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July 15, 2015

The Reckoning

For months now we have been watching equities flail around sideways, plotting increasingly spasmodic gyrations which have tested the patience of even the most battle hardened veterans. The recent series of gaps and overnight price jumps have only added to our growing list of evidence suggesting that we are witnessing an increasingly unhinged market. Adjusting to and surviving unscathed in such market conditions has been no easy task but I can truly say that we have negotiated some of the most challenging tape in years like bosses.

But now the time of reckoning approaches and I want you all to take a deep breath, lean back, and detach yourself from daily chaos that has [...]

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July 28, 2014

Insurance Is Still Cheap

Now, before you do anything else I need you to first read Scott’s equities related perspectives which he graciously posted earlier this morning. It’s spot on and I could not agree more. As it so happens however I have quite a bit of material to add today – you may want to grab a cup of coffee or your favorite tea.

A little caveat before you read on: None of the below suggests that we are switching into bearish mode (just yet). Whenever you look at long term charts remember that they are just that – LONG term charts and that means that price usually takes weeks, if not months, to produce conclusive evidence suggesting that the ongoing trend has been [...]

 
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January 18, 2013

The Day Risk Died

I’m getting pretty giddy down in my Mediterranean winter lair and you probably know why. The last time the VIX was venturing below its 13 mark was in June of 2007, after which it never looked back, until today! We’ve been through some rather turbulent times since and despite the fact that none of the root causes of the soon ensuing market crash got fixed (quite on the contrary) volatility suffered a sudden coronary today and was unceremoniously buried below the NYSE. Farewell – unlike this silly planking fad you shall be missed…

Okay, let’s get serious – I have no idea what caused that sudden drop to the 12.45 mark today but I like [...]

 
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January 8, 2013

What, Me Worry?

Frankly I’m stunned by the level of complacency among market participants right now. Just a bit over a week ago the world was about to end and since then volatility dropped a whopping 40%? Maybe I am not seeing the forest for all the trees but I may I not so humbly submit whether or not this in itself is a representation of a healthy equities market? Just saying…

Despite the fact that our own SPX point & figure chart is insisting on a bullish price objective of 1600 I could not fathom recommending to short vega unless you really really know what you are doing and are capable of cutting your positions in a heartbeat as soon as you spot the heat coming [...]

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11652TOKYO - AUGUST 17:  People sit behind ice blocks at Icebar Tokyo on August 17, 2009 in Tokyo, Japan. The entrance fee of 3500 Yen with one drink and customers can borrow a coat upon entry. Everything in the bar including the counter, the wall, table, glasses, chairs are made from blocks of ice cut from Sweden's Torne river.  (Photo by Junko Kimura/Getty Images)
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