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Coffee Is For Closers!

Coffee Is For Closers!

by The MoleNovember 12, 2012

I just couldn’t do it. It’s Veteran’s Day and I was thinking of taking the afternoon off. Of course I made the mistake of mentioning that in the comment section and almost had a revolt on my hands. But right you were! Much to my surprise I ran into a ton of juicy setups today – far too many to pass up. Since we’re running late in the session let me run through them quickly:

But before we get to the meat – here’s a quick update on soybeans. Thought I had forgotten about that one, did ya? Not a chance – as you may recall we got two opportunities for a short entry and after playing hard to get for a week it finally went on its way. That was another for the books – what a nice run and now it’s time to take profits. If you took this one then congrats! Hard work and discipline always pay off – so keep it up! Who knows how many of today’s setups we’ll talk about in a week or a month from now!

So here are bonds, the 30-year futures contract – inside day! If you don’t know the rules please consult the cheat sheet (there are quite a few more today).

The greenback is also painting an inside day today. You know what to do.

And even the spoos are giving us an inside day + 4 day narrow range combo. Git ‘er done!

Two more freebies since it’s Veteran’s day – here’s GOOG at the 100-day Maginot Line. Is this a last kiss goodbye (LKGB) or are we testing that NLBL? I would use the 100-hour SMA as my entry.

AMZN – inside day + NR4 – I guess when it rains it pours! On the stock front I usually want to see a decisive breach, so let’s see what tomorrow brings.

There’s quite a bit more – please step into my lair:
More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

USD/CAD – excellent configuration – look how are retesting the diagonal resistance line from last week. But…

… we also have an inside day + NR4. This is a great setup – don’t miss it.

NZD/USD – I would take a breach of the 100-hour as an entry here. I know, late to the game but we never got the 100-day touch, so this is our next best opportunity.

Cable – touch of the Maginot Line – I am patiently waiting for a breach of the 25-hour.

EUR/USD – inside day. Again, use the closing range – not the chart.

EUR/JPY – another inside day – juicy one too!

EUR/AUD – I rarely have seen such a series of red candles. We are now at the 100-day SMA and I am mostly interested in a breach higher. But until that happens I must be short with a stop above.

CAD/JPY – some context – we are at the Magint line but….

… another inside day + NR4. Super setup and I am hoping for a long breach tomorrow.


Thought I’d let you down today, silly ratlings? 😉


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • I Bergamot

    Ata Boy, Mole !
    No letting down the crew

  • molecool

    You guys literally shamed me into it!!

  • TheBHBgroup


  • Darth_Gerb

    some people may not know the seriousness of the maginot line.
    (it’s slow today, so a little history is in order)36 French Divisions? that’s some serious sh!t.
    The specification of the defences was very high, with extensive and interconnected bunkercomplexes for thousands of men; there were 45 main forts (grands ouvrages) at intervals of 15 kilometres (9.3 miles), 97 smaller forts (petits ouvrages) and 352 casemates between, with over 100 kilometres (62 miles) of tunnels.


  • ridingwaves

    On DX weekly it could be a textbook H@S with build of right shoulder ending today?

  • Schwerepunkt

    I am well aware of the huge and idiotic investment the French Republic made in the Maginot line. Since the defeat of Napoleon, the French have been preparing for the last war. 

  • Tronacate

    GC dropping for a retest of that 100hr sma…..still short

  • molecool

    Yeah, they forgot you could just drive around them 😉

  • Darth_Gerb
  • Darth_Gerb

    drive?  I looked up a Panther tank.
     With a capacity of 190 US gallons of fuel, a Panther could operate 60–80 mi (97–130 km) on roads and 40–50 mi (64–80 km) cross country[22]

    somehow I think they took the train.

  • captainboom

    Kind of a tall candle today, but AAPL’s setting up for an inside day as well.

  • BobbyLow

    Anyone notice the VIX being down almost 10% today?   

    Now unless one is trading Options and even then what is the VIX good for?

    Please enjoy the following song and replace the word War with VIX.   :)

  • molecool

    The Panther is still considered to be among the top 10 tanks up to date. The Germans were however outsmarted by the Russians who developed the T-34. It was super cheap and they mass produced the hell out of it.

  • Darth_Gerb

    great, now everybody is on the Equity/Bond ratio chart.

  • Darth_Gerb

    Smart Germans.
    imagine if they had a computer and some good code.
    (that’s a joke – I’m sure the slide rule was sufficient)

    The slide rule btw, was invented by an English of Welsh descent.)

