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Christmas Momo Update
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Christmas Momo Update

by The MoleDecember 20, 2017

Winter solstice must be near as all the trolls seem to be coming out of the woodwork attempting to make themselves at home and stir up trouble. Which I of course greatly enjoy squashing with my Thor size ban hammer I keep around just for such occasions. But quite frankly we all have much more important things to attend to than to waste time on posers and wave wankers. For ’tis the season of giving and Cool Santa dropped by early this year to deliver a sled full of charting goodies. Let’s get to it:

 

I’m kicking things off with one of my oldest momo charts: the SPX weekly stochastic. This is probably the only occasion I ever bother to look at a stochastic indicator and the reason should be obvious: it works extremely well on a medium term basis (measured in weeks).

The breaches below the 90% mark (it’s a oscillator) preceded every single major correction over the past few years although has little predictive value regarding the veracity of the ensuing downside. The last one in recent history has been during summer and after a purely obligatory dip toward SPX 2425 equities have embarked on a ramp that put even the early 2016 ramp to shame.

What’s especially worth noting is what happened in November when the stochastic first dropped through its moving average and then continued to drop toward the 90% mark – which it then touched and instantly reversed. Clever and what happened here pretty much sums up nicely this entire post: We are in a generational bull market and if you are a bear you are officially on the extinct species list.

Of course unlike some of the usual suspects in the financial blogosphere we here at Evil Speculator would never dismiss the potential of an ensuing bear market. Which is why we don’t point at one single chart and then proceed to pawn our wedding ring to bulk up on puts. Instead we accumulate as much evidence as possible and then arrive at a final assessment.

Next on the wrapping list was a long term view on how often the VIX has traded below the 11 mark for extended periods of time. I think the only comparable period would be the 2004 to 2008 credit bubble, although it must be pointed out that we seem to be excavating new ground here. The VIX continues to gyrate in a 6 handle range between 9 and 15 and it’s been going on for the better part of this year. Which quite frankly speaking is unprecedented and I don’t use this classification lightly.

Another ‘exceptional’ chart for me is the ROC which I frankly rarely use unless I see a clear threshold. And that seems to be the -50 mark which thus far has preceded a good number of downside corrections in equities (shown via the SPX in blue). Except that it completely failed in November and as you will see below this is not the only indicator that produced a false (bearish) positive during that time.

Alright, I hope you’re sufficiently caffeinated and warmed up as we’re just getting started:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    Thanks for the momo update Mole….Merry Xmas to you and the wife….enjoy your break?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Absolutely will enjoy my break from the routine. But unfortunately I’m up to my ears on dev and biz related projects that will leave little time for being lazy.

  • ridingwaves

    a great dinner with the significant other is a good break…day trip to some nice hike along the beach is a good break…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    dude, if he really pulled a sciatica, give it a rest. two weeks.
    GG’s Orders.
    http://www.supercutekawaii.com/wp-content/uploads/hosp2.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    GG, you have to eat and actually walking is the best thing for the back….
    you desert gerbils need to get out more

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Turned out to be a pinched iliac sacrum – whatever that is. Hurts like hell and I’ve had it off and on since I was in my early twens. Usually know how to manage it but last Sunday I stretched the wrong way and made it worse.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes, moving is good and stretching, which I enjoy doing anyway.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What’s worse though: no lap dances for a month!!!

  • ridingwaves

    that brings up a legitimate question, do they have places like that in Spain?
    years from now old men will be telling stories to young men about how back in the day they could get a $5 lap dance….those were the days I tell ya…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    If I knew the answer to this question Mrs. Evil would kill me.

  • ridingwaves

    the PTB mission is nearly complete
    UPDATED Existing-home sales roar to their highest since pre-bubble 2006

  • BobbyLow

    Yep, what I don’t understand is if the economy is so great why do we need this massive corporate tax break?

    I’m also seeing major car dealers offering a new cars to anyone with a pay check. This is similar to the kind of stuff that was going on pre-financial crisis.

  • ridingwaves

    well, we do live in a corpocracy BL…
    Risk is about as mispriced as then also…..it will not end well but carry trades can last a long time….Merry Christmas to you and your family….

