Well I’ll Be Damned!

I keep regurgitating the fact that having an opinion as a trader means abso-diddly nothing. Case in point are a series of previously juicy looking futures campaigns which quickly met their maker either last night or earlier this morning. Gone are my sugar long, the coffee short, copper short, and the silver short. All of them seemed ready to put the pedal to the metal but wound up being led to the woodshed in the end. Fortunately I had the good sense of advancing my stops to the break/even mark when I saw a consolidated reversal across the board. I’m not much of a correlation trader but I can take a damn hint ;-)


But strangely the campaigns I was most skeptical about are now progressing nicely – at least thus far. Last night’s long entry on the spoos was rather experimental and I’m still not convinced that this thing resolves higher. But on the off chance that it does then we may get the squeeze of all squeezes and I’m well positioned to ride it all the way. My stop has now been advanced to the break/even mark – officially joining the strong hands club.


Speaking of which: Crude is finally off to the races and there’s someone smiling over in the Kremlin tonight – and of course down here in Valencia as well. The lowly Mole tried three times to catch a seat on this particular bus and it seems my efforts are in the process of finally being rewarded. It’s not impossible to expect a retest of the 100-day SMA but the odds thus far support continuation – perhaps after a obligatory shake out candle or two. My target is 64 – yes, that’s right, I have nefarious plans for this one. Crude world domination is only days away ;-0

Well, that’s all I have to offer tonight – I’m running a bit late over here and I have nothing new on the setup front. Of course I’ll be back tomorrow morning, bright eyed and bushy tailed as always. Remember – one day at a time – consistency above all is key.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


Wednesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.


Much to my surprise the spoos have held up overnight and my lottery tickets remain intact – thus far. I still consider a breach to the upside a very low probability but if it happens it’ll screw a lot of players as the ‘sideways range’ theory has been plastered all across the financial blogosphere. Moving my stop up to 2087.5 below that hourly NLSL and the 100-hour SMA.


USD/JPY – still like the context on the daily panel I’m taking out a long here with a stop below the prior hourly spike low at 119.3.

More short term setups waiting below the fold – please step into my lair:

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty.


Bait And Switch Tuesday

Guys – don’t let this happen to you! If you’ve been trading equities for more than a few months then you probably have seen the following play out: Equities are dropping near the open, everything is screaming sell. Suddenly there’s a spike to the upside which triggers more bids and results in a short squeeze continuing most of the session. So how to keep from getting screwed like this and in many other ways on a recurring basis?


Simple! Sign up for the Zero which shows you real participation on a 5-minute basis. What you are looking at above is a textbook bullish divergence on the Zero Lite during the quick drop post NYSE open. May I also add that yesterday’s sell off had very little juice as evidenced by the tiny signal range accompanying it. That’s not always a sure sign of a bear trap but it bodes paying attention the following day near the open.

What worries me more however is the ‘heartbeat’ like signal on the hourly Zero (left panel). I have seen this a few weeks ago and it preceded a shake out a few days after. Which brings me to the next chart:


The E-Mini is continuing to flesh out a sideways wedge of some sort and I have a hard time justifying entries anywhere except near the extremes. However, that said – the hourly is looking good and I just added 1/4R with a stop below 2084.25 (VWAP). Low odds on this one succeeding however, you have been warned.


My NQ campaign met Sir Gregor Clegane today who made quick business out of my long positions by chopping them into pieces. Not a big deal as they were nicely in profit but a shame nevertheless given the jump higher.


Updates updates – Sugar looking good but I’m moving my stop to break/even as I don’t trust a concerted number of pull backs all across the futures and forex.


Coffee – always suspected this one may be a trap and I closed it out near break/even. This one just doesn’t have the mojo and I’m too correlated with all the other open futures positions already.


Copper – looked so juicy and then pulled back. Still like this one but I’m moving my stop to break/even as well.


Silver – also moving my stop to break/even. Not a definite rule in my systems but when it happens across the board I think it’s more than justifiable, especially given my current exposure. So let’s see how many of them survive the night and into tomorrow – if they hold below I think we may have real runner potential as this was quite a shake out today.


Crude – I bet you all forgot about this one already! I took a second long position on the 9th and so far it’s remained in play courtesy of my more conservative stop below the 50 mark. It’s finally tickling the 100-day SMA now and perhaps it’ll muster up enough mojo to finally break free. Anyway, keeping my stop below the 50 mark as I’ve been waiting for this one to play out a while now.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


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    1. Chasing The Market’s Tail
    2. Still In The Game
    3. Nothing Thursday
    4. Well I’ll Be Damned!
    5. Wednesday Morning Briefing
    6. Bait And Switch Tuesday
    7. Futures Setups Galore
    8. Monday Morning Briefing
    9. Go Gadget Go!
    10. Friday Morning Briefing