  • MrMargin

    Quite on the contrary, I believe. Take a look at the VIX/VXO reading ( It’s at its lowest level since August 2011 and almost at the level we saw at the 2009 bottom. Market maker appear to be quite unconcerned about an immediate crash. SKEW came in at 115.40 yesterday which is below average. I’m still waiting for today’s reading.
    Most other indicators I’m watching are also showing bullish readings. Some admittedly have the potential to become even more bullish, but I’m rather confident that we will see a santa rally soon. Right now it’s only a question of the correct timing as we could see more downside before the bottom is in.

  • molecool

    Haven’t seen you around – how are you?

  • grednfer

    Thats what NR4s through 7s do……volatility Crush! Love it!
    NR4? Thats so Old School! Did you know that Crabel’s strategies have been succesfully employed by market participants for about 30 years?
    Another of his strategies, the better one, says that if ES holds above 1370, its going up. They tested 1372 twice since Sunday’s open.

  • grednfer

    What’s really interesting is how ES lost 70 points in 3 days last week and rthe VIX never broke 20.
    It was weird though…..VIX was low but high premium was still baked in….weekly ES ATM was 14 points on Friday…now its 9.

  • Tronacate

    GC……still short

  • fast and steady

    That was a pretty big buy sifnal in eur/usd zero, right?

  • MrMargin

    I’m fine, thanks for asking. In search of new ways to improve my game, I’ve now transitioned to a momo-oriented pure day trading style which suits me much better than the slower ES-style. It did take some work and quite a few undocumented features to setup NT in a way that supports the speed of execution this requires. I’m still feeling a bit limited by the platform, but I still haven’t found anything that really satisfies all my needs (haven’t tried Tradestation since it doesn’t work with 3rd party brokers). For some other ideas I have in mind, I might simply throw a JBoss into the cloud and hook it up to the DTN feed. That would give me lots of flexibility but come at the cost of a lot of work.

    I’ve also done some work on TDs in response to the high amount of false positives we saw in August and September. My recommendation is to watch the TICK right from the start of the session instead of taking the measurement only at one point 45 minutes in. If it really is a TD, TICK should stay in extreme territory all the time and it also should not fall below that extreme reading later on. If it does fall below by a meaningful amount, you’re likely observing a false positive. By watching the reading right from the start, you will also be able to decide whether or not it is a TD much earlier on in the session and take action accordingly.

  • Tronacate

    GC below 25 day sma

  • BobbyLow

    That’s cool Grednfer and especially cool for whatever works for each individual.  

    The weird part for me is that I can remember back when if the VIX was under 30 it was considered to be low and complacent.   Then it was under 25 and then under 20 and soon it might be under 10.  Come to think of it, I remember back when it was under 10 for quite awhile as well.  

    The VIX of the VIX might be a more reliable indicator then the VIX by itself but the VIX by itself and the way it appears to be gamed just doesn’t do anything for me.

  • Exar Kun

    Was that a false breach at eur/usd?

  • fast and steady

     Strong readings in eur/usd but I still got stopped out of my long.

  • fast and steady

     Almost went short at the breach too.

  • grednfer

    Of all the market instruments…the VIX seems very manipulated to me… its hard to use it as an indicator…….Pricing, Option Pricing, volume and momentum…..those are actual things to me.
    1374 right now and they just slipped it to 1371…….But they have to break 1370…..getting close.

  • Darth_Gerb

    go old school….VXO

  • itcomesupinwaves

    agreud, interesting price action today.  We’ll see if this is continuation or just a stop run here.

  • Exar Kun

     Tough going – I was also stopped out of my longs twice. Now in third and final one. If it gets stop out, might be a trend down day in euro whereby all indicators are void, only trend lines and volumes are useful.

  • fast and steady

     /dx is right at the 150 day sma.

  • StrikeFirst

    Hitler – The Greatest Story Never Told:

    Watch it.


    I admire the hell out of the Germans.

    Truly, the Germans were the true victims of WWII.

    History has it backwards.

  • Joe_Jones
  • fast and steady

     Check the 150 sma as well. It look like we could have a bearish cross on our hands there.

  • Joe_Jones

    Is there an edge re direction when the 2 sma cross each other ?

  • fast and steady

    I was just wondering that myself. Popular wisdom says there is.

  • fast and steady

    Positive divergence in eur/usd zero 5 min chart.

  • fast and steady

    Pretty boring tape on the eur/usd front… sigh

  • itcomesupinwaves

     Yes.. The boys in London are still sleeping.

  • fast and steady

    Just looked at /es (I don’t trade it)
    Is Mole travelling again?

  • AMCabrera

    Saying the truth brother. London is the only place that matters when it comes to finance. IMO new york is or will be a distant second.

  • Exar Kun

    Ok, 3rd one survived, but i took profits early (got to go out…). Verdict’s still out if its a true breach downwards.

  • Darth_Gerb

    For any bears looking for a big red candle today….[you may be disappointed]

  • Schwerepunkt

    Or maybe a waterfall to 1250?

  • molecool

    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