  • Julie

    F Maintaining a small short position 12.78 stop on a closing basis. GE testing mid November selling climax. I have a very small long probe GE. I had a stop GE but removed stop. I had an idea that the mid November low would be retested which is presently occurring

    MOLE Rest and heal up on your break. Thanks for everything Chief …. Merry Christmas
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Merry Christmas to you and yours as well RW. 🙂

  • Julie

    Hi BL RW is correct Give every advantage to corporations at the expense of the middle class. You nailed the auto manufactures on the head … Subprime loans on autos …. Implosion
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    The wealthiest 25 individuals in the U.S., including Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, CEO Jeff Bezos and Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, own $1 trillion in combined assets. These 25 — a group equivalent to the active roster of a major league baseball team — hold more wealth than the bottom 56% of the U.S. population.

  • Julie

    BL Mark and Everyone There is a volatility index for GOLD ($GVX) courtesy of Erin Heim of Decision Point
    JULIE

  • Julie

    RW Wow Several years ago I read that 200 families in the U.S. have 80% of the wealth in the U.S.. Definitely corroborating your statement
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    you would think they could all give a little bit
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SQGJmgnEI8

  • BobbyLow

    Lets not forget the Second Most Wealthy Family in the US, the Koch family at around 80 Billion Dollars. The Koch Brothers had a $889 Million Dollar Budget earmarked for the 2016 Election. It looks like they got their money’s worth.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/27/us/politics/kochs-plan-to-spend-900-million-on-2016-campaign.html

  • Mark Shinnick

    Got it.

  • ridingwaves

    those crotch brothers need to suck down some Piney Elders and relax instead of trying to change everything into their favor…..

  • Julie

    RW The richest man in MT name Dennis Washington mega billions is very philanthropic. The guy owns steel mills ; railroads ; mining companies. Has a foundation that donates to the underprivileged. What I have noticed is that the super rich that have foundations for the benefit of arts ; universities ; performing arts etc. How does that benefit the poor and underprivileged ?
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Thanks GG ….. GG Merry Christmas to You and Your Family !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    No joke rotation into resources still in evidence.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Utterly phenomenal..these guys gave great special hope to the late 70’s.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Merry Christmas Mark
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    feeds back into the machine, strengthens the student loan complex…

    the needy and poor, veterans and seniors would seem to be worthy cause….but not reality in corpocracy world…

  • Julie
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Copper had a major shakeout early this month.
    Like the Terminator, it is back.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&st=2010-09-01&en=(today)&id=p73532626852

  • Julie
  • ridingwaves

    sweet chart GG, check out the GORO chart. Its beautiful on hourly, daily is forming up nicely, 50-100sma about to jump above the 200…if gold bullish move does happen, this will move up nicely. Sorry, I can’t post chart right now…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Ooooo, pretty. Consider that one a close up of mine.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Not really; they are very unhappy that so many within America have been effectively disenfranchised from the American Dream; that America itself is in danger of social collapse.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you probably know I’m not a fan of individuals.
    but wow, it’s a potential runner.
    -my 2 grams

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c73c5f879b4827302866c29b803bf83c71dd6e2f9eee976946ba1442f49a60ee.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    I don’t see the selfish motivation; only smart positioning any of us ideally would do in the roiling dangerous environment they don’t care to see continue against America’s future.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bankruptcy law needs to change permitting the massive relief that generation must have to survive…and not revolt.

  • ridingwaves

    its coiling up, 60 min has moved thru some resistance. it could find 4.90 first 4.60 is resistance…but it will be locked in with gold as it’s more a gold miner than silver…

  • Mary

    Looks like bitcoin shit the bed again …. 2 days in a row.

    The big question: Is it just a pullback or is this the top?

  • Julie

    GDX Up into the lower Ichi Cloud boundary ; 89 ema and upper downtrend lines. Overbought Want a pullback to approx. 21.84 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c05e5c07920c5e8b9796bb143054304d9446bbdad9f729b6a9d81652127c36c8.png

  • Julie

    Merry Christmas Mary
    JULIE

  • Mary

    Merry Christmas to you too, Julie.

  • Julie

    Mary I think Bitcoin dumped a 1,000 in one hour yesterday. Not for this girl !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    yeah, the govt. and wall street already swooped in, created a housing boom and bust, then changed laws to sell bulk assets grabbed (houses, condos, apartments etc to PE, foreign PE and the same bankers whom created the bust, yet we still bailed them out…..Jubilee is needed, it would be great for the church…they would see a lot of new folks happy in the aisles 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    channels? we don’t need no stinking channels!

    look at that volume spike on the 13th. whoa.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Looks like a very nice inflection even a bit lower, near here beyond 4.22

  • BobbyLow

    Ya right. I just heard that sneaky fuck Ryan talk about the possibility of cutting entitlements like medicare and SS down the road to help cure deficit problems. This has been the plan all along. The well off hard right loves this and the poor hard right are too dumb to realize how badly they’re being fucked. Smart positioning is one thing but being a pig is another.

