Bounce It

The magic pendulum swung back the other way and Friday’s decision to take partial profits (according to system rules) managed to lock in at least 50% of the profits accumulated on the way down. Of course the question rattling around in your retail rodent brain right now is whether or not this is just a temporary bounce to shake out a few weak hands (i.e. you) or if this thing manages to squeeze higher.

If you want my advice – just bounce it all. You should always always know what your campaign will do at each step of the way – ahead of taking entries. Remember that the game always has and always will revolve around pressing your emotional buttons - and there’s a wide range of keys available – take a look:

2015-03-16_brain

You think of yourself as a rational person? Well, think again – 90% of what we do is steered by habits and emotions. Just look at how much of your brain is actually devoted to emotional interpretations and responses in comparison with rational analysis and the exercise of judgment. So if you are still exposed to the downside all these sections of your brain are most likely feeding you a party mix comprised of disappointment, fear of losing more of your prior paper profits, temptation to double down and sell the rip, doubts about your prior analysis, anger at not taking full profits last Friday, etc.

Mind you this is NOT the time to second guess your system (if you have one) or to react as opposed to simply act. I think this is an essential maxim every trader should be print, frame, and hang on the wall facing you during your trading activities:

ACT – NEVER REACT.

2015-03-16_ES_update

The hourly and daily price panels are looking pretty bullish at this point. However we are at a short term threshold which will determine if this leads higher. Notice how the BBs and SMAs on the hourly are starting to slightly swing higher – if this continues into the close then the bulls take this one home and probably squeeze things higher. So watch the next two hours – the bears need to act now in order to prevent a massive squeeze to the upside. Accordingly I have put my final stop near the 25-day SMA which is probably more than generous.

2015-03-16_spoos_weekly

Weekly – the bulls definitely won the first important battle. That NLSL and the 25-week SMA held up like bosses and unless challenged early this week it will henceforth act as additional support.

2015-03-16_VIX_ratio

Let’s take a look at market internals – the SPX:VIX ratio is looking a bit suspicious as it’s trailing price. This may be nothing but I am sharing additional considerations below the fold.

2015-03-16_zero

The Zero super flat today – no participation. Which leads into two charts that grabbed my attention – please get your secret decoder ring and join me in the lair:


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RainbowPamPortVila

UPDATE on Ivan Krastins – I am happy to report that I just received notice from someone in contact with Ivan. Apparently the old buzzard managed to survive a category 5 cyclone wearing his Chinese wok as a helmet and by chaining himself to a boat anchor. He has no electricity or internet and his computers have been damaged. But he does have phone access and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s calling in futures orders as we speak. Well done old chap – if you need anything please don’t hesitate to ask – we’re here for you. Unfortunately Scott is in Bali right now otherwise I’m sure he’d be on a boat by now. I have an old MBP I could ship him or perhaps someone closer to Ivan could help him out? Getting things over there will be difficult for the next few weeks and any Aussies or Kiwis please steps up – he needs our help.

PUBLIC COURTESY ANNOUNCEMENT: I am heading to San Diego for a day and am scheduled to return to Los Angeles tomorrow early afternoon. I won’t be bringing my lappy as I’ll be on my feet most of the time down there. This means that tomorrow’s post will most likely be after the market closes. Thank you for your understanding – I am doing my best to keep the blog flowing during my time on the beautiful West Coast. By the way the weather here has been fantastic – super sunny with dry heat – just like the Mole likes it :-)

Cheers,

The Eagle Has Landed

My apologies for the late post today – it took me a while to get set up this morning as the storage place with all my equipment is all the way out in Los Feliz. And half way there I realized that we idiots had forgotten the key for the padlock, which added another 30 minutes to the trip. But I’m all set up now with my gorgeous Apple Cinema display and a surprisingly fast Internet connection. As you recall I already shifted my circadian rhythm over the past week and in general it feels like I never left Los Angeles. It’s amazing how quickly the brain re-adjusts to a familiar environment. Before you know it you’re cruising all over L.A., cursing at slow drivers of a certain ethnic group, A/C and stereo cranked up, sending hapless pedestrians diving for the sidewalk. You know – Los Angelino style :-)

LA_March_sunset_1

Here’s a snapshot I took last night here in Hollywood on Beverly right at the tail end of a gorgeous sunset. Today’s going to be hot – somewhere around 89 and it’ll breach the 90 mark tomorrow. I love the dry heat here and couldn’t be happier.

