this leads higher. Notice how the BBs and SMAs on the hourly are starting to slightly swing higher – if this continues into the close then the bulls take this one home and probably squeeze things higher. So watch the next two hours – the bears need to act now in order to prevent a massive squeeze to the upside. Accordingly I have put my final stop near the 25-day SMA which is probably more than generous.

2015-03-16_spoos_weekly

Weekly – the bulls definitely won the first important battle. That NLSL and the 25-week SMA held up like bosses and unless challenged early this week it will henceforth act as additional support.

2015-03-16_VIX_ratio

Let’s take a look at market internals – the SPX:VIX ratio is looking a bit suspicious as it’s trailing price. This may be nothing but I am sharing additional considerations below the fold.

2015-03-16_zero

The Zero super flat today – no participation. Which leads into two charts that grabbed my attention – please get your secret decoder ring and join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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RainbowPamPortVila

UPDATE on Ivan Krastins – I am happy to report that I just received notice from someone in contact with Ivan. Apparently the old buzzard managed to survive a category 5 cyclone wearing his Chinese wok as a helmet and by chaining himself to a boat anchor. He has no electricity or internet and his computers have been damaged. But he does have phone access and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s calling in futures orders as we speak. Well done old chap – if you need anything please don’t hesitate to ask – we’re here for you. Unfortunately Scott is in Bali right now otherwise I’m sure he’d be on a boat by now. I have an old MBP I could ship him or perhaps someone closer to Ivan could help him out? Getting things over there will be difficult for the next few weeks and any Aussies or Kiwis please steps up – he needs our help.

PUBLIC COURTESY ANNOUNCEMENT: I am heading to San Diego for a day and am scheduled to return to Los Angeles tomorrow early afternoon. I won’t be bringing my lappy as I’ll be on my feet most of the time down there. This means that tomorrow’s post will most likely be after the market closes. Thank you for your understanding – I am doing my best to keep the blog flowing during my time on the beautiful West Coast. By the way the weather here has been fantastic – super sunny with dry heat – just like the Mole likes it :-)

Cheers,

The Eagle Has Landed

My apologies for the late post today – it took me a while to get set up this morning as the storage place with all my equipment is all the way out in Los Feliz. And half way there I realized that we idiots had forgotten the key for the padlock, which added another 30 minutes to the trip. But I’m all set up now with my gorgeous Apple Cinema display and a surprisingly fast Internet connection. As you recall I already shifted my circadian rhythm over the past week and in general it feels like I never left Los Angeles. It’s amazing how quickly the brain re-adjusts to a familiar environment. Before you know it you’re cruising all over L.A., cursing at slow drivers of a certain ethnic group, A/C and stereo cranked up, sending hapless pedestrians diving for the sidewalk. You know – Los Angelino style :-)

LA_March_sunset_1

Here’s a snapshot I took last night here in Hollywood on Beverly right at the tail end of a gorgeous sunset. Today’s going to be hot – somewhere around 89 and it’ll breach the 90 mark tomorrow. I love the dry heat here and couldn’t be happier.

2015-03-12_UVOL_DVOL

Alright, let’s talk markets. As Scott pointed out – accumulation was in the works yesterday as evidenced by the NYSE UVOL/DVOL ratio. Buying pressure was solid and constant all the way into the close.

2015-03-12_zero

The Zero painted a pretty pronounced divergence on the hourly panel yesterday. Today’s session however (and yesterday) was driven by minimal momentum/participation suggesting prop desks and bots were running this.

2015-03-12_SPX_VIX

On the SPX/VIX panel the ratio is leading pure price and I think this could easily squeeze higher.

2015-03-12_spoos_update

So let’s look at the daily E-Mini which bounced at the 100-day SMA and the lower 25-day BB. The latter was actually the one which has been observed in recent history and the two together offered a nice opportunity for the bulls. Had I posted yesterday I would (like Scott) suggested to lighten up your short exposure here.

