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Channels Galore

by The MoleFebruary 5, 2009

UPDATE 1:55pm EST: So far the ES 844 R4 pivot has held but I’m still a bit suspicious about a possible snap to the upside. The Yen is actually pushing up and equities have been burning a lot of MACD/stochastics without giving up any points. Not good – I’m really torn here between not wanting to re-hedge at the top and not wanting to take it up the rat’s rectum towards the end of the day. I need to see some movement now – the longer we hang out up here the weaker the short term bearish case.

Since channels have worked well for us lately let’s watch this one.

UPDATE 2:08pm EST: FYI – I just rehedged myself when we breached this channel. Maybe it’s a mistake and I locked in profits here but I don’t enjoy seeing the Yen pushing up and trend indicators burning down without equities giving up any points. Smelled like a consolidation before a big push to the upside.

UPDATE 2:22pm EST: Take a look at this little nugget:

You know this chart by now – and it’s not looking good for the short term bearish case.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I think its going up. Flags going on .

  • T. Waffle

    Can not believe today's move.

  • molecool

    Believe it!

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    Mole,

    Look at the option activity for AAPL, GS, SPY…..what is that saying….?

    Im neutral man.

  • molecool

    Neutral as well now.

  • poopsquad

    certainly feels bullish. but i think any announcement (this mark-to-market rumor) will ultimately be a sale. either they aren't doing it, or people are buying rumor to sell the fact. Also, CMBX continues to gap out. Getting close to the Nov wides. This part doesnt fit well with the financial rally…….we cant really chop around 850 forever can we ? we will get answers soon i believe…

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    What happened to SlopeOfHope? I can't get in…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mf

    alot of selling on strength for SPY today

  • Vardoger

    EUR/JPY getting close to falling back into the triangle. I suspect a bounce is coming and should be accompanied by a bounce in the markets. I bought back some SRS calls and still holding half my position in IWM MAR puts… Looking to add another quarter position if we bounce. This is a really shitty tape to trade with that said. I am playing because I am sticking to my strategy but I am ready to go flat at any moment. Good luck

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I think i'm going back to bed.I can't bear to watch the last 2 hours

  • pgrychah

    MA short alert.

  • DZZ

    “When mark to market is suspended who in their right mind would buy stocks? What person would purchase shares in a company when they know that the books are completely fabricated? More importantly, what fools think that banks are now currently marking to market?” said DrMalaka
    Has transparency been different in the past?

  • JAcko

    Rydex cash flow ration pointing to a largely over-bought market (believe it or not):

    http://i41.tinypic.com/53o1ed.jpg

  • poopsquad

    all correct. its just an excuse to jam the market higher. but i dont know, could it take the market 3 weeks instead of 3 hours to come to that conclusion…..definitely

  • Kim

    molecool

    “Smelled like a consolidation before a big push to the upside.”

    Thanks for the heads up!

    Remember mole:

    “Do what you want cause a Pirate is free.You are a Pirate.
    Yarr har fiddle dede. Being a Pirate is alright with me!”

  • molecool

    You crack me up – LOL :-)

  • El gAto

    The big question to ask right now ” are the buyers higher”?? (i.e what's the momentum crowd doing)………The action in biotech suggests they are chasing. These are the stocks that usually have not earnings and are based on “stories”…….This is bullish IMO

  • alphahorn

    Tick, tick, tick. The bomb is ticking, will it explode or will the bears make a stand? Scroll down and look at the Stochastic

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • DZZ

    I was about to ask “Is anyone trading the Zero signals today?”
    Mole you are so great with your chart timing. It's the Yen stupid….. FXY not tracking.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    My bed is shaking.We must be making new highs .

  • alphahorn

    S&P @ 850, 3 points shy of the top of the triangle

  • aum_namoh_shivay

    market is waiting for tim knoight to be ultrabullish before it turns down …imo

  • aum_namoh_shivay

    i wonder who is buying

  • http://patternspy.blogspot.com Austin
  • molecool

    OR you got a really bad roach problem.

  • molecool

    Yo momma!

  • alphahorn

    most shorts

  • poopsquad

    Dodd refuting the mark-to-market rumors now. Should let alot of air out of the ballon. How it responds after that will be interesting. CMBX a mess though and Treas starting to go bid.

  • alphahorn

    these guys are so inept

  • molecool

    Are you kidding? They know exactly what they are doing. You're not getting it.

