Paying Attention Pays Off

Early Thursday morning I announced the following: “We are about to see a large move on the forex and futures front. Equities are simply the tail being wagged by a big (and currently snarling) dog. Time to pay attention – summer or not – these are conditions in which to bank some coin.”

2015-07-27_spoos_briefing

I don’t think many heeded my advice – at least judging by what I’m seeing in the comment section. Only problem is that big moves happen when we least expect it and the current drive lower one could turn into something bigger. Given that we are approaching weekly support I am going to take half off the table and leave the remainder in the run for a potential low vol summer dip lower.

2015-07-27_ZB_briefing

The 30-year bonds are another recent example. That thing had long squeeze written all over it and I grabbed a small position because I was already holding ZN since near the floor. It’s paying off already and I’m taking partial profits as it’s approaching an old NLBL. The rest I’m holding for a continued run higher with a trail a respectable distance away.

2015-07-27_ZN_briefing

And here’s the ZN – I doubt anyone followed me into that one near the lows. It’s summer after all – and the moon cycle wasn’t perfectly aligned – plus you know – Putin. Still, it has paid off very handsomely since and I just took partial profits here as well. I’m sure it’ll retest the 100-day SMA in the coming days but to me this has the potential of turning into a runner.

2015-07-27_EURCAD_briefing

Speaking of runners – EUR/CAD was a trend trade candidate a week ago. I mused to my subs that nobody in their right mind would want to take it long near the upper BB and that’s exactly why I converted an initial short term campaign into a daily one. It’s been one sweet run already and it has decent odds to make it all the way.

Moral of the story: We can discuss the academic ins and outs of trading until the cows come home but the one and only thing that matters in the end is your ability to pull the trigger when a promising campaign is staring you in the face. Of course not all of my entries pan out – but the ones which do (my ratio is about 50/50) usually make up for the losers and then some. And that’s all there is to it, folks. Cut your losers short and let your winners run.

Happy Monday by the way – let’s see if we’ll see a bit of participation while Skynard is taking a well deserved week off.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Setups Setups Setups!

It’s going to be a busy morning as setups are crawling out of the woodworks and everything must go! On the equities side further weakness overnight has brought us to the first real hurdle:

2015-07-22_spoos_briefing

That daily Net-Line Sell Level at 2102.75 is one of three that should start slowing momentum a bit. If we manage to push above 2106.75 then I’ll grab a few long positions with a stop below the recent spike low (wherever that’ll be).

2015-07-22_ZN_briefing

Bonds – I got kicked out of ZB the other day by just a few ticks which was highly annoying but it happens in the best families. The hourly NLBL breach here on the 10-year contract was good enough reason for me to try another stab at this. Conservative stop below the 100-hour SMa.

2015-07-22_AUDJPY_briefing

AUD/JPY – what’s to be said here – long of course with a stop a few pips below the 100-hour BB.

2015-07-22_EURCAD_update

EUR/CAD update – unlike ZN that one stuck with the script and I’m moving my stop to 1.414 now. You may recall that I am waiting for it to switch into trend mode. We are close but not there just yet.

We’re just getting warmed up – more setups below the fold:


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Decent participation here in recent days, given that it’s mid summer and all – keep it up steel rats!

Cheers,

cheesy

I’m Your Huckleberry

I’m sensing a possible inflection point across various market verticals this morning. Now if you ask me what I mean by ‘sensing’ and if I have completely lost my mind then I would respond with ‘divergences and assorted correlated price action’ to the former and ‘affirmative’ to the latter. Let’s just say that I’ll be bull’s huckleberry up here – but only until 2124.25 – my boldness comes with price limits.

2015-07-21_spoos_briefing

All jokes aside – I’m a bit pressed for time this morning so let me walk you through my nefarious plan. Basically equities seem to be slowing down and are clearly diverging. The YM for instance is already pointing down while the NQ is still holding strong. This could of course mean nothing but the 25-hour BB is looking like a python at this point and is seamed by Net-Lines on the up and down side. All that represents a reasonable inflection point I plan to exploit:

  • I’m already short 1/2R with a stop above 2124.25.
  • If we drop below  2115 I’ll be adding 1/2R to my exposure.
  • If stopped out I’ll be long with a stop below the lower 25-hr BB to ride the final phase of the ongoing squeeze.

That’s very little risk with potentially high rewards. Just the way I like it.

2015-07-21_AUDCAD_briefing

AUD/CAD is also looking good and I think it’s a great short (didn’t mark that on my chart) and that’s my current position. UNTIL of course we push above that diagonal – which is when I plan to be long.

More goodies below the fold.


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Promising price action today and other setups may be developing – so get busy and let me know how you fare.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Thursday Road Map
    2. Volatility Wave Surfing
    3. Dangling By A Thread
    4. Paying Attention Pays Off
    5. Sell Off Thursday Wrap Up
    6. Pay Attention Now
    7. Setups Setups Setups!
    8. I’m Your Huckleberry
    9. Who’s The Sucker?
    10. Mind Hacking