  • Julie

    GG 21 was strong support too
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    And the real estate pass through interest provision in this bill is really going to benefit the Trump family and many other large Real Estate holders as in another self dealing screw job for the average tax payer. How fucking stupid do these people think we are?

  • ridingwaves

    still needs bullish metal move to propel it anywhere…

    check out NETE todays action, almost jumped in and would have made a sweet scalp but trigger shy…huge bid-ask spreads on 2.5M float…

    more BTC announcements leading to super charged moves…it looks like this sector could be in play for scalping on news….

  • BobbyLow

    LOL Me neither!

  • ridingwaves

    This is what they think of us, were Forrest getting on the bus
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkLHBXPYWuI

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Try not to personalize what is just the same age-old philosophical difference in how phrases like “promote for the general welfare” have been interpreted. Its that essential difference that has invited the progressing intrusion of politicos into everyone’s life, and to everyone’s collective harm.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yes. the ratio will need to cross-over to the bullish side.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p20786414617

  • BobbyLow

    How is this not personal? I began paying into SS with my first part time job in 1959. I paid into SS and Medicare for a very, very long time. I don’t want to pay one penny more for my Medicare or receive one penny less in my SS check so that the Koch Brothers or any other millionare and or corporation can pay less in taxes.

    It is personal.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. LOL

  • Julie

    INTC Strong bounce corroborated by volume off the daily 55 ema. I was looking for a shorter high to short on declining volume but no cigar. The tip off was the choppy pullback (corrective) to the 55 ema CAT was also looking for a shorter high to short but continues along it’s merry way above it’s daily 5 ema. Someday … There will be a shorter high INTC a possible double top on a failed breakout of 47…. Will monitor JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6dd9cb936ef009210f023769d9072fa6578dd4cf945e8ece93166fe4026da254.png

  • ridingwaves

    not speaking for MS, I agree with you as I have paid long and hard also and haven’t collected a dime but these trust funds have been depleted by both parties of the snake…thus the need for the serfs to cut the head off the snake to walk without fear in tall grass….

  • Mary

    Forrest was the smartest person in that movie. The best part was when he beat the crap outta that stinkin’ hippie.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s going to be very difficult, if not impossible to find a high target on the daily.

    try a weekly.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INTC&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48247431747

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INTC&p=W&st=2006-12-04&id=p30411147905
    IMHO, it’s hard to make money on a short when the RSI is 70+

    -GG

  • Julie

    GG INTC Monthly I had a target 47….. Weekly the same
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Monthly?…rumor is those are too slow, even for BL.
    😉

  • Julie

    GG It was trend lines on both monthly and weekly. IMO not much left INTC. CAT A horse of a different color. CAT someday there will be a pullback to it’s 55 ema and a bounce to a lower high . The first sign of trouble will be a break below it’s 5 and 8 ema’s Will not short until a lower high . GG Thanks for your charts as they corroborate mine.
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    This is where philosophy meets the cold road of predicable betrayal. These creeps all specialize in fear and its resulting psych effects after the giving of trust never deserved in the first place. Its personal power that’s been both negligently, and intentionally, viciously dispersed and scattered. Trade smart and preserve and never trust at all costs to anyone in government protection of those freedoms from enemies foreign and domestic as our founding father’s advised each of us. The Government swamp is always known through all history to be the enemy and must constantly be kept under everyone’s thumb….never trusted. Everyone’s personal mistake is trusting it in the first place. Divided or made fearful by these creeps, we fall.

  • Mark Shinnick

    No such fund ever existed in the first place; its always been but a mere accounting entry in the government’s general ledger. The concept of “fund” has always been one of the snakes typical lies.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…more critical mass of collective agreement .

  • Mary

    It works like a ponzi scheme … only it is mandatory.

    None of us have any money in these ‘accounts’. It all gets taken from the current workers and distributed to the current retirees.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I had a really cool day today, figured out a few things which will push things to the next level next year. Frankly I wish I could share more but a lot of it is in the testing/dev stage. But suffice to say that 2018 is going to kick ass.

  • Mary

    any hints?

  • Julie

    Thanks Mole ….. You and everyone here are great. Best move I have ever made.
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I agree…

  • BobbyLow

    I can’t argue this because I too believe it’s just an accounting entry. That’s the way it’s always been. It’s based on the faith in the US Government to be there and do what it said it is going to do. No matter whose in power once this faith is gone, perhaps we go into anarchy and it’s over.