  • http://yqtrader.blogspot.com/ YQ168

    A possible diamond forming? watch for fake break out though.

    http://yqtrader.blogspot.com/

  • alphahorn

    $CPC below .8 again. We are so due for a major downside correction.

  • Vardoger

    Get your ass back into the channel from this morning!

  • molecool

    Mmwwuuhaaahaahaaaahaaaaaa!!!!

  • b_rad

    huh??

  • pgrychah

    Second update. MA is ready to roll over.

  • beer_to_whiz

    what is $CPC. I am short the SPY and QQQQ with March Puts BTW

  • Keirsten

    I have thrown out my charts and now using the VOMINIX as my guide.

  • poopsquad

    wow. i have to smile at this. although Asshat , or as I sometimes call him Dicknuts Dodd has cost me today too. this should be one of the more interesting last hours in a while.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    New Post

  • poopsquad

    more fun. Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy
    Geithner will unveil a bank rescue plan in a speech Feb. 9, a
    Treasury official said.

  • katzo7

    LOL.

    Are you short POT?

  • molecool

    NEW KARMA KLEANER

  • Vardoger

    Damn right they know exactly what they are doing. Manipulating this mother, they are stupid though. They should let us test the bottom and then play their games. Its the best way to get a sustainable rally that could bring enough vanilla back into this market to capitulate to the new lows we all expect eventually. We'll see, the number in the morning could just do it… they are playing us

  • b_rad

    You say R4, may I ask the rationale for using Camarilla instead of original style Pivots?

  • BalaB

    thx Big House.
    I must remember these numbers are posted during the day.

  • DZZ

    thanks

  • El gAto

    A large seller is using this added liquidity to get out of their position in CERN. Stop over yesterdays high……..I would look to cover some before the numbers on Tues. A close under 33 would confirm the downward momentum. 20 DMA has pushed thorugh 50 DMA.

  • alphahorn

    call / put ratio. overweighted toward calls

  • standard_and_poor

    Looks like impulsive wave down on 1 min., kinda hard to squint. LET'S SEE.

  • standard_and_poor

    Went down with gaps to 840 on 1 min., could be good sign. I am just grasping for straws?

  • Lordted

    Anyone here use Gartly Patterns – we just had one on S&P and the DOW. Could be short term top up here

  • fuzzygreysocks

    What alphahorn said.
    http://tinyurl.com/6vw6ef

    It tends to get pretty low at optimistic peaks and quite high in the depths of despair.

  • wex

    what do you mean by ” Equities burning a lot ofMACD Stochastics and not giving up any points” & later”trend indicators burning down without equities giving up points” apologies if this is a neophyte's question

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I think its going up. Flags going on .

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Can not believe today's move.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Believe it!

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    Mole,

    Look at the option activity for AAPL, GS, SPY…..what is that saying….?

    Im neutral man.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Neutral as well now.

  • poopsquad

    certainly feels bullish. but i think any announcement (this mark-to-market rumor) will ultimately be a sale. either they aren't doing it, or people are buying rumor to sell the fact. Also, CMBX continues to gap out. Getting close to the Nov wides. This part doesnt fit well with the financial rally…….we cant really chop around 850 forever can we ? we will get answers soon i believe…

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    What happened to SlopeOfHope? I can't get in…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mf

    alot of selling on strength for SPY today

  • Vardoger

    EUR/JPY getting close to falling back into the triangle. I suspect a bounce is coming and should be accompanied by a bounce in the markets. I bought back some SRS calls and still holding half my position in IWM MAR puts… Looking to add another quarter position if we bounce. This is a really shitty tape to trade with that said. I am playing because I am sticking to my strategy but I am ready to go flat at any moment. Good luck

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I think i'm going back to bed.I can't bear to watch the last 2 hours

  • RYCH

    MA short alert.

  • DZZ

    “When mark to market is suspended who in their right mind would buy stocks? What person would purchase shares in a company when they know that the books are completely fabricated? More importantly, what fools think that banks are now currently marking to market?” said DrMalaka
    Has transparency been different in the past?

  • JAcko

    Rydex cash flow ration pointing to a largely over-bought market (believe it or not):

    http://i41.tinypic.com/53o1ed.jpg

  • poopsquad

    all correct. its just an excuse to jam the market higher. but i dont know, could it take the market 3 weeks instead of 3 hours to come to that conclusion…..definitely

  • Kim2523

    molecool

    “Smelled like a consolidation before a big push to the upside.”

