Dropping Da Bomb!

To the few of you who actually bothered to show up for work today: You are about to get rewarded as I simply cannot believe the plethora of high quality setups I’m coming across today. I could literally post dozens of charts here but we’ll keep it limited to our usual healthy diet comprised of our four major food groups.

Before I drop the proverbial setup motherlode let’s however catch up with what’s going on in equities. I’ll be dropping you at 60,000 feet from which we’ll free fall into our first setup of the day, the E-Mini:

Our SPX point and figure chart flagged us a low pole reversal warning on Friday. This means the bearish case is now officially on notice. This is perfect as it correlates very nicely with an inflection point play I’m seeing across the board:

The weekly E-Mini panel has us at the 25-week SMA. So the question from a more long term perspective is whether or not this is a reversal of the weekly sell signal or a last kiss goodbye (LKGB).

The daily (and hourly) panel provide us with a few more clues. As you can see the daily spoos painted an outside period on Friday which apparently will be followed up by an inside day today. And all of that is happening right at the 100-day SMA. How perfect is that? This is conclusive evidence that we are at an inflection point that separates us from the annual bear hunting season scheduled for December.

On the hourly panel we are currently near the 25-hour SMA – you can use that if you are fishing for early entries.

Now here’s our first setup. As I already suggested the daily currently dons an OP followed by an ID. Thus I am happy to take a breach tomorrow (i.e. tonight) in either direction. Bear in mind that the trigger line may have changed by the time you read this. If you don’t know how to trade an inside day setup then please consult our handy cheat sheet.

Alright, I suggest you brace yourself for this browser busting setup mega-bomb – the Mole has gone nuclear!
More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Let’s start with currencies. The USD/CHF is painting a delicious ID + NR4 combination. I only want to be long here tomorrow (or overnight) if we breach the upper trigger.

NZD/USD – inside day after a long candle up. Here I favor the downside although I would consider a small long.

GBP/USD a.k.a. cable – almost identical setup and thus we play the same game.

But wait there is more! EUR/USD – same setup!

Not to be outdone the EUR/AUD is now donning a dual inside day. I would consider it my patriotic duty (I’m also European) to take either direction here once we get a breach.

And even the AUD/USD got the memo – inside day + NR4 – you know what to do.

And ole’ bucky doesn’t want to be left out – also an inside day. We are near 1.3 and I fear my exchange rate may flush down the toilet. In terms of the setup I would prefer a long breach here but as I always say, never underestimate suicidal tendencies in the Dollar pit. Two reasons to hope for a bounce then.

Commodities – we have soybeans right at the 25-hour SMA – very nice long setup but it’s only a short term trade (for now). This could be a nice way to hitch a ride off a floor pattern so let’s look at it tomorrow and then decide.

Bonds – possible last kiss goodbye here. I am currently short with a sto above the 25-hour SMA. Willing to be long if she pushes back above the 100-hour SMA.

Silver – another short term setup. I want to be long here with a stop below the 25-hour.

Gold – almost a perfect OP/ID setup – will take either direction here. If both silver and gold are pushing higher then we could witness a medieval style bear squeeze slaughter fest. But again – I’m ambivalent on both – gold however is the one I trade both up or down.

Now for something completely different. Sugar is looking sweet again – possible floor pattern and I want to be long here near the diagonal. Well, I admit it’s a speculative trade so only get exposed with a handful of contracts.

Nutty gas – as you already know I’m long here with a stop below the Bollinger. But I just realized that this just happens to be below the daily NLSL  – how perfect is that?

Copper – long here if it heaves itself over the 100-day SMA.

You’re into something exotic today? Here’s cotton with an interesting OP/ID configuration.