    BTW, it looks like the so-called “swamp” has not been drained at all and it has now become a toxic waste dump instead.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    natty kicked in the face again, but oil looking for $65.
    go go Oil.

    [XLE]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p90822419947

  • ridingwaves

    all the upgrades of the energy sector are adding confirmation….70 is not out of question

  • supervilin

    Can’t wait to see whats cookin Mole

  • Julie

    INTC an intraday reversal . 47.20 is support
    JULIE

  • Julie

    CAT A pullback first week of December to it’s Ichi Cloud baseline (21) The advance above it’s daily 5 ema i.e. creeper trend. Today’s bounce off the blue dotted upper trend line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1b87c7348f12f5adc34956ee4e5c65cb5937b41edf94c90c7e22ffa3ad271359.png

  • ridingwaves

    I was thinking it was him going back in and carrying out his brothers…
    Forrest was smart, no divide, no prejudice, great listener, a doer, focused, a dreamer…We should all aspire to be Forrest..I wish for the city mowing job daily but with pay…

  • Julie

    GE Holding the mid November selling climax low on a retest on less volume JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e18dcf329274a13020642e37bb0eb6f2d53cc43af25f91deb134db4fef5333cc.png

  • Mary

    You are correct. That scene was the highlight of many great scenes.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    It’s Dead Jim
    nothing like dead money.
    $16.81 at best.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GE&p=W&st=2009-11-02&en=(today)&id=p84285000475

  • Julie

    16.81 very possible GG If so a shakeout to rid the weak hands. Have a great rest of day GG Going ice skating
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    Fannie and Freddie should be shut down..Housing prices have been fixed, they are in receivership but now want to use utility bills to help put more people into homes, homes they cannot afford and will end in another greek real estate tragedy….Debtpushers…no presents for you….Signed Santa

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fannie-freddie-inch-closer-to-dumping-fico-for-alternate-credit-scores-on-mortgage-approvals-2017-12-20
    FICO scores rely mostly on payment histories on mortgages and credit card bills. Alternatives, like one developed by VantageScore, assess borrowers’ ability to repay based on a wider range of data, like utility bills. VantageScore claims it can score tens of millions more Americans that older model can’t capture.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Cheers!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • kim
  • Mark Shinnick

    Bitterness would be just another distraction. Not even this video gets to the core; it diverges along an effect misleading away from the cause. The lie of all this distraction is the cancer covering up the primary disease. Targeting “the rich” is another simpleton distraction away from the growth of government that draws everyone’s productive life blood. The battle is the size and influence and massive consequential costs of government. Asking “politicians to do anything” is exactly the nature of the problem. We elect them to do what we must all consistently order in solidarity knowing that government is always the problem, which new order for reduction must be clear and unambiguous and made under threat of treason. It’s the creeping corruption against that discipline which produced the swamp. It’s exactly what the founding fathers warned us all against allowing in the first place.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • BobbyLow

    Your soliloquy is well written but I’m unclear as to what kind of solution you propose. How will this problem be solved? We’ve elected a President who is attempting to do away with a separation of power that has kept our system of government in check for over 200 years. So perhaps you think this is a good thing. Yesterday you were saying that congress has lost their right to govern and I took it as a signal that you did not think this tax package was fair or even necessary. But I’m getting a different impression today. Perhaps you are a one percenter. If so, congratulations and I would understand your position a lot better.

    What’s your answer? Do we not have any government at all? Do we go with some form of dictatorship? You keep mentioning “The Swamp” which I believe is a Steve Bannon/Trumponian Phrase. I believe you supported Trump. I have to ask do you believe Trump is an honest man? Do you believe he tells the truth? Do you think he cares about anyone beside himself?

    I think it’s as much of a simpleton distraction to blame government for all our problems as it is to “target the rich”. Perhaps it’s a combination of both.

    I also believe that one party control is a serious problem. But in any event, as much as I don’t trust big government, I trust big business less. Here comes that check and balance thing again because without it we are screwed.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, this power then colludes with government thus tending to pick the winners and losers. Left to natural mechanisms of internal family decay all wealth concentrations tend to collapse – its government that again stands in the way. Its the rest of us that collectively allow it to happen….but that is just one minor aspect of the much bigger problem of unceasing govt growth.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yep…heard it myself. I am “a nothing”, “with no rights”. Obviously, by extension, nobody else but those types have any rights.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Wishing you more facial snofluff 🙂

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Cryptos following technicals yet though?

  • kim

    Yes, sure it follows technicals, however fundamentals seems to have much bigger impact

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Crypto and new systems.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III