CrazyIvan was introduced in late August of 2013 and, as our luck would have it, spent the rest of that year getting its butt kicked. Somewhere in November we realized that something was awry and we dug deep to figure out what exactly was going on. We had been prepared for draw downs but what we were seeing was outside our original system specifications. It took us a few weeks and in the end it was once again proven that premature optimization is the root of all evil. It turns out that the low volatility market filters we had deployed, convinced they would improve the system during sideways periods, apparently were the culprit. We then simplified and replaced our volatility filters in [...]

Our resident Heisengerb posted an inspiring video by Nick Rage this afternoon. As I was watching it I thought it to be the perfect segue into covering one of the most glaring but at the same time most ignored hurdles standing in the way of becoming (and remaining) a successful trader. I meant to write a post about it for a while now and Nick’s video succinctly covers many of the basic lessons I wanted to convey. So I let Nick to the heavy lifting now after which I’ll catch up with you and apply his lessons to the very path we are pursuing here at Evil Speculator:

Still with me? Watched the whole thing? Good!

Now in that video you just watched you [...]

It’s that time of the month again when we take a step back from the daily grind and revisit some of our more salient point and figure charts. So grab a cup of java or your favorite tea – we have a lot of material to cover. If you are a P&F noob then don’t despair – here’s a quick and dirty write up which should should answer all the questions you may have and never dared to ask. Let’s first delve into the equities side which has lead us beyond previously established bullish price objectives:

S&P 500 – met its 1390 PO and decided to just keep going. I have already suggested price targets on my weekly SPX chart but have [...]

Let me precede this post with a warning: I am not saying that it’s impossible for equities to push any higher. Quite on the contrary – there are signs that indicate that we soon may run into a little short squeeze. If that outlook sounds contradictory to you then you may want to go back and read Volar’s excellent excerpt on platykurtotic vs. leptokurtotic markets which he posted almost a year ago. Simply put – it all depends – August is a good month for trend traders and if you are betting on mean reversion you may get burned.

Now as stainless steel rats we are sworn to trade by our rules (whatever they are) and to only take setups which strongly [...]