2015-03-12_UVOL_DVOL

Alright, let’s talk markets. As Scott pointed out – accumulation was in the works yesterday as evidenced by the NYSE UVOL/DVOL ratio. Buying pressure was solid and constant all the way into the close.

2015-03-12_zero

The Zero painted a pretty pronounced divergence on the hourly panel yesterday. Today’s session however (and yesterday) was driven by minimal momentum/participation suggesting prop desks and bots were running this.

2015-03-12_SPX_VIX

On the SPX/VIX panel the ratio is leading pure price and I think this could easily squeeze higher.

2015-03-12_spoos_update

So let’s look at the daily E-Mini which bounced at the 100-day SMA and the lower 25-day BB. The latter was actually the one which has been observed in recent history and the two together offered a nice opportunity for the bulls. Had I posted yesterday I would (like Scott) suggested to lighten up your short exposure here.

2015-03-12_LT_spoos_update

Long term we also had the 25-week SMA and a NLSL at 2036.5 – both of which I pointed out on Tuesday.

2015-03-12_NQ_update

The NQ is lagging the spoos which is interesting as it’s been the more bullish index recently. As you can see the weekly NLBL at 4286.25 has held up nicely so far.

2015-03-12_silver_setup

Alright, let’s talk setups – we have beautiful ones on our roster today. Here’s silver which I love short here until 15.565 where I’ll be long 1/2R, adding another 1/2R above 15.66. Frankly I would be happy either way – short or long and I have no directional bias.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs – please step into my Californian holiday lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

That’s it – see you guys tomorrow. FYI – while I’m here on the West Coast for the coming three weeks I will most likely post only once a day. Unless I fall out of bed very early – meaning near 6:00am. And that frankly happens rarely ;-)

Cheers,

Lower Highs And Lower Lows

I’m going to have to be brief tonight as I’m running late and I have a mountain of chores stacked on my desk. So let’s dispense with the formalities and let me try to get you up to speed on what’s going on and where we may be heading. More weakness in equities and right now the hourly panels are our best guides:

2015-03-04_spoos_update

Forget about all the lines and indicators – that’s beside the point right now. What really matters here is PRICE and the spoos are painting lower highs and lower lows. As long as we don’t breach ES 2100 we are heading lower.

2015-03-04_UVOL_DVOL

Selling pressure is definitely for real – observe the rather interesting UVOL/DVOL ratio spikes mid session. There’s a bit of panic selling right there – or perhaps it’s more distribution. Someone thought they may have had more time?

2015-03-04_zero

The Zero signal is for real – compare the signal range today with what we had to put up with over the past week or two. And the big spikes are to the downside – definitely noted.

2015-03-04_NQ_update

As you know I prefer the context on the NQ right now – I think NQ 4452.5 is the first and 4458 is the second line of defense for the bears. Also note that we sliced through the daily NLSL at 4427 but thus far it’s holding. If we close below it today or tomorrow we are going to 4350ish.

2015-03-04_AUDCAD_update

AUD/CAD update – I got pretty lucky there as I was about to grab a long position on a drop to 0.89. Fortunately the tape started to run away from me and I pulled it just in time. Better to be lucky than good – at least every once in a while ;-)

I probably should have looked at the daily panel this morning – that’s a stack of NLBLs right there and the odds for a breach were perhaps a bit low.

2015-03-04_gold_update

Gold update – nice entry there this morning and I’ve moved my stop to the break-even point. I’m holding this as it may continue lower.

2015-03-04_NG_update

My favorite chart today – NG – I also snug in there and for once it actually behaved and didn’t throw me out of the saddle. So far so good. I love the daily and weekly context here – unfortunately I’m less enthused about all those daily NLBLs above but I’ll deal with that if/when we get there.

2015-03-04_crude_update

Crude - got stopped out and then managed to jump back in on the way up. Only caught 1/4R however but I’ll take it and will built my position if it decided to finally abandon this range.

That’s all I got for today – I hope you guys grabbed one or two of this morning’s entries. If nothing else I would enjoy a bit more participation in the comment section. Alright, dinner’s waiting and Mrs. Evil is getting impatient – I have been advised to hurry the heck up. See you guys tomorrow!

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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