    Thanks for the heads up!

    Remember mole:

    “Do what you want cause a Pirate is free.You are a Pirate.
    Yarr har fiddle dede. Being a Pirate is alright with me!”

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You crack me up – LOL :-)

  • El gAto

    The big question to ask right now ” are the buyers higher”?? (i.e what's the momentum crowd doing)………The action in biotech suggests they are chasing. These are the stocks that usually have no earnings and are based on “stories”…….This is bullish IMO

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Tick, tick, tick. The bomb is ticking, will it explode or will the bears make a stand? Scroll down and look at the Stochastic

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • DZZ

    I was about to ask “Is anyone trading the Zero signals today?”
    Mole you are so great with your chart timing. It's the Yen stupid….. FXY not tracking.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    My bed is shaking.We must be making new highs .

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    S&P @ 850, 3 points shy of the top of the triangle

  • aum_namoh_shivay

    market is waiting for tim knoight to be ultrabullish before it turns down …imo

  • aum_namoh_shivay

    i wonder who is buying

  • http://patternspy.blogspot.com Austin
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    OR you got a really bad roach problem.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yo momma!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    most shorts

  • katzo7

    Hell of a gap fill. Problem is there wasn't a gap.
    Look at the candles now. Down.

    Alphahorn, you may have hit it, nice.

  • poopsquad

    Dodd refuting the mark-to-market rumors now. Should let alot of air out of the ballon. How it responds after that will be interesting. CMBX a mess though and Treas starting to go bid.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    these guys are so inept

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Are you kidding? They know exactly what they are doing. You're not getting it. Fucking asshat Dodd has cost me some profits today.

  • http://yqtrader.blogspot.com/ YQ168

    A possible diamond forming? watch for fake break out though.

    http://yqtrader.blogspot.com/

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    $CPC below .8 again. We are so due for a major downside correction.

  • Vardoger

    Get your ass back into the channel from this morning!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Mmwwuuhaaahaahaaaahaaaaaa!!!!

  • Woolly Llama

    huh??

  • RYCH

    Second update. MA is ready to roll over.

  • lester

    what is $CPC. I am short the SPY and QQQQ with March Puts BTW

  • Keirsten

    I have thrown out my charts and now using the VOMINIX as my guide.

  • poopsquad

    wow. i have to smile at this. although Asshat , or as I sometimes call him Dicknuts Dodd has cost me today too. this should be one of the more interesting last hours in a while.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    New Post

  • poopsquad

    more fun. Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy
    Geithner will unveil a bank rescue plan in a speech Feb. 9, a
    Treasury official said.

  • katzo7

    LOL.

    Are you short POT?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    NEW KARMA KLEANER

  • Vardoger

    Damn right they know exactly what they are doing. Manipulating this mother, they are stupid though. They should let us test the bottom and then play their games. Its the best way to get a sustainable rally that could bring enough vanilla back into this market to capitulate to the new lows we all expect eventually. We'll see, the number in the morning could just do it… they are playing us

  • Vardoger

    Next time I go back home to CT I'll be sure to make my way up to Dodd Stadium and take a huge dump on his statue for you and me poopsquad, no worries.

  • Woolly Llama

    You say R4, may I ask the rationale for using Camarilla instead of original style Pivots?

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    thx Big House.
    I must remember these numbers are posted during the day.

  • DZZ

    thanks

  • El gAto

    A large seller is using this added liquidity to get out of their position in CERN. Stop over yesterdays high……..I would look to cover some before the numbers on Tues. A close under 33 would confirm the downward momentum. 20 DMA has pushed thorugh 50 DMA.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    call / put ratio. overweighted toward calls

  • standard_and_poor

    Looks like impulsive wave down on 1 min., kinda hard to squint. LET'S SEE.

  • standard_and_poor

    Went down with gaps to 840 on 1 min., could be good sign. I am just grasping for straws?

  • Lordted

    Anyone here use Gartly Patterns – we just had one on S&P and the DOW. Could be short term top up here

  • fuzzygreysocks

    What alphahorn said.
    http://tinyurl.com/6vw6ef

    It tends to get pretty low at optimistic market peaks and quite high in the depths of market despair.

  • wex

    what do you mean by ” Equities burning a lot ofMACD Stochastics and not giving up any points” & later”trend indicators burning down without equities giving up points” apologies if this is a neophyte's question