2015-03-12_LT_spoos_update

Long term we also had the 25-week SMA and a NLSL at 2036.5 – both of which I pointed out on Tuesday.

2015-03-12_NQ_update

The NQ is lagging the spoos which is interesting as it’s been the more bullish index recently. As you can see the weekly NLBL at 4286.25 has held up nicely so far.

2015-03-12_silver_setup

Alright, let’s talk setups – we have beautiful ones on our roster today. Here’s silver which I love short here until 15.565 where I’ll be long 1/2R, adding another 1/2R above 15.66. Frankly I would be happy either way – short or long and I have no directional bias.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs – please step into my Californian holiday lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

That’s it – see you guys tomorrow. FYI – while I’m here on the West Coast for the coming three weeks I will most likely post only once a day. Unless I fall out of bed very early – meaning near 6:00am. And that frankly happens rarely ;-)

Cheers,

One For The Road

This will be my last post before until Thursday as I’m heading out to catch my plane to Paris and then to Los Angeles. This actually works out better than having to take the AVE to Madrid and then grabbing a flight to L.A., especially now that Iberia apparently has apparently ceased servicing the direct route. Let’s just hope those frogs won’t be on strike today – you never know, but at least it’s still out of season over here in Europe.

Los_Angeles_skyline

Suffice to say that I don’t even know what time it is anymore – over the past week I have slowly delayed my sleeping cycle and am now operating on Eastern Standard time. The idea is to pop a Xanax on the plane and hopefully not being awaken by the fat guy they’ve invariably booked right next to me. Anyway, Scott has graciously volunteered to post tomorrow, and his timing couldn’t be any better as we have plenty of movement across the board.

2015-03-10_zero

So let’s talk tape! On the Zero we’ve had a pretty wild day with swings on both sides of the spectrum but still favoring the short side. However I do see a bit of a divergence on the hourly (left panel) which is probably due to the fact that we had barely any positive signal spikes yesterday. You guys are probably wondering where we may find support, let’s see:

2015-03-10_spoos_update

The E-Mini futures are hanging somewhere in limbo and the only context I see is the weekly NLSL at 2036.5. We haven’t touched it yet and I would like to see that before I suggesting taking partial profits.

2015-03-10_NQ_update

I’m posting the weekly and monthly NQ chart here in order to give you guys a bit of perspective. I don’t really have to say it, right? Just look at this monthly panel and marvel at this beautiful trend to the upside. That’s a one in a lifetime move, folks and you’ll probably have to heavily invest in cryonics to ever see anything of the kind again. Now, we are near the monthly NLBL at 4348 here and that ought to be good for a bit of support. On the weekly we got 4286 and 4201.5 plus the 25-week SMA in case we drop lower. I think we’ll probably see an obligatory bounce first.

2015-03-10_gold_update

Update on my open positions – Gold remains lackluster and I’m closing it out with meager profits. The CAD pairs all got stopped out but at least at break/even – so I got out clean on those.

2015-03-10_GBPNZD_update

GBP/NZD is on a roll now and I’m advancing my stop to 2.0628.

2015-03-10_GBPCAD_upate

GBP/CAD – almost got stopped out on that one by a tick! I’m letting this sucker run and keeping my stop at break/even for now.

2015-03-10_CADJPY_update

CAD/JPY – stop out with tiny profits as it turned on a dime. Keep an eye on this one guys – I love the context on the daily and we are now back at the 25-day SMA plus a few Net-Lines. Perhaps you’re able to grab this one long above the SMA or short below it.

2015-03-10_ZF_update

ZF – that was a very speculative entry but it’s slowly grinding higher. Stop now at 118.200 – very comfortable to keep this one running while I’m stuck at 35,000 feet.

And that’s me signing off here in Europe. You are in good hands (i.e. Scott) and our open positions are flashing green. Subs – everything is running as usual and I’m going to put up new Thor setups (if there are any) in the next hour. However if there are any unforeseen problems then you’ll have to wait around 24 hours before you’ll hear back. Alright, that’s it for now – I (hopefully) see you all state side.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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