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June 5, 2011

Timing Is (Almost) Everything

With almost everything in life there is an element of seasonality to be considered before embarking on a particular activity, journey, or mission. For instance, when attempting to ascend a previously unconquered mountain you most likely want to first observe weather patterns throughout several seasons and then pick the best route at the best time – which combined will increase your odds of reaching that coveted peak. When planning a trip to Paris you will most likely consider spring or autumn instead of the dead of winter. Skiing in the Austrian Alps is best enjoyed in late fall or early spring and you won’t be finding many operating skilifts in mid June. So we can all [...]

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January 5, 2011

Now Or Not

Last month I showed you guys my spiral calendar chart which suggested that we may see a meaningful retracement in early January:

As you can see there’s an F17 and a F21 coming to a point either this or next week. This occurs at the very same time a large number of bears are expecting a pull back – which is exactly what’s making me so nervous. Usually, what everyone knows is not worth knowing, so I’m looking for clues that may either support or discredit this time cycle date.

[amprotect=nonmember] Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. The rest of you guys will have to wait until tomorrow – sorry. If [...]

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December 23, 2010

Merry Christmas!

That’s right – I revel in being politically incorrect. It’s almost Christmas on my calendar and I enjoy responding to ‘Happy Holidays’ wishes with a Clint Eastwood sneer and a stubborn ‘Merry Christmas to you too!’. Anyway, after being pounded by a six day series of rainstorms the heavens suddenly opened up yesterday afternoon to bestow Los Angeles with a beautiful Christmas present:

Contrast that gorgeous view with the nasty weather Europe is having to put up with right now and you understand why I moved my Teutonic butt to California almost two decades ago. As much as I cherish the Christmas season – I can assure you [...]

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September 27, 2010

Red Flag Day

The heat is on – and not just in the markets, it seems.  After having enjoyed almost spring like weather all summer here in Los Angeles, temperatures suddenly popped into the 100 degree (Fahrenheit) range just a few days into fall. Just in case things get out of control I have my put Red Flag Emergency Team on standby:

The selection criteria to join this exclusive unit are extremely stringent and only the most talented and well trained applicants gain acceptance after undergoing a long series of physical and psychological tests. As you can imagine the failure rate is high – and only the best make it to the bottom

Although a hot early fall may not be [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Herding BiasHerding Bias
    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security procedures we had a … more
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