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February 26, 2013

The Day After

See there are two types of traders – the ones on the inside who make things happen and the ones on the outside who ask you what the heck just happened. Unfortunately most of us have to eek out a living on the outside and as such we best ignore the news as it just represents a feeble human need to attempt to rationalize events that have already happened. Yesterday morning everyone on  the outside got the legs cut from underneath them and by the time the smoke settled the big question on everyone’s mind was ‘what the hell just happened?’ Which was the cue for a multitude of explanations and rationalizations from pundits across the land (European elections, [...]

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February 5, 2013

And That Is Why We Follow The Charts

Last evening I proposed that the ongoing shake out was merely an attempt to scare the children. Seems like my bold claims weren’t that far off the mark as our support lines held up just famously. And that, my dear ladies and leeches, is why we follow the charts.

And further earning my keep here I also proposed a nice long opportunity on the E-Mini this morning. I hope you took it as it’s now time to take partial profits. Actually since I took this snapshot it’s been pushing higher and is almost at target – time to cash out. You are welcome! Evil is as evil does

Strangely enough – the recent gyrations on the VIX have us now [...]

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December 10, 2012

Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift

Seems the bots are running some Christmas shopping algo today as the tape is drifting around without much participation. In case you haven’t heard – the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets for the last time this year on Tuesday and Wednesday. Timing is the main reason why this meeting is receiving special attention. Just so happens that Operation Twist comes to an end on December 31st and and Bernanke is expected to announce fresh measures to keep the party going. Whatever happens pre- and post-announcement, it should stir up quite a bit of volatility, So I suggest you keep your exposure small and your stops at arm’s length.

The E-Mini is [...]

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December 4, 2012

Lambs To The Slaughter

We are witnessing what basically has turned into to a continuation of yesterday’s coordinated sell-off. Now, call me a cynic (I’ve been called worse) but this slow motion downhill ride is looking way too orderly for my taste. I’m not seeing any emotion here – where is the drama and the tears? In other words the tape is being walked down and I suspect this is simply an engineered shake out.

Case in point: the Zero Lite has now completely flatlined, which strongly suggests little to no participation. Translation: odds are the tape is dropping because a few large players want it to head this way, not because anyone is being forced to cover. Which [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Sunk Cost EffectSunk Cost Effect
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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