The reason I’d consider it despite the long ID candle is because of the context. Actually my preference would be a drop below. So if you are a cheeky steel rat you may find an early entry near the upper 100-hour BB, which also happens to be right at the 100-day SMA. How perfect is that? (today’s tag line I guess)

Let’s wrap it up with crude – OP followed by an ID. Crude has been a bit of a mess lately but I’ll take the setup because the doctor ordered it. One of these days it’ll finally pick a direction  In general (considering the LT picture) I would prefer a short entry here. If you recall my recent LT update then you know why 😉

Keep it frosty and don’t get overexposed. Treat it like hor d’oeuvres – take little bites off your favorites and you should be okay. Be disciplined with your stops – and make sure you get a decent entry near the trigger lines. If need be set yourself alerts, there are a ton of pertinent services out there. TOS also has them for free.



Hell’s Bells

You may not be aware of this but the stakes are extremely high right now. Equities are literally sitting on the last bastion of support and unless we see a bounce here things are about to get ugly – really ugly. That’s right – I’m talking hell’s bells ugly!

And yes, there is method to my madness. As I don’t want to post my volume profile chart for the third time in a row let me paint the overall picture across several timeframes:

I hope your browser is resilient as this is going to be a regular chartalanche. If you pulled this post on a mobile phone then my condolences for zapping your bandwidth limit. Let’s start with the E-Mini: In today’s early morning briefing I highlighted the 25-hour SMA and thus far it has been holding up famously – so far so good and that keeps us in the game. On the daily panel we busted a net-line sell level (NLSL) yesterday and are also below the 100-hour SMA. Possible target would be the 1320 range, unless…

… unless of course the 25-week SMA holds up. As it’s already Friday tomorrow (time really with all those red candles) this should get interesting.

Bear in mind that our bearish P&F price objective on the SPX is pretty close to being fulfilled. As I’m typing this we’re trading at around 1385. The implications of a continuation lower here can not be understated. If we don’t hold here (and stick to our P&F PO) then we are triggering a weekly sell signal at the SMA. We’d also be below the daily volume profile hole (see my previous posts) and there’s quite a bit of participation that could lead us lower.

A quick house cleaning item – AAPL is now at our final target. Actually it was yesterday already but it kind of slipped my mind. As it’s now outside the 100-day BB we want to be out. If you missed both entries then please go outside and kick a tree. I’m not ready to be long here yet, but give me a day or two, in particular if we see an attempt to paint a floor.


Gold – at the 25-hour SMA – I want to be short here but will flip it for a long if we bust above 1730.

Crude – inside day setup plus it’s a narrow range 4 day. If you are a noob (or first time visitor) then please consult the cheat sheet for more details on how to trade those. Frankly, it’s so easy – a caveman could do it.

Another inside day on copper – same game. Bear in mind that these levels may change by the time we close today. Use the closing boundaries, not what you see on this chart.

And now for something completely different – stocks symbols! I’m seeing a lot of setups today and thought I’d indulge. GOOG – right at the 100-day SMA. Looks a bit like AAPL two weeks ago. Doesn’t mean it’ll drop into the abyss but right now I’m short with a stop above the SMA. If she pulls back up I’d be long after 667. Better hurry, this one is on the move.

Here’s the CME which is now trigger a short as it breached a NLSL and it should be golden once it drops below the SMA.

BG – right at its daily NLSL. Good chance it’ll hold and I want to be long here with a stop below.

CELG – now touching support. I want to be long with a stop below. Willing to flip if we make it through 71.

ISRG – also touching support. I want to be long until we breach through the NLS and the 25-day SMA. After that it’s a short trade.

Potential last kiss goodbye (LKGB) on LMT – I’m short with a stop above 91.

Pfizer – support seems to be holding and I’m sitting on a tiny long position (it’s a bit gappy for me).

Potash – possible support there. I’m still waiting for another candle tomorrow but we may get a bounce attempt here.

Exxon dropping below the 100-day support line – couldn’t happen to a nicer company, right? 😉

Finally some good ole’ FX! That’s our bread and butter after all. EUR/AUD sitting right at the Maginot Line. I very much like what I’m seeing on the hourly panel. So I’m short with a stop above the 25-hour SMA. Hoping for a breach of the 100-day and continuation lower. Yes, I’ll flip it if we bust above the 25-hour. You guys know the game by now.

