I’m not really hot on any new positions this morning but I did close out a few of yesterday’s short term campaigns. Although I was able to snag two good ones there’s one that played me for a sucker:
GBP/NZD – I dug deep and grabbed a few longs after seeing selling exhausting. It was the right move but the bastard wound stopping me out by a mere two pips before it took of like gangbusters. Just to show you that this happens to everyone – nobody gets a free pass from Ms. Market.
Fortunately I had the foresight to also grab a few longs on the AUD/NZD. Sweet move here as well and I just took profits.
My EUR/USD campaign has come to an end as well. As much as I would love to see this one drop lower for a repeat performance the odds of this transpiring are rather low.
There were some questions regarding that subtle divergence on the Zero Lite (right panel) yesterday and earlier this morning. First up, it’s pretty normal to see a bit of a taper at the end of an extended sell off session. That doesn’t always mean that we’ll see an instant bounce. Perhaps if the signal would have started touching the Zero mark (in blue) a bit in the last hour. In that case I may have been tempted to grab a few lottery long tickets.
Now you may look at the overnight bounce and tell yourself that the Zero called it. I would disagree there – the price action almost 11 hours ago has little to do with what we ensued after the closing bell. Correlation does not equal causation. Thus I believe holding off on getting long last night was the right decision. If you stayed up late and kept watching the price action of course then you may have had opportunities as the spoos started to test a stack of Net-Line Sell Levels.
Alright, I’ll keep parsing around and if I see anything of value will post it here.
It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
I think today’s session should serve as a stark reminder that the very last thing you should ever attempt is to apply even the slightest sliver of logic to market behavior, especially during volatile periods. I’m going to make this very easy for you rats, so listen up and listen carefully now. If in doubt or if you find yourself attempting to make a prediction as to where the tape may swing in response to big news events remind yourself of the following:
Now read the line above again a few times and then write it on a piece of paper and stick it to your wall or resident shark tank if you have one handy. I prefer the latter as it serves as a proper backdrop to that message and for all you pikers I have put together a little theme pic which you can use instead
Case in point are the spoos which first gapped lower screwing anyone left long – then attempted to close the gap until the 100-day SMA (and weekly NLBLs) to then turn on a dime and continue lower. Clearly there is no explaining any of this and neither should we try. The chart above provided us with all we need to know.
So did the Zero I may add which has been pointing down all day since the open. But chances are you weren’t watching that one as you’re a nomadic ZeroEdge reading retail rat and thus can’t afford the monthly subscription for your $2000 E*Trade account.
Soybean meal – I just held my nose and take a spoon full long here with a stop below 332. 1/2R only as the daily context is looking rather bearish so odds have it I’ll be stopped out. But if not it’ll catch a bunch of folks off guard.
Euro – nice upper BB touch and I’m short here 1/2R. I do love this chart but the gap turned into a short squeeze. Why? Because a reversal higher and beyond didn’t make any sense whatsoever, which is exactly why it happened. If that confuses you please re-read the intro above.
The force today is definitely with Forex – and for my intrepid subs I have more setups waiting below the fold:
More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!
That’s it for today – I hope none of you guys were caught off guard and are positioned nicely. Definitely no lack in volatility and odds have it that we’ll see a bit more before things quiet down for Independence Day weekend.
And there we are - operation short squeeze is officially underway. I flipped back to long mode at 2089.25 (after being long since 2076) which conveniently also produced a new NLBL. You can use that as your stop but I’m a bit more conservative as shake outs will happen here.
What we should be focusing on now is that we have successfully interrupted the series of LL/LH today. The 100-hour is the first stepping stone higher and may get retested a few times (hence my lower stop). The 100-day SMA near 2081 so far seems properly defended but it’s early in the process.
The Zero signal on the Lite is still too underwhelming for my taste. We need to see a bit more short covering here leading to strong spikes above the 1.0 range.
Zero subs: Watch our for distinct divergences but if we happen to paint a trend day (e.g. straight up and signals on the ZL > 1.5 mark) then ignore any blue Mole reversal arrows. See you guys a bit later.
The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.