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Charts To Watch Today
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Charts To Watch Today

by The MoleAugust 25, 2017

Jackson Hole is upon us and clearly none of us is going to be very active today, given that we’ll be treated not just to one but two central banker speeches during the session. Thus expect obligatory whipsaw across the board while market participants are trying to decipher various mutually contradictory statements by first Mrs. Yellen at 10:00am followed by Mr. Draghi at 3:00pm EDT.  While I’m not going to do much trading today I can however still point you to the charts you ought to be watching:

2017-08-25_DX

The first one is a no-brainer – the U.S. Dollar (here shown are the futures the USDX ticks slightly different). Clearly it’s attempting to paint a medium term floor here and daily panel has been coiling up over the past week in anticipation of the ‘big day’. A drop through 92.7 leads to fiat currency hell and a pop above 94 will put the squeeze on any remaining Dollar bears.

2017-08-25_spoos

Equities of course are well worth watching here as they are closely tied to what comes out of the Federal Reserve. The E-Mini futures have painted a classic series of lower highs and lower lows over the past two weeks with the major low touching my 100-day SMA. Seriously, it couldn’t possibly get any more textbook and you don’t need to be a world class analyst to figure out that a drop through the 100-day here would probably trigger a sell-off while anything else will most likely lead us back higher.

2017-08-25_VIX_buy_signals

My charting x-ray vision must be getting rusty as the 2nd VIX Buy Signal earlier this week had completely evaded my attention. Tisk tisk… now this is very important so please pay attention. A double VIX Buy hasn’t happened for a long long time – and I track those things pretty religiously. What is supposed to happen of course is that we continue upward in the coming week or two. But if we DO NOT and if the E-Mini somehow breaches through its 100-day SMA then it would represent a major failure of a double buy signal, and most likely hell will break loose. And the timing for that could not be any better of course:

SPX.XO_weekly_change_stats

It just so happens that we are heading straight into trading week #36, which historically happens to be (drum rolls) the most bearish week of the year! That one is followed by an up week, which then again is followed by two consecutive down weeks, the second of which again statistically is the second most bearish week of the year. Ergo, if Yellen as much as coughs the wrong way strap on your helmets as we may be embarking on a rough ride.
2017-08-25_crude

Crude is coiled to the max on the weekly (right) panel whereas the daily has produced what a series of lower highs and lower lows. Looks bearish but then again, a breach through of that weekly NLBL at 50.41 could unleash a short squeeze out of Hades. And of course a further weakening Dollar may just provide the fuel needed. On the inverse a strengthening greenback could tip crude over the edge and lead us quite a bit lower here.

2017-08-25_gold

Finally gold which is currently parked at the falling diagonal I painted on the weekly panel. Clearly the key inflection point for more upside is the 1300 mark and if that gives it’ll unleash a blood hungry army of Viking berserkers on anyone still short the shiny metal. I for one hope this won’t happen today as I would rather take my chances near 1260 during a last kiss goodbye shake out. But frankly I have my doubts we’ll get that opportunity as gold looks like it’s ready to rock & roll and that soon.

Words To The Wise

Don’t do anything stupid today. If you must participate then use small position sizing. See you all Monday morning bright eyed and bushy tailed.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • OJuice

    Great post. Thanks Mole.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Gold just rocked higher to 1302 but has since reversed back lower.

  • Ronebadger

    “if Yellen as much as coughs the wrong way, strap on your helmets” …. cracked me up

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    hehe

  • BobbyLow

    Yep and it went all the way back down to 1281 and now floundering. It looks like the
    old whipsaw fuckerooskie play. :) Glad to be in cash while the CB’s entertain themselves in JH.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Miners essentially stuck in this range for a year now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    It’s Friday, VIX below ema40.
    time for a beer and some rest.

    I for one, welcome our Vixen Viking overlords.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1a809fa27314b961d1b0a34032888fef6c7a744e33254683902c84cbcd60e776.png
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..gold may be flat, but with the dollar threatening lower,
    it wouldn’t take much to keep the ratio trending!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p67874146445
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Damn, here we go

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So far it’s a big nothing-burger…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Music for the next Zero video.
    😉
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fo8vUE2FAck

    I have a coworker, who is slightly hard of hearing. So his phone is LOUD.
    Grrrrrr.

  • StockTalker

    Worse than watching paint dry

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Currently waiting for more excitement on The Weather Channel.

  • OJuice

    Price alerts on a mobile app are a lifesaver for days like these.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Lol, looks like we may get some good action. Taking some profit @ 5800, if that fails we get out correction. Think we do a back test shortly.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • OJuice

    I’m surprised you are still here… I’m only here because I’m at work and I keep this tab open.

  • ridingwaves

    damn, a whole week in PV and not a thing happened….except: tequila inventory is now slightly lower in Mexico

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Draghi came out and try to tell everybody he had an erection after speaking to his favourite female hobbit, ms Yellen, that selloff was a visible public disappointment about what he produced.

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Oh, the erection is slowly coming on.

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    old men …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    for a second, I thought you said PIV

  • ridingwaves

    so your also eating into the inventory I see…gold gerbs on Anejo….that could be a hit…

    AVEO is jumpy today….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I love PV – where are you staying there? Last time I went I stayed in a super nice place in Conchas Chinas. Whatever you do though – don’t rent one of those ATV. I was dumb enough to do it and the stupid cobble stone streets in the center killed my back as there are potholes everywhere.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..peeking at the dollar Sunday night. red 0.33%, gap closing.

    the last kiss goodbye, happened already IMHO.
    The US greenback may be taking a swim this week.

    Prayers to the Southern US trading brothers, keep your powder dry, it’s going to remain wet.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5075425a4456ac8a60d522b993fd108cfffb861efcfa064e6c67d6d18a97e0d5.png

    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I noticed one little detail about the JacksonHole meeting.
    😉
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6a7ead833887cbcd51959fd0dc44463a3a09b62ff9c1d5ba9c7e917dacf393fe.png

    {maybe this will go viral.}

  • Grant

    On the break of Friday’s high (OP bar) will be a great point to go long in ES into the fall… October at least.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/76c0dfc588e6116aafabd1da713fa0a97dfafbe8a34a7ebc5ae276ce960d26a6.png