Inside day on EUR/CAD – you know what to do.

Last but not least – USD/CAD – again touching resistance. I am short but would be long after par, which is obviously a psychological resistance level. Great setup here – dont’ miss it!

This ought to keep you guys busy for a while 😉

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


It’s Baaack!

If you’re a bit puzzled about today’s E-Mini session then you’re not alone. That was a fine ramp across the board but seeing us fall right back to the ole’ volume hole is a bit disturbing. That’s right – it’s ba-aaack!

I’m starting to feel like Bill Murray as the 1420 level is turning into the price equivalent of ‘I Got You Babe’. Talking about a broken record! Sorry if I’m mixing up movie themes here. As I’m typing this the spoos actually have dropped to 1418, thus we are smack middle in the hole again. We’ve been visiting it since August and quite frankly it’s time we clear it – one way or the other. As of right now the bulls are still ahead but I’m a lot less convinced as I was this morning. To be clear – that ramp should have not been followed by a sell off. VIX buy signal or not – today’s action is concerning.

But the steel rats have much to celebrate. You recall our EUR/USD ST setup which triggered my last kiss goodbye entry yesterday. Time to take at least partial profits as we are approaching possible support.

Copper – nice early morning entry and we are now in our ‘getting the hell out’ range. FYI – I’m not holding any positions medium term as we met the bearish PO on our P&F chart. More on that later this weekend.

Gold – one of our better trades of this year. You probably recall that sugar sweet LKGB entry a few weeks ago. It’s now time to start scaling out as we are approaching the 100-day SMA. FYI – our P&F target is near 1600 – that’s not a typo. But Rome wasn’t built in a day and I do expect a bounce here – hopefully we get a better entry after a correction.

Same on silver of course – time to get out as today’s sell off banked us some mighty coin.

I was able to dig up a few more setups but I’m currently treating lightly as I don’t like to take on too many positions during/after a big swing across the board:
More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

EUR/JPY – we got a possibility of a fail of the NLBL on the daily panel. It’s a cheap short and my guidepost would be the 100-hour SMA. It’s a cheap shot in the dark with a stop above the NLBL. I would definitely flip this one if we breach higher.

AUD/JPY – looking strong and I see little resistance. Those BBs are about to point higher and we now got a cheap re-entry at the 25-hour SMA. I would let that one do the talking. BTW, nice little fake out earlier this morning, if you got shaken out don’t feel too bad. That’s part of the territory and those MMs will get their share.

Obviously the Dollar caught my attention today for two reasons. One – my exchange rate just got a little much needed boost. Two – there seems to be an inverse H&S in the works. Could be interesting and I think we want to be long at a breach of the neckline. Of course it won’t happen so easily – for one the hourly looks shot to hell. And two – there’s usually a little curl below before it takes off. The bus moves fasteset once everyone got off.

Bonds – the ZB is sitting on support on both panels. I would very much enjoy a breach here and the hourly will be my guide for the daily. Especially convenient over night.

Coffee in an interesting position – there’s a NLBL + the 25-hour SMA on the left. And on the daily panel we got an inside day:

Here’s the official range as of now – which gives you two ways to play this one. It’s not just an inside day, it’s also a NR4, the smallest range in four days. If you’re a noob please consult the cheat sheet for the rules.


Bonus Chart:

This is what I tweeted on the 23rd (and posted about on the 21st and 22nd) – another good reason to sign up for my tweeter feed.


    Zero Indicator

    Darth Mole Alerts

  1. poll

    • How many discretionary trades to you place per month?

      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...

  2. NinjaTrader

    search warrant

  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Welcome Back!
    2. Happy Thanksgiving
    3. Great Call Flawed Execution
    4. Time For A Little Hedge
    5. Soylent Green And Orange
    6. Misses Mean Reversion 2015 Runner Ups
    7. The Mad Momo Ratio
    8. Europe Will Never Be The Same Again
    9. E-Mini Session Wrap Up Video
    10. Support Zones